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Eliteserien Runde 12 – Looking forward to the Double Gameweek

In my last couple of articles, I’ve focused on the top defensive and midfield Fantasy assets so it only follows that this week’s focus will be on the top-scoring forwards in the game. As Gameweek 12 is the first double-gameweek of the season, I’ll also include how I’m going to approach this Fantasy milestone.

88 games in and we’ve had 261 goals. That’s three away from exactly three goals a game. To compare, the Premier League season ended with 1,034 goals over 380 games, or 2.72 goals per game. That’s pretty high, but we’d need another 106 goals to match the lust for goals that has been quite prevalent in Norwegian’s highest footballing tier.

The top 10 goal-scoring forwards in ESF have scored 53 goals between them, or 20.31% of the entire goals scored in the league. Again, to compare with the Premier League that would be like the top 10 point-scoring forwards ending the season on almost 24 goals each. In case you’re wondering if that’s impressive or not, I’d say it probably is.

Of course, the top 3 forwards (Junker 10, Borven 8, Fridjonsson 8) do skew our numbers somewhat (they contribute for just under 50% of our 53 goals) but still, we do have other players who are performing well enough to be considered alternative Fantasy options.

After looking at our Top Ten forwards, I’ll address the elephant in the room that is the first double gameweek of the season and how I will be approaching it. I’m not against taking a hit but just because we are entering a DGW doesn’t mean I think spending points to make transfers is always necessary. As ever I encourage debate on the subject, so please comment below with your own strategy.

The top 10 forwards we’ll be looking at are as follows:

1. Kasper Junker (86pts)

2. Torgeir Borven (64pts)

3. Holmbert Fridjonsson (50pts)

4. Daouda Bamba (46pts)

5. Lars Jorgen Salvesen (46pts)

6. Leke James (44pts)

7. Ohikhuame Omoijunafo (40pts)

8. Veton Berisha (40pts)

9. Moses Mawa (38pts)

10. Matthias Vilhjalmsson (38pts)

We’ll be looking at the following 10 categories:

1. Goals Scored

2. Assists

3. Total Shots/Shots on Target/% Conversion Rate

4. Big Chances Missed

5. Penalty Goals

6. Bonus Points

1) Goals Scored

Unsurprisingly Kasper Junker leads the way with 10 goals scored after just 770 minutes. Or, 1.17 goals a game. What’s even more impressive is that he’s not even made 60 minutes on two separate occasions (one game he scored 10pts with a goal and an assist, the other he blanked) and he missed another altogether. He’s in a league of his own right now and given the way both he and Glimt are playing, I can’t see him being caught any time soon.

Last season’s top goal-scorer Torgeir Borven is joint second with 8 goals, but 6 of those came in the first four games of the season when he was still at Odd. He’s since scored just twice for new club Rosenborg (in 549 minutes, or 6.1 games) which suggests he’s going through something of a transitional period which would make sense as Rosenborg themselves are certainly far from the finished article they aspire to be.

Holmbert Fridjonsson also has 8 goals after bagging a hat-trick against IK Start on Wednesday evening. He has one of the best goals per game ratio in the league (1.09 goals/game) which is even better than it first sounds when taking the club he plays for into consideration. Only four teams have scored more than Aalesunds, but they are rock bottom of the league and already look to be the whipping boys of the division.

Molde duo Leke James and Ohikhuame Omoijuanfo have scored 6 and 4 goals respectively but seem to be sharing minutes, meaning we have two premium forwards who are not guaranteed game time. At the same time, their attacking potential (AP) is quite formidable. James is averaging 1.04 goals every game, while Ohi is a bit behind on 0.85 goals per game. However, a mere four points separate the two and Fridjonsson is just 10pts ahead of Ohi, despite having played 240 minutes more than him.

Ibrahim Shuaibu and Mathias Bringaker have both scored the same amount of goals as Ohi (4) pushing Salvesen and Berisha out of the top ten for goals scored. Tobias Lauritsen has scored three times (as much as Mawa and Vilhjalmsson) but will be out for at least three months due to his shocking injury at the hands of Aalesunds goalkeeper Gudmund Kongshavn.

Lars Jorgen Salvesen hasn’t missed a minute up to this point but has only scored twice. While he may be struggling to get goals, he’s one of the most nailed forwards in the league so if he picks up a bit of form it’s hard to see him not starting/being hooked early. Along with Veton Berisha (2 goals) he drops out of the top ten goal scorers despite his points tally.

Moses Mawa and Matthias Vilhjalmsson (3 goals) have as many goals as Daouda Bamba who since scoring three goals in his first three games has really seemed to struggle up front of late. The Brann forward has cut a frustrated figure since being substituted early against Rosenborg – it seems as though something is not right there.

Right now it looks like Junker is the must-have forward based solely on goal involvement, with Fridjonsson just behind. As they’re both relatively cheap, they offer great value for money, allowing funds to be thrown around the rest of the team without too much issue.

(Goals Scored: Junker 10, Borven 8, Fridjonsson 8, Bamba 3, Salvesen 2, James 6, Ohi 4, Berisha 2, Mawa 3, Vilhjalmsson 3).

2) Assists

While more associated with midfielders, assists provide another route into scoring Fantasy points and while the leading forwards may be out-and-out goal-scorers, some of the chasing pack will usually have a couple more strings to their bows and not only be able to score a good amount of goals, they’ll also offer AP in assists.

This is most certainly the case for Junker. He’s got 4 real-world (RW) and 2 Fantasy assists to give him the most out of any forward in the league. In fact, only Magnus Wolff Eikrem 7, Jens Petter Hauge 7 and Philip Zinckernagel 9 have more than him. He started the season at 8mNOK so it should be no surprise that on the cusp of Runde 12, he’s now worth an astonishing 8.9m.

Salvesen may be something of a goal-shy forward right now, but he’s contributed 5 assists in total (3RW, 2F) putting him one behind Junker. He may not be the most dynamic player going but hasn’t let his lack of goals get in the way of being a team player. Berisha has 3 assists (2RW, 1F) to go with his two goals. Viking don’t seem to be a team full of goals which is a massive concern and Berisha will have to do a lot to convince most managers he’s worth a huge 8.8m especially when Junker is a mere 0.1m more expensive.

Ohi 2, Bamba 2, Vilhjalmsson 2 and Borven 2 (1RW, 1F) occupy the next few places in our list while Lauritsen 2, sneaks in ahead of James 1. Fridjonsson and Mawa are both yet to register a single assist, showing that they are perhaps only to be valued in terms of how many goals they will score, rather than being involved in providing any kind of noticeable service to their teammates.

Overall the correlation is quite high in this category, as only two of our players miss out on the top ten for total assists. It’s a shame Lauritsen has suffered such an awful injury (one that could potentially derail his fledgeling career) as he seemed to be asserting himself as the number striker at Odd since Borven’s departure,

(Assists: Junker 6, Borven 2, Fridjonsson 0, Bamba 2, Salvesen 5, James 1, Ohi 2, Berisha 3, Mawa 0, Vilhjalmsson 2)

3) Shots/Shots on Target/% Conversion Rate

Salvesen (29) leads the way and only Zinckernagel (30) has more shots than him. The issue is that only 9 of those shots have been on target and his conversion rate is 6.9%. That’s shocking if we’re being honest. 14 of Bamba’s 24 shots have been on target and he has a conversion rate of 12.5%. That’s almost double Salvesen’s but it’s still pretty poor. No wonder these two are trailing their peers – they’re being far too wasteful.

Junker, on the other hand, has had 10 fewer shots than Salvesen – 19 – but 12 of them have been on target and his conversion rate is 52.63%. Once again, a Bodo/Glimt player catches the eye and not just because of their bright yellow kit. Quality over quantity has been a concurrent theme in these articles – this is a perfect example.

Fridjonsson’s numbers are equally as impressive. He’s had 18 shots, with 11 being on target and a conversion rate of 44.44%. For someone who is playing for the team rooted to the bottom of the league – that’s good going. Borven has had a total of 17 shots with 9 being on target and a conversion rate of 47.06%. Since joining Rosenborg he’s had just two shots on target in seven games which should be cause for concern for his owners – he’s not playing like he was at Odd.

Vilhjalmsson has had the same amount of shots as Borven, actually being more accurate (11 on target) even though his conversion rate is almost 3 times worse (17.65%). Berisha is in a similar boat (15/7/13.33%) perhaps indicating these guys are not who we should be looking to for goals at this moment in time. Due to Vilhjalmsson’s age and his slightly deeper positioning and Berisha’s lack of instinct, I can’t say I expect to see much difference in this area over the next 5-10 games.

Ohi Omoijuanfo has had 16 shots (8 on target) and a conversion rate of 25%. Not too shabby at all, but his teammate Leke James, while having fewer shots (15), has 11 on target and a far superior conversion rate of 40%. If money is no object and you’re finding it hard to choose between these two, pretty much all the information we have to this point shows that James is the much better option.

Mawa has a respectable 15 shots with 8 on target and a conversion rate of 20%. I feel as though if he was able to produce 29 shots like his partner Salvesen, he’d be scoring a few more goals. He’s capable of getting in good positions and links up well with those around him so potentially if he’s given the chances to get in front of goal a bit more, he may well become a bit more productive.

I’m happy to suggest we should consider how many chances our forwards are getting but judge their accuracy rather than a lust for shots. Sometimes it’s better not to shot, looking to draw a teammate into the next phase of play rather than simply hitting the ball vapidly towards goal. It seems as though Salvesen is trying too hard to impress those around him and needs to focus a bit more on his shooting in training.

(Shots/On Target/% Rate: Junker 19/12/52.63%, Borven 17/9/47.06%, Fridjonsson 18/11/44.44%, Bamba 24/14/12.5%, Salvesen 29/9/6.9%, James 15/11/40%, Ohi 16/8/25%, Berisha 15/7/13.33%, Mawa 15/8/20%, Vilhjalmsson 17/11/17.65%)

4) Big Chances Missed

It’s only natural to be concerned with the form of our players and simply rage-transferring those who are failing to return on our investment can actually do more harm than good. Whether or not our players are taking their big chances is hugely important. We’ve already seen how wasteful the top-scoring forwards in the game have been, but how does that translate into missing big chances?

If a high points-scoring forward with not so many goals is missing a lot of big chances it can be seen as both a positive and a negative thing. They may be missing opportunities to score but, on the other hand, they are being given those chances other forwards may not have the luxury to squander. At this stage of the season, we should be mindful of some players taking their time to find their form. If the chances continue to present themselves, it wouldn’t be the most far-fetched logic to assume our premium forwards will eventually start converting those chances.

Ohi, Bamba, Salvesen and Mawa have all missed 6 big chances – more than anyone else. James has been less wasteful, only missing 2 big chances, while Berisha (4) and Vilhjalmsson (3) once again show they are a yard or two off the pace.

Junker (0), Borven (1) and Fridjonsson (1) are sending a very clear message to Fantasy managers all around the world: We. Do. Not. Miss. Borven is a special case right now as he was far more prolific at Odd, but Junker and Fridjonsson are clearly elite, efficient and effective. Triple E forwards whose value should be quite glaringly obvious.

In terms of correlation this hasn’t been too helpful, other than to show how efficient Junker, Fridjonsson and James are. The rest of our group are slightly more wasteful but it shows they are at least being given the chances to indeed score.

(Big Chances Missed: Junker 0, Borven 1, Fridjonsson 1, Bamba 6, Salvesen 6, James 2, Ohi 6, Berisha 4, Mawa 6, Vilhjalmsson 3)

5) Penalty Goals

What type of forwards do we have on our hands? A really quick look into how many goals our forwards are scoring from penalties is helpful on two levels: 1) Are they the designated penalty taker for their team? (Thus boosting their appeal) and 2) what percentage of their goals are coming from penalties rather than open play.

James, Ohi, Berisha and Fridjonsson have all scored one, Vilhjalmsson two and Borven out in front on 3. All three of Borven’s penalty goals were scored while he was at Odd. If he is not on penalty duty for Rosenborg it wouldn’t be too dramatic to suggest his appeal has severely diminished as over a third of his goals this season have come from the penalty spot.

As they do not take penalties for their clubs, Junker, Bamba, Mawa and Salvesen are all on zero. If you’ve not got Junker in your team yet, I implore you to bring him in. The guy doesn’t need special favours to score goals, he just scores. Simple as that.

Over half our top ten have scored penalties which gives us another reason to have them in our team. It shouldn’t blind us too much though, as Castro is AAFK’s usual penalty-taker and Borven scored his penalties at Odd and if both James and Ohi are playing who takes the penalties?

(Penalty Goals: Junker 0, Borven 3, Fridjonsson 1, Bamba 0, Salvesen 0, James 1, Ohi 1, Berisha 1, Mawa 0, Vilhjalmsson 2)

6) Bonus Points

This is the category in which we find the most correlation. Nine out of our ten players make the actual top ten (Vilhjalmsson unsurprisingly missing out with 0 BFP). All things considered, this shouldn’t be too surprising – if you do well across the board, you’re going to be rewarded for that. Our forwards have been awarded bonus points on 21 separate occasions, 18 of those occasions when at least one goal was scored. From this, it’s quite clear our forwards are being rewarded for scoring with a healthy supply of bonus points.

Only three times have bonus points been awarded to our top ten when they didn’t score. Bamba was awarded 1 BFP for an assist against Sandefjord and Berisha was given 2 BFP for a single assist away to FK Haugesund (ironically only being given a single bonus point when he scored and assisted at home to Sandefjord) while Mawa banked 2 BFP despite failing to either score or get an assist at home to Odd.

The list of BFP awarded to our top players is as follows:

• Junker 10 (3,2,3,2)

• Borven 5 (3,2 – Odd)

• Fridjonsson 5 (2,3)

• Bamba 7 (3,3 – when scored,1 assist)

• Salvesen 3 (1,2)

• James 5 (1,1,3)

• Ohi 4 (1,3)

• Berisha 4 (1,3 assist)

• Mawa 5 (2 no return,3)

• Vilhjalmsson 0

If we use Junker as the benchmark, we can see we’re doing pretty well in this department. BFP is a largely subjective aspect of the game – quite often we’ll see players who didn’t directly contribute as much as other players given more BFP due to their efforts in other areas. I think this system is a good one as we see players who excel in other areas rewarded for their efforts, rather than simply throwing bonus points at reactive goal scorers. Although the man in the stand could do with hanging around a bit longer after the last game of the week – we usually have to wait until the morning after for the game to update…

Conclusion and DGW Approach

At this moment in time, it really does seem like we’re clutching at straws when it comes to forwards. Junker is by far and away the must-have pick up top. Nobody comes close to his numbers and he’s playing for the best team in the league. Statistically speaking and going by any Fantasy metric of your choosing, the guy is basically essential.

Borven was great at Odd. Unrivalled perhaps. At Rosenborg it’s another story. He’s not as good. He’s in a worse team. And he’s often being played out of position. It’s hard to argue he’s worth the money, but he is a player of great quality. It has to be a case of ‘wait and see’, rather than insisting that next week will be his week. He’s scored a couple for Rosenborg but he doesn’t seem the same since moving. It seems like a poor fit to say the very least.

Fridjonsson could be a very cheap second striker. Before his price begins to rocket. I’ve avoided going for him this week as Niklas Castro will miss out due to suspension. Though Simen Nordlii is another competent provider and all-round good Fantasy asset, I feel Fridjonsson’s appeal diminishes somewhat without Castro. When he’s back for Aalesund’s home fixture against Viking, there’s a good chance Fridjonsson will come straight into my team.

Bamba and Salvesen are two heavyweight players with premium price-tags to match; poetically reflecting their own wastefulness up front with their owners’ investment in them. They’re a hard sell but do play for teams that are creating chances on a constant basis. Bamba has the potential to be an explosive player with a much higher points ceiling than he’s displaying this season, and Salvesen is in the path of some of the most creative players in the league – you’d expect in another ten games time for a huge improvement.

James and Ohi will more than likely continue to share game time, playing together on occasion. There will always be a risk attached to choosing one over the other but seeing as both have quite high ceilings, they can definitely reward any investor willing to put up with the odd cameo here and there.

Berisha, Mawa and Vilhjalmsson seem to offer the least out of all our players. If Stromsgodset decided to revert to playing with a single striker up front then Salevesen would without question get the nod ahead of Mawa, either pushing him out on the flank or back towards the bench. Vilhjalmsson is not playing up front for Valerenga and looks for less effective in a deeper role. The fact he is on penalty duty gives him limited appeal – it’s not enough to make up for the lack of goal-threat he offers.

Berisha is perhaps looked at harshly due to his value and the fact he’s not scoring as many goals as most of us thought he would, but he’s also playing for a team near the bottom of the table who often make it look harder than it should be to mount a serious attack. He’s scored as many goals as Viking defender Adrian Pereira, and set up just one more. If I was looking to bring in a Viking asset for their attacking qualities, I’d probably jump at Pereira for almost 3m less.

I currently have Junker and Ohi up front with the terribly ‘gambled upon’ Flamur Kastrati. After the double Gameweek I will be bringing in Fridjonsson for Kastrati, deciding what to do with Ohi the following week. If the rest of my team isn’t too badly affected, I may end up deciding to keep Ohi as the other options really aren’t that appealing.

Speaking of the double gameweek, I have decided to triple up on Molde assets despite taking a hit of -8pts. Whilst not being averse to taking hits, I’ve not made this move without quite a lot of consideration. Before bringing in Linde I had Viljar Myhra (in my opinion one of the best-performing keepers in the league) and Kristoffer Klaesson. Myrha is up against Bodo/Glimt and Klaesson against Brann. Both away from home. I fully expect both teams to lose, therefore I’m quite confident neither keeper will amass more than 2 or 3pts. I am confident that Molde will keep at least one clean sheet against either Sandefjord and IK Start in the double. Even if he doesn’t, he should at least halve my deficit in the very worst outcome.

Etzaz Hussain was in my team beforehand, but to be able to bring in Ohi, I had to make an extra transfer. This is where my conflict lay. I knew I wanted one of James or Ohi but would have to take an extra hit to be able to bring either of them in. James is too expensive for me as I don’t want to tear apart my midfield or defence for him. Ohi, however, allowed me to remove my most-recently bought midfielder – the brilliant Mikkel Maigaard – and bring in the ‘alright’ Niklas Sandberg as a replacement. I was happy to make that sacrifice.

Ohi comes in to replace Borven up front and provides me with not only a shield for the DGW but a chance to get some big points. He’s a huge differential compared to James (6.3% ownership – 27.5%) and goes into DGW 12 on the back of two assists and a goal as well as 3 BFP. It’s a high-risk strategy as he’s more than capable of blanking or being outperformed by James, but he’s shown on several occasions he can be just as good. Ohi was also started more last season and in general preferred to James, even if the latter was more efficient at taking his chances and scoring points.

Eikrem is obviously another choice for the DGW that most people will look to. I did say at the start of the season I thought he’d see fewer minutes and while that has been the case, he’s always a lethal player if given the chance to work the ball around. Hussain is on 3 yellow cards, putting him one more booking away from a suspension – an issue that a lot of people are aware of, making him a less attractive choice. Molde are like Manchester City in the sense they have such depth in midfield. It really does feel like a lottery at times. Add to that the fixtures they have this week – Sandefjord away and IK Start at home – they don’t need to put out full-strength sides in both games. Their only concern will be to make sure they do not drop any points at all, as they’d ideally want to be level on points with Glimt come Wednesday evening. I’m not even going to give any advice on this – this is the very definition of ‘Dealer’s Choice.’ The phrase ‘Pep Roulette’ springs to mind.

Jesper Daland is my only IK Start asset and I’m happy with that. Bringaker has become a doubt for their next game and other than Eirik Schulze nobody really stands out for any kind of potential returns. They’ll be lucky to keep a clean sheet in either of their games against Mjondalen and Molde and attacking returns seem quite slim, too.

If I avoided the moves I have made I’d be left with Klaesson in goal against Koomson at home and left to choose between Maigaard being passed out of the game at away to Bodo/Glimt or playing Kastrati (who probably won’t even start the next game) for a Kristiansund team who seem to score more when he’s not playing, away to Viking. With Linde and Ohi both potentially playing two games (at least 3 between them) and Sandberg at home to a Stabaek side who will be without Andreas Hanche-Olsen, I’m confident I’ll make up the eight points I’ve spent to bring them in and then some.

Long-term I’m happy to be stuck with these players as if I need to get rid of them, they’re easily replaced due to how much value I have tied up in each of them. Being ‘stuck with’ three Molde players is a situation I’m happy to be in, and while Sandberg may not be the answer to all my problems for the weeks ahead, he’s probably one of the best choices for this week. As he’s easily replaced by players such as Nordlii, and Stabaek trio Hugo Vetlesen, Kornelius Normann Hansen and Oliver Edvardsen, I’m happy to have him for a couple of weeks knowing I have decent replacements (all cheaper) waiting in the wings.

I wouldn’t let the DGW blind you when making your decisions on who to bring in and how to approach the week, rather let it be a part of the decision-making process you adopt. It is very an issue to be dealt with and needs to be respected as such, as well as the gameweeks that follow. I don’t think a triple up is necessary, I’ve only found myself in this position because I’ve had Hussain since gameweek 9. IK Start assets haven’t been attractive options up until now and just because they’re part of a double gameweek doesn’t suddenly transform them into such.

I’m ultimately left with a team that, if by some cruel twist of fate I’d be unable to change for the rest of the season, I’d not be too concerned about. In my experience that’s usually a good thing. My style of play may differ from yours and you may rationalise hits entirely differently to me – that’s fine – but in my head I’ve considered what I need to and I’m willing to die by the same sword I thrust into each gameweek. I’m not always right and I’m happy to admit when I’m wrong, but sometimes you need to take a little bit of a risk in order to win. Unless we’re talking about roulette, in which case just go home. Seriously, it’s not worth it.

 

ReindeerHotdog FPL: https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/320991/event/4”

628 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 17 days ago

    https://streamable.com/6jpc4y

    Maigaard with a panenka gone wrong 😀

    1. Dupuytrens
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 17 days ago

      lol that was a shocking penalty. The goal keeper did well to stand and wait for the ball

  2. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 17 days ago

    Coulibaly a 5th mid option?

    1. MTPockets
      2 months, 17 days ago

      Looking good so far

      1. MTPockets
        2 months, 17 days ago

        Hadn't even noticed his previous returns - 4G now

        1. Team Cruel
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 17 days ago

          He seems to be making those late runs into the box far more regularly after Saletros left. One to watch for sure

  3. Ze_Austin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 17 days ago

    Beautiful assist

    1. Ze_Austin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 17 days ago

      Retweet

  4. Ze_Austin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 17 days ago

    When will Børven score?

    1st RBK goal? Nope
    2nd? Nah
    3rd? No.
    4th? Error 404

    1. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 17 days ago

      5th? ...

      1. Ze_Austin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 17 days ago

        Computer's given up

    2. MTPockets
      2 months, 17 days ago

      Indeed. Was thinking of getting him in for next gw. Not sure

  5. Paul Psychic Octopus
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 17 days ago

    Is this the real Rosenberg standing up now? About bloody time if it is,

    1. Ze_Austin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 17 days ago

      RBK 2 : 3 AAFK

      Because, why not?

    2. MTPockets
      2 months, 17 days ago

      Wonder who gets dropped for Helland next game. Neither Holse/Ceide deserve it

      1. Ramboros
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 17 days ago

        Helland doesn't deserve to start.

        1. MTPockets
          2 months, 17 days ago

          Agreed but is that likely? Ok it was Sarpsborg at home, but generally looked much better today. Not just the goals

  6. Revival
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 17 days ago

    58 points with 3 Molde attackers still to play.
    Don't let me down boys! You owe me after that DGW nightmare.

  7. Hotdogs for Tea
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 17 days ago

    Have to back RBK next week ?

    1. Dupuytrens
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 17 days ago

      Yes. If they step up again but they seem so complacent at time and give stupid goals away. Borven seems to not fit in with this team but I am going to give him one last try. I may get Dino in to cover Borven and a benching just in case.

  8. ReindeerHotdog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    2 months, 17 days ago

    Horrendous GW for me so far.

    Captained Fridjonsson and benched Risa. Just below average with Linde, Hussain and Ohi left.

    Didn't see Berisha scoring twice at all.

    Finding it hard to justify captain anyone other than Hauge right now.

    1. Men in green tights
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 17 days ago

      You just don't seem to be having any luck on your Captain choices this year.
      Will get better trust me , I keep making wrong transfer choices but was lucky having Bershia this wer

      1. Men in green tights
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 17 days ago

        Should have been weekend not wer

      2. ReindeerHotdog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        2 months, 17 days ago

        It's been getting in the way of getting a much better rank. Simply by having more luck with my captaincies I'd be much, much higher.

        If we took away that chip I feel we'd have ORs that reflect less lucky picks than we have now. But that's the game.

        You don't win this through skill alone. You need some luck too. Anyone who doesn't think that is lying to themselves.

        I waited to bring Fridjonsson in until Castro was back as I know he's a massive reason as to why he does so well. Castro is potentially in my plans (mulling over if I bring him in or Pellegrino) and then I see Castro hauling with Fridjonsson not involved.

        When 50/50s all seem to not go your way it's very easy to get frustrated. I'm happy to write some articles but I'm finding it hard to even take myself seriously right now with now things have been going hah.

        1. Ramboros
          • 9 Years
          2 months, 17 days ago

          It's important to remind yourself that just because you are doing poorly in the game, your knowledge and opinions do not devalue. We are playing a game of chess where half the board is completely invisible. We cannot change where we have moved our pieces, nor could we have foreseen our pieces get swallowed by the darkness. All you can do is to put yourself in a situation you feel the most likely to succeed. And try to have fun along the way.

          1. Eytexi
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 17 days ago

            Very well said, couldn't agree more.

            But also very easy to say with your OR 😉

          2. ReindeerHotdog
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            2 months, 17 days ago

            It's kind of frustrating when I get into the top 760 odd then my rank drops to 1500 because of a captain pick that misses yet again.

            I 100% do think a lot of people can get lucky, and while I may be good at analysis it may not translate completely to mean I am great at the game.

            I've had a lot of 50/50 decisions, genuinely, that have gone the other way. I'm running out of ways to rationalise it.

            I'm not in a position where I'm not enjoying it, it's just slightly frustrating.

            I'm more concerned about my OR come week 30, not 13.

            1. Men in green tights
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 17 days ago

              Agree people can be lucky especially in fantasy football when it comes to the 50/50 decisions and we all tend to over analysis data sometimes and end up frustrated but at the end of the day unless you are in a big cash mini league it is suppose to be fun.
              I do appreciate your articles and in depth posts as this has helped me in picking certain players which has got me to a better position than expected.
              So cheers and chin up p

        2. J ⚒ Salah & Vinagre
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 months, 17 days ago

          RH, whether you’re captain hauled or not, or your whole team did bad I can safely say it would have zero effect on the communities opinion of you in terms of ‘taking you seriously’.

          Your articles, posts, in depth responses to people comments etc have been next to none!

          Onwards and upwards!

    2. Hotdogs for Tea
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 17 days ago

      Junker and Zinck are owned by 60% each & Hague by 40%, therefore it’s possible that two out of those 3 always have an effective ownership of more than 100%; in that case just owning them without captaining them means a fall in rank, unless your ‘maverick’ captain outscores two (probably) of them.

      I really do not think it is worth captaining any one else except one of the above except in exceptional circumstances such as Pelle against poor opposition for example. However if you shy away from the BG boys then expect big swings in your rank, the direction of the swing depending on the success of your captain pick and unless you can emotionally cope with that then it’s a tough strategy of risk/reward.

      Fridjonsson is one of those sketchy players that may go 2 or 3 game weeks without a return and is a risk to captain, but great to own if you can catch his hauls.

      It’s a tough game 🙂

      1. ReindeerHotdog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        2 months, 16 days ago

        Yeah I think Hauge should probably just be perm-capped to be honest. He's up with Zinckernagel regarding being one of the best players in the league and he always has the potential to haul. Now he's sort of confirmed that they don't really have a set penalty taker, Zinckernagel's appeal has levelled off.

        I tried to get ahead of the curve with the Fridjonsson captain pick. I can't breakaway if I do what everyone else does, can I? I suppose I'll have to settle for picking a safer captain, but making sure I have a couple of players different from a template side, to make sure I have a few differentials.

        This week I started Borch ahead of Risa. I didn't think for one second Odd would keep a clean sheet away to Stabaek and I thought Valerenga would get a few goals against Bodo and not get destroyed. Very frustrating how it all turned out. Borchgrevink actually got forward on numerous occasions and should've got one assist, for sure. That's me screwing myself out of 6pts for overthinking the fixtures. A lot of people who you could call casual wouldn't play Borch against Bodo as they'd think he's gonna concede load of goals and Risa is the better option.

        Hindsight is a great thing. I suppose we can use it to learn from mistakes. It just starts to get frustrating when these tactics don't seem to work after so many attempts.

        The main reason I get a bit frustrated (not emotionally upset or anything, don't worry - I'm aware it's just a game and I am approaching it as thus) is because I'm trying to analyse different aspects of the game and provide information and articles for this community. I feel my credibility diminishes the more I 'make silly mistakes' and it means my enthusiasm for writing anything to do with Fantasy Football starts to wane, too.

        Can't believe I've gone from 722 to 1500+ this week. That's brutal as hell.

        1. Hotdogs for Tea
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 16 days ago

          it is a tough one really, try something different or follow the pack.

          As you suggest, the way to cover what others are doing is to have the core players and then back yourself in picking 3 or 4 different players to the norm.

          This week had the lowly owned Berisha written all over it, next week has a couple RBK attackers as a differential.

          Can’t see beyond a BG captain for the next 3 games though

        2. Hotdogs for Tea
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 16 days ago

          you still have 3 to play? so you could yet bounce back

        3. ffs casual
          2 months, 16 days ago

          Don't worry about your credability when writing articles. All of your articles are considered, factual and full of valuable information. It allows the reader to glean substantial information and make well informed decisions. Just because you are not ranked as highly as you would like, doesn't make the articles any less valid.

          I think captaining anyone other than Hauge or Zinkernagel will fall further behind in rank. They each have five double figure scores in thirteen games. Hauge has only a single game without a return. Picking a captain to top this every week will be tough. Perhaps have a look in other areas where you may be able to chip away at those around you. Defence and a second / third forward are areas that could prove to be differentials. Remember you picked out Koomson and Borchgrevink long before they picked up popularity.

          I'm seriously thinking about selecting a player each week who play Aalesund as a 5th midfielder or third attacker differential.

          1. ReindeerHotdog
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            2 months, 16 days ago

            Cheers. Appreciate all the comments - it's just easy to doubt yourself when you're struggling to get the rub of the green.

            Two main reasons why I've been behind: Didn't think B/G would repeat their form (better it!) and was too late to get on those assets. That combined with bad captaincy choices has harmed me.

            Think everyone is right - can't look past a Glimt player for captaincy. Points can be made up elsewhere.

  9. Sebinhooooo
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 17 days ago

    Does Holse keep his place next week for Aalesund?

  10. Ramboros
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 17 days ago

    68 points all out on my WC. Up to top 30. Should be a decent green arrow even if Molde/Koomson haul.

    1. Sebinhooooo
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 17 days ago

      just 5 points behind me

  11. Mince n Tatties
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 16 days ago

    Molde

    1 Andreas Christopher Linde
    5 Sheriff Sinyan
    11 Martin Skjelbreid Ellingsen
    20 Henry Swenson Wingo
    28 Kristoffer Haugen
    14 Erling Knudtzon
    16 Etzaz Muzafar Hussain
    17 Fredrik Aursnes KAPTEIN
    19 Eirik Hestad
    22 Ola Brynhildsen
    99 Ohikhuaeme Anthony

    1. Mince n Tatties
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 16 days ago

      Eikrem and Kito on the bench

  12. Mince n Tatties
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 16 days ago

    Brann

    1 Håkon Eikemo Opdal
    3 Vegard Valgermo Forren
    19 Jon-Helge Ødegård Tveita
    21 Ruben Kristiansen
    25 Ole Martin Lekven Kolskogen
    8 Fredrik Haugen
    23 Daniel Alexander Pedersen KAPTEIN
    29 Kristoffer Ramos Barmen
    7 Gilbert Koomson
    9 Petter Dahle Strand
    11 Karamoko Daouda Bamba

  13. Hotdogs for Tea
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 16 days ago

    Koomson or Linde masterclass please ... don’t suppose I will get both 🙂

  14. ReindeerHotdog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    2 months, 16 days ago

    Brynhildsen starts again. Had him in my team week one. If he keeps getting starts he's straight back in. I think he's one of the most exciting players in the league and could he a huge asset. Would he a great swap for Hussain if guaranteed the minutes.

    Not sure I see Brann scoring in this game so hopeful of a clean sheet.
    Ohi starting is fortunate as James still injured. Life in the GW yet.

    1. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 16 days ago

      You don't have Koomson? 😯

      1. ReindeerHotdog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        2 months, 16 days ago

        I do have Koomson I just didn't play him this week. Kind of ran out of players.

        Was either him or Sandberg. Went with Sandberg due to fixture.

        To be honest I forgot Molde don't have a brilliant defence right now but still, thought it was more likely that Sandberg would return against an awful Mjondalen side. Can't belive Haugesund lost that game 1 nil.

        1. Team Cruel
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 16 days ago

          Haugesund are pretty bad offensively. They probably wouldn't have scored more than 1 goal against Stabæk if Hanche-Olsen wasn't suspended that game

          1. ReindeerHotdog
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            2 months, 16 days ago

            Yeah that was one reason I brought Sandberg back in.

            I decided not to ship him on when I should've done really.

            They do seem to be massively underperforming - very frustrating if you're a Haugesund fan.

    2. ReindeerHotdog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      2 months, 16 days ago

      Yet again another Brynhildsen goal.

      He's playing further up than Ohi.

      The guy gets harder to ignore each week.

    3. Hotdogs for Tea
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 16 days ago

      Looks like you jinxed the Molde clean sheet 😉

      1. ReindeerHotdog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        2 months, 16 days ago

        Hardly surprising was it haha.

        Just need some Ohi action.

        And depending on whether Hussain is suspended for next game and if Ola starts (as well as Ohi being potentially benched) I may need to take a hit for next week.

  15. ReindeerHotdog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    2 months, 16 days ago

    What a truly embarrassing goal for Molde to concede. That was horrendous.

    Flabbergasted as to how they didn't manage to play him offside. Just a simple defensive line. That's all. Like watching Norwich.

  16. ReindeerHotdog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    2 months, 16 days ago

    Anyone else's Eurosport player not showing goals and time?

    Horribly frustrating.

    Molde have defended appalling so far. Linde keeping them in it.

    I feel like a 2nd half Bamba dismissal is on the cards. Wouldn't be surprised if he's hooked early.

    1. MTPockets
      2 months, 16 days ago

      Yeah they only show for the games with english commentary. No idea why

      1. ReindeerHotdog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        2 months, 16 days ago

        Odd.

        Very weird watching football like that.

        I had no idea Brynhildsen had scored until I saw a random replay as I wasn't watching when he scored.

        It can't be too hard the score and time surely. Seems quite lazy.

        1. MTPockets
          2 months, 16 days ago

          I just submitted feedback about it. Will see if anything changes

      2. Team Cruel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 16 days ago

        I'd contact the customer service, graphics are probably just off by default and they might be unaware of it

        1. ReindeerHotdog
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          2 months, 16 days ago

          Oh OK. I might pop them an email over later.

      3. Hotdogs for Tea
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 16 days ago

        omg

        1. Hotdogs for Tea
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 16 days ago

          reply fail

  17. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 16 days ago

    Not watching, is Koomson even involved in the celebrations?

    1. ReindeerHotdog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      2 months, 16 days ago

      To be honest, with the way Molde are defending he could very well be celebrating a goal soon.

      They've looked amateur at the back tonight. Behind and deservedly so.

      Ohi should've scored but Opdal pulled off a worldie to stop it.

  18. Hotdogs for Tea
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 16 days ago

    that should have been a Koomson goal ... Bamba ya lump

  19. Dupuytrens
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 16 days ago

    There goes Eikrems one point ffs

  20. The Units
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 16 days ago

    Based on the last few results Molde are declining? I am thinking time to ditch the Molde lot, might take the Hussain profits this week, got rid of James for this week for Berisha which worked out well.

    1. ffs casual
      2 months, 16 days ago

      Brann sacked their manager and I think this was the first week with a new one. I don't think Molde are declining, they beat Start 5-0 in their last game. The Sandefjord loss was an early red card. Prior to that, BG excepted, they scored 4,4,5 and 3 goals.

      I may tap out on Molde players not because of their form, but because it isn't easy knowing which players will get a game.

      1. The Units
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 16 days ago

        Yeah maybe its the players I have that are not getting points so I am feeling a decline! It's a bit of a lottery at the moment on who makes the pitch and then scores. However I am finding that across the board as random (to me) players suddenly haul.

    2. TallestJohn
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 15 days ago

      Yeah I'd say less declining than their best creator having injury problems and not having any defenders.

      Difficult to map the Glimt loss because no one is close to those two teams. I think the only thing you can take from that is Molde struggled against a really good press (which you could argue Sandefjord did in parts). Didn't see the full game but the Brann loss seems to be down to set piece defending.

      I've been Molde-less for a few weeks though, I think fixtures and rotation make it viable.

  21. Eytexi
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 16 days ago

    So, let's talk RBK. Off the back of a 5-1 win, I'd normally be surprised to see any changes in the next fixture. However, with Helland returning from suspension & Islamovic scoring off the bench, it's tough to call who'll be starting in their front three come Sunday night.

    Helland has started every game for which he has been available this season, except for one vs. SIF in which he delivered 3 attacking returns in 31 minutes. Therefore, my money would be on Helland & Holse starting on the wings (as vs. Odd). But your guess is as good as mine.

    Any strong opinions regarding RBK's front three going forward or any fairly credible sources for predicted line-ups (aside from the RBK website)?

    As for GW13, my yo-yo period continues with a red arrow down to an OR of 859. I felt lucky to keep my RR to 4 figures (barely) given Zinckernagel captain, Foss, & Hustad all featuring in my eleven (due to Ofkir & James absences). Will likely use my 6.1m ITB to upgrade Nakkim & Ofkir prior to GW14, potentially even selling James (to make it a -8, my first of the season) if he fails to start again.

    1. Ramboros
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 16 days ago

      Helland is not a good player. He is too injury prone, slow and weak at pressing and defending. Only a bad coach would hesitate to bench him after the last match.

      Rosenborg's XI is possibly the most reliable in the league. Rbkweb have the XI with 99% accuracy the day before almost every game. The only uncertainties this week are Børven/Islamovic, Hovland/Valsvik and Skjelbred's fitness. I could see Helland start if Skjelbred is out, but I doubt it.

      1. Eytexi
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 16 days ago

        The easier to predict, the better. Any idea who's on pens without Helland on the pitch?

        1. Ramboros
          • 9 Years
          2 months, 16 days ago

          Børven and then Islamovic. Børven might be ahead of Helland. I don't think any other player in the squad has taken a penalty before.

    2. The Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 16 days ago

      Not sure on line ups. But thinking of Hussain => Holse (hopefully not chasing points too much?) and hang onto Berisha for another week. Originally planned Berisha => Borven but the Mids look better I think.

      1. Eytexi
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 16 days ago

        RBK forwards not even worth a look imo, definitely going for a midfielder, it's just a matter of who. Holse looked great, I can see another big performance for sure.

    3. Hotdogs for Tea
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 16 days ago

      Borven & Zach ... don’t overthink it

      1. Eytexi
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 15 days ago

        This is currently the plan. Big change of heart since last night.

    4. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 16 days ago

      Next GW is as good as it gets when it comes to early team news. Molde team will be confirmed 15 mins before deadline. Snowman might even leak it earlier.

      RBKweb will post the expected lineup before the deadline (they're always present at the open training sessions and barring any late injuries they’re always correct as Rambo said).

      Glimt have 7 days rest either side of games so no reason not to go full strength. And Pelle seems to have shaken off the knee problem.

      1. Dupuytrens
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 16 days ago

        The deadline for me ( in New Zealand) is usually 5.00am but this GW it is 1.00 am Sunday morning. I must be a bit of a casual as I do not wake up for the 4.00 am team news but I may stay up a bit latter for a 1.00 am deadline 🙂
        My only real considerations are making Borven the Kaptein and for a -4 doing Eikrem to Pellegrino or Kitolano to Nasberg for a -8 if required.
        More than happy to not make those transfers if they both start.

  22. FPL Bielsa
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 15 days ago

    Kitolano of Molde has started 6 of the last 9 games and his scores have been 9 6 9 6 6 9 average 7.5 per game. Of the three he has missed no annoying 1 pointers from the bench.

    Seems an obvious transfer to me if your sub defenders play, any thoughts ?

    1. MTPockets
      2 months, 15 days ago

      One of those clean sheets was due to an early subsistution before they conceded. He was playing because Haugen was out, then rotation. Even if we assume continued rotation Molde have 2 away games in 3, then a blank (so8 ODD vik -)

  23. Ramboros
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 15 days ago

    I think I've mentioned earlier that GW19 is the best week to use Rich Uncle. Today it's been confirmed that Molde - Sandefjord is the opening game of the GW. That makes it an even better prospect to use RU.

    Molde - Sandefjord
    Bodø/Glimt - Vålerenga
    Kristiansund - Brann
    Haugesund - Odd
    Stabæk - Start
    Strømsgodset - Sarpsborg 08
    Mjøndalen - Viking
    Aalesund - Rosenborg

    1. Hotdogs for Tea
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 15 days ago

      looks good for Attack Attack -
      Junker plus Borven, Berisha, Salvesen or a Molde striker if you have the stomach for it 🙂

    2. El Puqi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 15 days ago

      Damn that looks just perfect!

      Triple Molde & Rosenborg, and maybe Bodo.

      1. Ramboros
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 15 days ago

        My thinking is triple Glimt is mandatory every round, so those fixtures don't matter.

  24. Ramboros
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 14 days ago

    Skjelbred will be out until GW17. Opens up for Holse to play in midfield.

    1. Sebinhooooo
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Asen also picked up an injury, is he fit?

      1. Ramboros
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Seems like he trained today and seem to be starting.

    2. Eytexi
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Can he play in central midfield? Sofascore suggests not: https://www.sofascore.com/player/carlo-holse/837012.

      1. Ramboros
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Yes. He's been tried several times in midfield and usually play the last 30 minutes in that position.

        1. Eytexi
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 14 days ago

          Am between him & Zacha. Would love Holse if he was nailed long-term but the slight risk has me leaning the other way.

    3. Hotdogs for Tea
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      very congested in the RBK midfield, lots of players available

  25. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 14 days ago

    https://twitter.com/TBorven/status/1293593260762505218

    Børven delivering a hat-trick on Sunday. Anyone not captaining him?

    1. Ze_Austin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 14 days ago

      The kind of content I love to see

    2. MTPockets
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Islamovic

    3. Hotdogs for Tea
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Zach & Borven against a team shipping 3 - 4 goals a game .. what can go wrong 😉

    4. TallestJohn
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 12 days ago

      Strongly considering two captains with him and Zinckernagel. Had Børven all season bar RU but worrying how uninvolved he looked in a 5 goal win. Discount the Odd games and he and Islamovic have the same number of goals in similar minutes.

      Feels risky knowing that we'll see the Molde lineup before the deadline this week and at least 3 others going forward, easy switch from Børven to a striker in a far better team.

      That said he could bag a hat-trick. AAFK with suspensions and injuries.

  26. Hotdogs for Tea
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 13 days ago

    can’t believe I sold a player after a brace and double digit haul 🙂

  27. Rotation's Alter Ego
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 12 days ago

    New Eliteserien article

    ww.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2020/08/14/eliteserien-runde-14-different-strokes