Spot the Differential

Spot the Differential – Lacazette can match Aubameyang output

The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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3,777 Comments Post a Comment
  1. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Fraser is an interesting pick

    1. Helia
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I like it. I think he will more than justify a 5.5 pricetag

    2. captainjilflex
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      He has been in my team from the start. Good player

  2. Lumberjack
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Is Coleman a better option than Bavies in defense? Currently on the latter but don’t want a 6m non-starter.

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Bavies will start. Everton looked shaky at the back. I’d stick with Bavies

    2. Fantastisk
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      No

    3. Lumberjack
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Good stuff, thanks both

    4. Nüno Vippan
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I like Coleman. Also has good schedule

  3. Lilac Breasted Roller
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Tempted to go Laca instead of Aubameyang

    Budget/Bench options: Cedric, Chalobah, Costa still good to go?

    1. Kippers
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      On sun dream team Lac is 1.5m cheaper! Crazy.

      Swapped to him now.. hope I dont regret it.

  4. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    1) luiz or pva or Shaw?
    2) arnie , Zaha or Tosun?
    3) can I “cover” palace attack with pva? If so, I can choose between arnie or Tosun

    1. n-doggg
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I’d go 1. Could be a great way into Chelsea defence with. Bit of a risk but lots of option there to move to.

      2&3 - all good picks. I’d go

      Luiz
      Arnie
      Zaha

    2. Royal5
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Tomkins/Zaha

    3. ace
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      PVA & Tosun

  5. n-doggg
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Who to fill gaps with. Playing 343 most of the time:

    A. Luiz and Pickford
    B. Boly and DDG

    XXX, 4.0
    VVD, Mendy, XXX, WanB, Bednarek
    Salah, mane, b.silva, richarlison, gunnar
    Kun, king, arnie

    Thanks all

    1. Cofinho
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      A

    2. Hoofedgod
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      B

  6. Atimis
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Zaha/Arnie to King or Jota in mid?
    Other 5.5 than Luiz? Maybe some United def? Or maybe Coleman/PVA?

    Rui / Hamer
    Mendy / Robo / Luiz / Peltier / WB
    Salah / Mane / BSilva / Richa / Stephens
    Kun / Arnie / Zaha

  7. Helia
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Was searching for a reason to switch aubs to Lacazette. Needed that confidence booster. Thanks.

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Both are likely to get 2pts anyway, better to invest less 😉

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      They’ll both still be there ready to buy in GW3, with maybe 1 goal scored max. Probably 0 goals 0 assists and hopefully a price drop, ready for good fix’s from there on out

      1. Blanka
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        I think if Laca gets any returns in the first couple of games he'll be at risk of rising, due to being only 9.5

  8. Peggi
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    my final decision comes down to, any clear better option?

    A. Arnie & Sanchez
    or
    B. Aubameyang & Maddison/Jota

    1. FPL Hitman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      B for me

    2. Marquis-Cha-Cha
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Going with A.

  9. Tree House
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Which Fulham 4.5 defender has most attacking potential? Fosu-Mensa nailed?

    1. Blanka
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Chambers?

  10. Azathoth
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Who you suggest from Burnley's defs?

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Mee

      1. Royal5
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        h

      2. Jafooli
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        A bit boastful that Holmes...

        1. Holmes
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          😆

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Mee or Tarko

    3. Cok3y5murf
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Lowton

    4. seewhyaxe
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      ward

  11. Atom&Humber
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    A) PVA and Fraser
    B) Tomkins and jota

    1. super zlatan
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      B

    2. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      A

  12. Drallep
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    I have 2x £4.0m defenders and 2x £4.5m midfielders.

    Someone convince me to see reason.

    I have Bednarak, Wan Bissaka, Stephens and Hudson-Odoi.

    Only CHO not likely to start?

    1. FPL_adict
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      There is a lot more value in 5.0 midfielders (Ralls/ Cairney/ Neves/ Costa?) than the 4.5 ones. I prefer a 5.0 mid as my first sub.

  13. La vida FPL
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Narrowed it down to these 2, please help:

    A) Robertson, Shaw, Mane, King

    B) TAA, S.Cook, Pedro, Aubamayeng

    1. MDK
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      A

    2. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      A

    3. Limbo
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      A - never hit it faster.

  14. FPL Hitman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Cairney or Ralls?

    1. super zlatan
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Cairney.

    2. FPL_adict
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      i have gone with Ralls. Seems to be Cardiff's main talisman

  15. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    I started with Ryan Fraser for GW1 last year... was I a year too early?

    Can’t get him this year, if he scores I’ll take Kings Assist, and if he assists I’ll take Kings goal.

    1. Pompel
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Strange logic?

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Is there any other type of logic

        1. Holmes
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Fraser scores, Daniels get an assist. King scores, Daniels get an assist.

          1. Pompel
            • 10 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            Conclusion: get both

  16. super zlatan
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Anyone with mané considering a last minute reshuffle to get Firmino instead?

    1. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I did it after the Torino game, for several reasons.

      1. Pompel
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        PLz elaborate. I'm torn on this issue - Firmino should be more nailed and probably the better long term choice. Only thing that keeps me off is that he'll get 1 point less per goal this year and no cs points. That would be 20+ deficit right there compared to last season.

        1. Cofinho
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          With this Sturridge form Firmino will play for 60 70 mins

        2. Shifty
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          ? wasn't Firmino also a striker last year?

        3. The Wizard of Ozil
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Pompel He Was a forward last season too

          1. Pompel
            • 10 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            OK, thanks for setting me straight!

      2. super zlatan
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        BF...

        Would you rather have

        Mané and king

        Or

        Jota and firmino

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I have both plus Salah

    3. Lumberjack
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I’ve gone Firmino, seems more reliable imo

    4. Do I Not Like Orange
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Na, would make the cash allocation in my team too unbalanced.

    5. n-doggg
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Mane as placeholder for Eriksen/hazard/sane/sterling. More options to move to than firm

      1. Cofinho
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Thiiis

      2. theswallow1965
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Same here but placeholder for KDB as I kept 0.5 back

  17. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Booo Fraser differential exposed

  18. Shifty
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    haha have Townsend too...hope he is a good enough differential.

  19. 1justlookin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Final dilemma,

    Shaw and Hoedt

    or

    Bailly and Bednarek

  20. Dele
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Pick one...

    A) B.Silva & PVA

    B) Ozil & Tomkins

    1. super zlatan
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I like A.

    2. Marquis-Cha-Cha
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      A

  21. No Salah
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Richarlison or Fraser ( bank the 1 m )

  22. MrYev
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    A) Sanchez + Jota + Zohore

    B) Aguero + Austin + Mahrez

  23. GOONER
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Who is the best 4.5m Midfielder?

    1. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I have Schneiderlin and expect square root of minus zero

  24. GOONER
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Will Pickford start GW1?

    1. Bullet Eder
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Just get Stek has second keeper. Doesn't matter.

  25. Tim T
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Lacazette wont start vs city though.

    1. aspilcueta
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Where do you get this from? He's the first choice ST. Auba will flank him on the left.

  26. My neck my back my Saed Kol…
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    A) Pickford a good set and forget option?
    B) mane and Arnie or Mhiki and firm?

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      No
      The first

    2. n-doggg
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      For the first 9 fixtures yes

  27. GOONER
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Is Alexander-Arnold nailed for GW1?

    1. Cofinho
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      He is

  28. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    A) 3-5-2 with Richarlison

    B) 3-4-3 with King up top

    1. GOONER
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      B for me

  29. Plebby
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Consensus on Firm starting?

    1. GambO
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Sturridge may start big involvement preseason - assisting and scoring...

      1. Plebby
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Am hoping Klop wants to start with a bang

  30. Sir_Durs8
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Think my team is pretty set. Just not sure on this last decision.

    As my 6.5m mid, do I go:

    A) Richarlison
    B) Jota
    C) Other

    1. super zlatan
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      A