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A Tale of Three Players – Lessons Learned From Last Season

Numerous Fantasy Football managers suffered a dreadful start to last season, with many failing to get a single goal or clean sheet from their initial squad during the opening few Gameweeks.

So what lessons can be learned this time around? To help out I’ll take a look at three midfielders that Fantasy manager may be considering. Whether they be new to the Premier League, a cheap differential or a heavy hitter with a point to prove, each offers Fantasy managers a tough choice to make as they look to get 2016/17 off to a flier. 

Eden Hazard

Hazard has been Fantasy royalty over the years, with 37 goal and 36 assists across his first three season’s at Chelsea. Last year though injury and poor form scuppered his heavy hitter status. However, with a strong end to 2015/16,  a good Euro 16 and three goals in pre-season games, many are considering drafting in the midfielder.

But if there is one thing that is commonplace in the world of Fantasy Football, it is that Eden Hazard will start a season slowly.

In the opening four Gameweeks last season, Hazard’s attacking contribution was a solitary assist, in 2014/15 it was a single goal and in the year before that, he added neither.

It is worth remembering that an inspirational goal in pre-season against Barcelona last term was one reason over half of managers put their faith in the Belgian, only to be left disappointed.

Lesson to learn: Despite good recent form, Hazard is a player that has yet to start a Premier League season well. He could be a player that is best avoided for a month or so.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan

Like West Ham’s Dimitri Payet, Mkhitaryan comes to the Premier League on the back of a strong pedigree abroad.

But will the Manchester United midfielder be another Payet, or will he take time to settle?

First of all let’s look at the tale of Payet. In his final campaign with Marseille he accrued 21 assists as well as seven goals. Nevertheless his ownership was low in Gameweek 1, with no Premier League experience and a tough away clash at Arsenal. That soon changed, as he racked up four goals and three assists over the first eight Gameweeks to cement his place in many Fantasy managers’ team of the season.

There are similar reservations around drafting in Mkhitaryan, despite finishing last term at Borussia Dortmund with 11 goals and 15 assists. A comparatively small 13% of Fantasy Premier League managers have drafted him in.

The majority of his Bundesliga attacking returns came from wide areas and it is on the right side of midfield that the Armenian is expected to line up for Manchester United,  despite only being introduced in stoppage time in the Red Devils’ Community Shield win over Leicester.

Lesson to learn: Like Payet, Makhitaryan has all the ingredients of success early on for those that invest in him. With a 9.5m price tag he also can easily be downgraded if it looks like he will need time to adjust to the Premier League. 

Nathan Redmond

Everybody loves an out of position differential, especially if it is a player listed as a midfielder who could conceivably play up front.

Redmond, who has joined Southampton from Norwich, offers a key out of position, budget friendly option for Fantasy managers to consider.

But haven’t we been here before? Last season Theo Walcott was relatively cheap for an Arsenal midfielder, who looked set to play as a striker ahead of Olivier Giroud. Sadly, that was not the case as he failed to start any of the Gunners’ first three matches, playing just 50 minutes in total against West Ham, Crystal Palace and Liverpool. For Gameweek 1 this was particularly galling for the one in ten FPL managers that captained him. After one or two Gameweeks he was shipped out, his price plummeted and he was barely mentioned again as a Fantasy prospect for the rest of the campaign.

Investors in Redmond could be set for similar disappointment. Despite Southampton boss Claude Puel talking up his credentials as a striker Redmond still faces stiff competition for a starting berth. With Shane Long and Charlie Austin offering options up top and Dusan Tadic playing in an advanced role as well, it would be no surprise to see Redmond benched early on this season.

Lesson learned: Question marks around a player’s starting position should be heeded. Redmond may very well grab a starting berth, but the odds are stacked against him early on. 

103 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Thanks for this. I'd forgotten all about Hazard's poor starts to campaigns. Nevertheless like a lab ratin an electrode filled box I'll be once again setting myself up for a shock. Maybe next season I'll learn 😉

  2. InvertedWinger
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Didn't Hazart start the season with 3 MoTM awards in his first 3 Chelsea league games in his first season? Sith multiple goals and assists in those 3? Including a goal and assist vs Newcastle in gw2 if I remember correctly.

    1. asquishypotato
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Yeh, double game week with 3 assists and a goal or something similar - took him out of my team and everyone in my league had him and Ivan! Never caught up

  3. Piggs Boson
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Terrific article Concentration 🙂

    Don't agree about Hazard though.

    We're very good at spotting patterns and drawing conclusions from them, but I think in many cases we draw meaning where there is none. Seeing a face in a curtain, thinking Alli is only good away from home, Hazard starting poorly.

    Hazard has been slow to start in previous seasons but that doesn't mean the same will happen every season. There could be hundreds of reasons why he started slowly each season, and any combination of those. Fixtures could be one, or the opposing RB could have studied Hazard in the summer, making sure he had him contained when the season began. Maybe both... we don't know.

    Towards the end of last season, and at the Euros, he was also showing strong signs of a return. The two goals against Real Madrid were just icing on an already plump cake. He looks to be gelling well in Conte's team, so with his fixtures I'm willing to jump on board, putting superstition to one side.

    1. Zikry
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      The one great thing about Conte is he is a brilliant man manager. At Juve he made them all believe that they were the best at times when they were way off the mark (finishing 7th back to back seasons). He obviously did the same at Italy and with Hazard he has a player that he will push to get the best out of. If people want a bargain Chelsea player look at Oscar; Conte LOVED him while at Juve and Oscar's two goals against Juve in the group stage only added to that love affair.

    2. Grand Thibauto
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      First season. Roberto Di Matteo made whole sale changes to the side. Oscar, Hazard they were brought in. I remember him assisting a Ivanovic goal on his debut being quite selfless. Should have been a goal. Anyway, that's not a poor start.

      Second Season. Mourinho's arrival. He was getting better than previous season match after match. And I think he was given a much bigger role by Mourinho than what Matteo and Benitez had given him before.

      Third Season- Costa and Fabregas came. Hazard blanked the first and third fixtures if I remember correctly. He didn't blank in any of the remaining first 7-8 fixtures afailk. That's not much of a poor start.

      Fourth Season- Nobody was even in form except Willian.

      You can't get him so easily at 10.5 when his early performance will get early suitors.

    3. Concentration
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Amusingly, I currently have Hazard in my team!

      I'm of the mindset he is due a good start, but was just making the case that he has a habit in recent years of starting slowly. Some managers will be swayed my this sort of statistic.

      I am normally one who does, but something telling me otherwise this year.

  4. ROOTY7
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Gonna go Kane GW1 with 0.5 ITB if Ibra hits.
    Thoughts?

    1. EpicManager
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      I am looking at doing that too. Whats putting me off is that evertons defence is much better than bournsmouth's.

    2. Zikry
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Vardy with 1.5 ITB 🙂

      1. kingmig84
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        This!

    3. nobwak
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      And what are you going to do if Kane AND Ibra hit the ground running?

  5. Jøssy ⭐
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Cheers mate! Thanks for reassuring me that I shouldn't panic that I'm paying 1.5M extra to not have Redmond.

    1. Concentration
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      I think Tadic is the perfect player for a Puel team and wouldn't surprise me if he reaches double figures for goals and assists this season.

      He is by far the best Southampton attacking asset to have.

      1. Jøssy ⭐
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        I concur! I've been beating that drum all pre-season. He's one of the most nailed players in my squad.

  6. Leeroy357
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Any thoughts?
    0.5m ITB

    Courtois - Jakupovic
    Shaw - Pieters - Friend - Kaboul - Cathcart
    Hazard - Martial - Deulofeu - Townsend - Capoue
    Aguero - Kane - Gray

  7. _Freddo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Interesting article but with very little weight behind it.

    By this logic, everyone should pick and captain Mahrez for the first month as he likes a fast start, stay well clear of Harry Kane for 10 games as he won't score, don't even consider Firmino until Christmas as he's also a slow starter, get on Ayew because he scored at Chelsea on day one last season and start the season with a load of mid priced options because they all started stronger than the premium players who took forever to get going, oh, most importantly, don't be too scared about going against the captain polls or captaining Aguero because the results were poor for about the first 8 weeks last year.

    The only lesson learned from last year is not to be stubborn and be flexible enough to adapt to any changing trend.

  8. Ber2k
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Redmond does look likely to start though.

    I can't choose between Deulofeu and Mirallas.

    1. nobwak
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Delboy all day for me.

      1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        Agreed maybe on freekicks as well worth the risk.

  9. How Mina You
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Interesting article, and having picked the following team, I would be interested on any insight into where I can make changes. Looking to bring in a Arsenal/Spurs attacker in if possible:

    Adrian - Mandanda
    Terry - Stones - Kone - Evans - Friend
    Hazard - Martial - Ayew - Townsend - Redmond
    Aguero - Musa - Gray

    1. markhickey10
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Redmond and Mandanda might not start

  10. markhickey10
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Aguero and Jansen or Zlatan and Kane?

  11. markhickey10
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Will Jansen start?

  12. Baines on Toast...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    That is not true about Haz. He got 20 points in their opening double a few years back.

  13. TheOrangeMan
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    How crap is this team and how will I male it less crap?

    Hennessy Adrian
    Valencia Baines Friend Walker Evans
    Hazard Eriksen Deulofeu Bolasie Downing
    Aguero Rooney Long

    1. TheOrangeMan
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Make even

    2. kingmig84
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Rooney makes it crap & your 5th mid is too expensive.

  14. Inkloppwetrust
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Don't you think rate my teams should be. 1-15 points if you like the players (1 point each) and 1-5 for balance

    Could easily catch on My team is a solid 20. Just saying 🙂

    1. Inkloppwetrust
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Infact my team is about 13 for players and 2 for balance 🙁

  15. DarylT
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Rule number one is always choose players whom you know will start

    Rule number two is not to forget the first rule

    Both miki and Redmond violate rule number one for me so nope no considering either for gw1 at least!

    1. LanzaLions
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      can you get Miki in just doing one transfer?

    2. JÆKS ⭐
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Redmond is only 6.0 and will play OOP (also expected to start), would rather take a gamble on that than hoping he doesn't do anything

  16. klopptimusprime
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Which one is better and how could I improve
    Mandanda (Jaku)
    Stones Walker Shaw (Friend) (Paredes)
    Martial Firmino Deulofeu Hazard Eriksen
    Aguero Gray (Grabben)
    or
    Mandanda (Jaku)
    Stones Walker Shaw Friend (Paredes)
    Firmino Deulofeu Hazard Eriksen (Capoue)
    Aguero Ibra (Grabben)

    option 1 has back up defender which is always needed
    *should stones play gw1

    1. kingmig84
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Don't like your keepers. Option 2

      1. klopptimusprime
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 9 months ago

        who would you get at gk

  17. kingmig84
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Madness to swap Ibra for Vardy? Even though Ibra is now at 37% ownership, with Vardy in my team I have 1.5m ITB. Gives me flexibility if anything happens. Plus, if Ibra does outscore Vardy in GW1 I can jump straight on the bandwagon. Someone help! Please.

    1. HenkieBoy
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Good point. Nervous about the same issue.

      Not sure what ill go for.

      (Not much help here)

    2. Are you Shaw?
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      well... i was with Vardy instead, until Pogba was signed...

      i really doubt that Ibra won't score with Rooney, Martial, Mkhitaryan, and POGBA assisting him...

      especially that Martial, Miki, and Pogba love to run at defenders to free up the strikers and square it for a tap in..

      but that's just my analysis of United's attacking play

  18. Tobi-Agboola
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Here's my draft I'm m=now worried about Redmond any suggestions?

    Foster Jaku
    Teryy Shaw Morgan (Francis) (Paredes)
    Hazard Firmino Lamela Redmond (Capoue)
    Kun Ibra Gray

    1. HenkieBoy
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Personally i think the team is great

    2. Concentration
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Redmond is a far better fit than Austin into a Puel system, so he does have a good chance of starting.

      The manager tends to play a front three of two wide forwards and a slightly deeper single striker.

      Playing Tadic as a false nine, with Redmond left and Long right works better than Austin in any of these positions. Rodriguez is probably Redmond's biggest rival for starts.

  19. RomeluStormzy
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Almost final draft...

    HEATON (Foster)
    SHAW MORGAN FRIEND (Baines Kone)
    HAZARD ERIKSON TOWNSEND FERGHOULI (Capoue)
    AGUERO IBRA GRAY

  20. asvpxmicky
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Will Kone play now Williams is off to Everton?

  21. Hakuna Morata
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Hi Please rate this team.

    De Gea (Jacku)
    Stones || Valencia || Williams || Evans || Paredes
    Hazard || Sigurdsson || Ayew || Redmond || Leko
    Gray || Costa || Aguero

    Would you upgrade Costa to Vardy or Kane? or any other change ?
    I have 2 M extra for any upgrade

    1. nobwak
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      I would get rid of Ayew now that he's moved, and I wouldn't have Leko personally. Other than that it looks pretty decent.
      Probably do De Gea >> Courtois? You have 2 Man U defensive assets at the moment, and no Chelsea.

  22. nobwak
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    For GW1 only...

    A) Mahrez & Kane.
    B) Mkhi and Vardy & 1.0 ITB.

    1. TATTOOED_2
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      I'm in a very similar boat myself. I think Martial and Vardy would be the safer option but I find myself in the position of being unable to drop Zlatan. Too scared haha

  23. Rich_20
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Interesting article, well written. I happen to hold the opposite view on all three. I think Hazard will start quick, mhiki will be eased into the team but good when he establishes himself and redmond will almost certainly start, I dont think this situation compares to Walcott at all

    1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      I suppose he is fast and English like Walcott and a converted winger/striker. He also looks like him a bit!

    2. SADIO SANÉ
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      Completely agree with this - I'm going with Hazard and Redmond from the start and will be keeping an eye on Mkhi.

  24. TATTOOED_2
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Like a lot of people, I imagine, I put Williams into my back line today when I heard the move to Everton was pretty much done but I'm having second thoughts now. Their first fixture isn't great and he hasn't played a minute of pre-season. This years FPL neuroticism is crippling me haha

    1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 9 months ago

      I agree I waiting for week 2 where I transfer Morgan out and get Williams in.
      I am not afraid of taking an 8 point hit to get any bandwagons either if need be.

  25. drwinston001
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Any comments here?

    Courtois / Jakupovic
    Shaw / Walker / Stones / Friend / McAuley
    Hazard / Lamela / Townsend / Redmond / Capoue
    Aguero / Ibra / Gray

    0.5m ITB

    Midfield a bit light?

  26. Pinturicchio
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Judging players' or even teams' "slow starts" to the season means relying on a tiny sample of "starts" to draw the conclusion. There are reasons to be cool on Hazard, but this is not a good one.

  27. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Personally I think it is an article full of biases.

    1) Hazard ----- may start centrally which could have yet more bearing on his output, furthermore he seems like the only Chelsea attacking player worth getting at the moment he could easily be swapped for Mkhitaryan!

    2) Redmond ---- like Mkhitaryan can be swapped for another player of a similar price or lower (albeit at a different price range. Furthermore Long may be eased back into contention after his efforts in the euros. Redmond had no such issues.

  28. ididnt
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    All ratings gratefully received on this team after about 1k drafts...:

    DDG / Heaton

    Stones / Paredes / Baines / Walker / Pieters

    Hazard / Redmond / Firminio / Bolasie / Ramirez

    Augero / Vardy / Caroll

    Thinking upgrading Redmond > Tadic
    Hazard > Oscar.

    Cheers.

  29. tm245
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    I think the article has touched a nerve because it focuses on widely considered players and underscores the lack of certainty surrounding them, but for me the lesson learned is that every season is different so these sorts of comparisons play on the emotional more than the rational side. There just isnt enough evidence to back up season to season patterns, so the change in circumstamces for Hazard and Redmond make them legitimate picks.

    Except that Aguero in gw8 is an essential captain, nothing remains the same for our players.

  30. MIDDLEMAN
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 9 months ago

    Too template?
    Double utd defence risky?
    Better cheap def/mf options?
    Keeping 0.5 in the bank for bandwagons...

    Heaton
    Shaw Valencia stones
    Haz coutinho deulofeu redmond
    Zlagrayuero

    Foster pieters amat capoue