Spot the Differential

Spot the Differential – Lacazette can match Aubameyang output

The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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3,777 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Backonthecoupon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    No one going with Eriksen?

    1. Willllsonnn!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      I am

    2. George Sillett
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Hush

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Not yet, definitelybat some point though... 3.0m cheaper than Kane is actually a joke, such good value

      1. Andy_Social
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        I reckon Moura's better value for the first couple of weeks.

        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • 14 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Can he be trusted to perform though... but at that price he is low risk alright

        2. Jusagoras
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          What has he done to show that?

    4. Andrew
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      I am

    5. Valar(Keith)
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      I am. Should be 10+

  2. Willllsonnn!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Walker worth the extra .5 over Mendy?

    1. GE
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Nope

    2. Springbank
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      No

    3. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      No, I'd say Mendy is worth 0.5 more than Walker.

    4. Snikii
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      obviously

    5. Willllsonnn!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Thanks chaps. Mendy been in my mind since WC even though he didn't play.. gut instinct

  3. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Best 5.0 defender?

    1. GE
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Pereira or Keane

    2. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Sakho

    3. Springbank
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      TAA

    4. There's Always One!
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Arnold if he is 1st choice

      1. Paul Psychic Octopus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        But because he isn't means he isn't the best 5.0m defender

    5. KujaliaFC
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Bertrand? Caveat emptor, I don't have him in my team.

    6. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      A burnley one look at that lovely 0-0 they got in turkey

  4. Pringle
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Who do you prefer? Coleman or Bailly?

    1. GE
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Coleman

    2. There's Always One!
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Coleman for a chance of attacking returns

    3. Springbank
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Coleman easily

    4. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Coleman, in my team. Went shaw over Bailly. Will sell for someone else ina week or two

    5. @FPLMason
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Coleman

  5. adased
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Bottomed, will Jack Simpson be likely to start?

    1. adased
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      And bednarek

    2. Springbank
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Don’t know who that is sorry!

      1. adased
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        XD some 4.0bournemouth def

      2. Andy_Social
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        no and no

    3. Infamy, Infamy
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      He was supposed to be going on loan to Rangers.

  6. JasonG123
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Final decisions:
    (A) Zaha or Arnautovic
    (B) PvA, D.Luiz or Bailly?
    (C) Best 4.5m mid?

    1. @FPLMason
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      A Zaha
      B D Luiz
      C Lerma but won't play GW1

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Arnie
      Coleman
      McDonald (Fulham)

    3. vartshk
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Arnie
      Pva for nailedness
      Find .5

  7. @FPLMason
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    What's your take on the best 6.5 mid to have going into the season?
    There's quite a few with Richarlison, Jota, Maddisson and Sessegnon up for consideration. Who do you think will be that best 6.5 mid pick and why?

  8. Mikei
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Yota, Richarlison or Sessegnon?
    Who´s the best option?

    1. There's Always One!
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Only time will tell

  9. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    A vvd
    B Allison
    C taa
    D Robertson

    Money does matter

    1. @FPLMason
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. Gabbiadini
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      robbo

  10. aydeepee69
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Bottomed...
    My biggest dilemma
    1 prem striker + king + tosun
    OR
    2 prem strikers + bench fodder

    I have Salah in MF as reg captain

    Any thoughts?

  11. Joe
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Hey all, just finalising my team, would appreciate your input on this last question:

    A) Bavies and 5.0 mid (already have Cairney) OR
    B) 4.5 defender and 6.5 mid (already have Richarlison)?

    Thanks!

  12. Gabbiadini
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    pick 2 of Jota, Arnie, Zaha and King

    1. Springbank
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Jota + King

      1. Gabbiadini
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        have the opposite currently, reasons as to why you think that?

  13. Fire Chief Moe
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    A)Ederson +4, Davies, Jota or
    B) Foster/Fab, Luiz, Bilva

  14. Bojaninho
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Any one tempted by Seri at Fulham?

    1. @FPLMason
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Not really. Good player. Wont set the FPL world on fire though.

    2. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Mitrovic better pick

  15. Tree House
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Chances of Cedric starting please?

    Thanks!

    1. There's Always One!
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      30%

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      The fact that the game is on Sunday... extra day makes all the difference. He needs games to get fit.

      I’d say he’s starting

  16. Tauruspt
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Current defence
    Mendy robbo tomkins WB peltier

    If Robbo is a rotation risk is worth down grading Kepa to 4.5

    Use the 1mil to go TAA For peltier?
    Or stick

    1. There's Always One!
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Is Robertson a rotation risk

      1. Tauruspt
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Sounds like moreno will
        get a sniff at least

  17. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Re: 1) Eriksen or Lacazette
    2)Someone convince me on Richarlison
    3)Best 4.5 set and forget keeper

    1. Firmino
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      3) Patricio

    2. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Laca if you have no other arsenal

      Could be a good punt with decent fixtures, after his rest could show good form like start of last season under a manager who knew how to get the best out of him. Sigurdsson there to supply him too

      Probably Patricio as he is nailed and playing in a decent defence with decent fixtures

  18. There's Always One!
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Is TAA 1st choice RB? I'd love to save the 1m over Robertson

    1. Springbank
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Yes

    2. potatoace
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Think he will be, yes. But only just. There will be rotation.

      1. Firmino
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        But only when UCL starts I reckon

        1. potatoace
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Yeah, probs

  19. AriseSirGiggsy
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Reid v Jota

    Mins: 3997 v 3672
    Benched:1 v 0
    Goals: 19 v 17
    Assists 7 v 6
    Price 5.5 v 6.5

    .... do i dare pick a Cardiff striker???

    1. suddenorgan
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      fixtures are against them unfortunately

  20. Ribus
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Best 4.5 keeper combo?
    Currently on Patricio / Foster.
    But many go with Pat / Fab..

    1. luke25
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      4.5 rotation always seems ideal but always so difficult to get the correct one, saying that, I think Fab and Rico (if he plays)

  21. @FPL_Chess
      5 years, 10 months ago

      What to remember about differentials, is that if they clean up it doesn't hurt you because of the low ownership. So don't wreck your team trying to get David's troublesome threesome into your side.

    • BobB
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      I've been seduced into replacing Auba with Lacazette, enabling me to upgrade King to Vardy....any thoughts?

      1. AriseSirGiggsy
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        is Vardy fit?
        He has a pretty horrible opening fixture

        1. BobB
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          I'm not going to lose sleep if he misses GW1....setting up for the long term.

    • SEXY SOLO SAUCE FOR THE LAS…
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Last question guys! A or B please?

      A) B.Silva in a 3-5-2
      B) Arnie in a 3-4-3

      Thanks

      1. Jonny HOW SON?
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        a

      2. Firmino
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        B. Silva

        1. SEXY SOLO SAUCE FOR THE LAS…
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Cheers boys x

    • farqy
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Is mata worth a pint for tonight? Is he even likely to play?

      1. farqy
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        *punt / pint... Either or

      2. Forever In Our Shadow
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        If its your round. 😉

    • money face bandwagon
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      pva or coleman

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Coleman for me, just. PVA easily could beat him though

      2. KujaliaFC
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Polyvinyl acetate for me.

      3. BrockLanders
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        PVA

      4. All Bäcks
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Coleman

      5. money face bandwagon
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        thanks for reply!

        1. Gabbiadini
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Luiz, 5.5? Huddersfield first GW

    • Jonny HOW SON?
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Just an advice for everybody:
      make your moves in time, the game might get frozen hours before the deadline 😉

      1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        I wonder how many will be stuck with auto complete teams?

    • Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Is shaw likely to start for man united because of bailly's injury doubt I switched.

    • KujaliaFC
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Are there starting defenders besides Obiwan and Peltier?

      1. Firmino
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Bednarek maybe

      2. luke25
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Quite a few I think, most teams will be playing 3 or 4 defenders 😉

    • pablo discobar
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Struggling between A and B here. Players in capitals are the issues.

      A
      GK Foster, Fabiankski
      DEF SHAW, Luiz, Mendy, ROBERTSON, Win Bisara
      MID Salah, B SILVA, Jota, Cairney, Wilshire
      FWD Aguero, Firminio, Tosun

      B
      GK Foster, Fabiankski
      DEF PIETER(or BEDNARK), Luiz, Mendy, TAA, Win Bisara
      MID Salah, ERIKSON Jota, Cairney, Wilshire
      FWD Aguero, Firminio, Tosun

      So its 
      A Shaw, Robertson, B Silva
      Or
      B Pieter(or Bednark), TAA, Erikson

      Kinda leaning towards B as im trying to avoid too many eggs in one basket, 3 city and 3 liverpool when they play the likes of west ham and wolves in the first 3 gw's would see multiple players in limited amount of games. Same goes for bournmouth and Everton players tbh

      Wilshire in his no 10 advanced role works really well with Cairney imo

      Thanks

    • Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      A - DDG. Bednarek. Zaha.
      B - Fabi. Davies. Mitrovic

      ??