FPL comebacks: The forwards hoping to make an impact

March’s international break has given Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers a fortnight to think about the final stretch of fixtures.

The Double Gameweek 34 announcement has furthered the need for medium-term planning.

This mini-series of articles focuses on the fit-again (or almost fit) assets of FPL. These are the players who could have an impact in the final quarter of the campaign.

Having already looked at some returning defenders and midfielders, we now switch attention to forwards.

RASMUS HOJLUND (£7.0m)

• Club: Manchester United
• Reason for absence: Muscle injury
• Estimated return date: Gameweek 30

Just as this 21-year-old Dane was starting to showcase his talents, the momentum was curtailed by a muscle injury. Manchester United’s £72 million summer signing failed to score in his first 14 FPL appearances but five Champions League goals were encouraging.

Once his volley turned a 0-2 festive deficit into a 3-2 win versus Aston Villa, Hojlund suddenly couldn’t stop scoring.

He now holds the record of being the youngest-ever player to net in six successive Premier League games.

Saturday’s trip to Brentford offers a chance to reach seven, with a probable Double Gameweek 37 making the fixture run from Gameweek 33 onwards particularly enticing.

Owned by just 4.4% of Fantasy managers overall, he’s a differential to consider for those chasing late-season rank leaps.

His underlying numbers are Jekyll and Hyde, however.

The good: his rate of big chances (0.91 per 90 minutes) is very similar to that of Ollie Watkins (£9.0m).

The bad: his minutes per overall chance (one every 51 minutes) is one of the worst among all regularly starting forwards.

At least those quality opportunities are arriving at a decent pace but you’d like to see a boost to his wider figures.

Above: All forwards, ranked by big chances throughout 2023/24

Elsewhere, owners of team-mate Alejandro Garnacho (£4.9m) shouldn’t be too concerned about a threat to his starting status from Hojlund’s return. The Spaniard has begun 18 in a row, usually in tandem with Hojlund.

CHRISTOPHER NKUNKU (£7.2m)

• Club: Chelsea
• Reason for absence: Hamstring injury
• Estimated return date: Gameweek 31

Meanwhile, Nkunku – another big-money pre-season arrival – had to wait six months for his competitive debut. Since then, the knee injury has been followed by hip and hamstring problems, restricting him to two league starts.

“It’s difficult for him. When he arrived in pre-season, he was flying on the pitch and in training in America. Then he got the knee injury and now it’s nearly eight months later. Even when he was ready to be involved again, he couldn’t be the same as before. That is the risk.

“We have in our head the potential best Nkunku that everyone knows from the Bundesliga, but he can’t be that player. That is why it is unfair to judge because the situations are completely different.” – Mauricio Pochettino

The first of these was alongside Nicolas Jackson (£6.8m), so the in-form latter won’t necessarily see his FPL appeal dampened by Nkunku’s return. No, it’s the accumulation of nine yellow cards causing harm there.

One of the two operating on the left flank, and the other up top, is a very viable tactic.

Chelsea are the sole side with 11 remaining fixtures and, as a result, the Blues are set to have two Double Gameweeks over the final four rounds. Their chase for European football needs this 26-year-old French international to remind fans why he’s so highly regarded.

Fantasy managers need convincing, too, not so much in terms of ability but that the Reece James-esque (£5.3m) fitness issues are behind him.

MATHEUS CUNHA (£5.5m)

• Club: Wolverhampton Wanderers
• Reason for absence: Hamstring injury
• Estimated return date: Gameweek 30

One forward that has scored at Stamford Bridge is Wolves’ Cunha, whose Gameweek 23 hat-trick was his final full match until a hamstring issue flared up.

In fact, the Brazilian had been on a particularly fruitful run since late November, bagging seven goals and four assists during 11 league outings.

It meant he was ranked as the fifth highest-scoring forward pre-injury. Not only that, Cunha had the joint-third most shots on target (31) and created the third-most big chances (seven) amongst forwards.

He’s a bargain, considering that Double Gameweek 34 allows Wolves to sit on top of our fixture ticker between Gameweeks 31 and 35. And before that, it’s an Aston Villa defence that has conceded the season’s joint-fourth most big chances (78).

If he can get some minutes in the Villa game, a start against struggling Burnley is looking promising.

JOAO PEDRO (£5.2m)

• Club: Brighton and Hove Albion
• Reason for absence: Thigh injury
• Estimated return date: Gameweek 30

Priced similarly to Cunha, what Pedro offers is penalties. He’s scored four from four, meaning this comeback will deny Pascal Gross (£6.5m) the opportunity to keep taking them as he did away to Spurs.

Then again, even a pre-injured Pedro wasn’t always around. His 12 starts and 11 cameos are unreliable for FPL managers, failing to begin more than two successive matches until the six-game run that preceded his thigh problem.

As both Evan Ferguson (£5.7m) and Danny Welbeck (£5.7m) are fit and available, expect an easing-in process.

Above: All outfield players, ranked by shots inside the box between Gameweeks 1 and 23

By Gameweek 23, Pedro ranked joint-sixth overall for penalty area shots (44) but with only nine big chances. Four of those were penalties.

The other main dent to his appeal is that Brighton sit bottom of our fixture ticker over the next five Gameweeks thanks to meetings with Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City. Their to-be-arranged Chelsea clash will likely form a Double Gameweek 37, so he’s perhaps one to revisit come Gameweek 35.

RAUL JIMENEZ (£5.0m)

• Club: Fulham
• Reason for absence: Hamstring injury
• Estimated return date: Ready to start

Finally, a forward who is already back in action.

We mention him here because of his potential to eat into the minutes of a budget favourite: Rodrigo Muniz (£4.6m).

Seven goals in seven matches rightly make Muniz the main man for now, assuming he’s fit.

Jimenez had his own early winter purple patch, however, with four goals in five. He’s also a favourite of Marco Silva’s.

January loanee Armando Broja (£4.9m) also provides competition but he dropped out of the squad in Gameweek 29, so looks third in line.

As FPL managers remember from Blank Gameweek 29’s catastrophes, Fulham have pulled off some superb recent home wins. Yet their next two appearances are on the road and three of the remaining four Craven Cottage encounters are against Liverpool, Man City and Newcastle United. No Double Gameweeks are on the horizon, either.

Muniz should still be first in the queue for now but come the end of the season, when there’ll presumably be little for Fulham to play for, you would not be surprised at a sentimental start or two for Jimenez and maybe Broja.