Scoutcast #383 – Manchester United players among top Gameweek 2 bandwagons

Based on his streak last season, I would say yes

Yes our midfield is shiiiiite

Certainly should be, I think Newcastle were were hoping to play him last Sunday and only didn't because he was registered too late on Friday when the deal was done

Definite starter, unsure about starting straight off, didn't have much pre season game time

25M player

Still on for the consecutive goals record. Just 4 more games/goals needed to equal Vardy.

Surely.

Yes - he'll take Hayden's place.

B

Save and do 2 transfers to get 0.5 to do son

B

C

Gotta be C

Gotta be Soucek.

Thanks yall!

I’d wait for more info closer to kickoff

No.

I’d be very tempted. Would be annoying if Jesus starts instead though.

Not for me.

No idea who will start for City, let alone where the goals will come from.

Torres was anonymous on Sunday and in the Community Shield. I'd avoid.

Lol no. Not sure torres gona start

No unless there is word he starts.

What is your risk appetite like? Thst is the question.

Not for me, but I am probably being biased as going Torres over Willock at the end of last season cost me 1st in my ml

Yeah it is quite the conundrum. If this quarantine thing happens just imagine the ownership.

In that case wait and see.

I have him and will definitely hold on, especially considering that some key players may be unavailable after the international break.

So with Jota, I think he's always been good value - even off the bench he has a great record. But the question was would it be worth the gamble to get him over Tsimikas.

If you've gone with him, I think you should stick with him especially as Robertson is on his way back (perhaps for Chelsea if he's running already).

If he starts or only gets 30 mins, he is still a decent option. Hold for now and assess in GW3 with 2FTs

Yeah save.

Shouldn't be, but you never know.

If LEI switch to a back 3 and 2 up top then potentially he could make way. LEI only have Amartey, Soy and Vestergaard CBs available and after Amartey poor performance in the last game I think he will stick with a back 4

There was and still is with Daka and Nacho lurking. But he is still a quality player so I think it's unlikely.

Can he play on the RW?

Vardy Iheanacho Barnes
Maddison
Ndidi Tielemans

That's how I'd set up if I were Brendan.

Leicester fans are pretty unanimous that Barnes will start, no matter what formation they play.

Depending on how the game goes, I think it's more likely he's taken off early than benched.

I'd say there's a greater chance of a benching against Norwich as he may opt for a different formation with two forwards in the 'easier' games.

He's Rodgers favourite player so I would think no

This risk is what has been tempting me in to doing a -4 hit to swap Barnes and Gundo for Son and a 4.5 mid

I'm considering whether I should swap Barnes for Benrahma....
West Ham was on fire away, should be even more so at home - and Leicester didn't impress me in their first home game.

Now is not the time to get rid of Buendia with that hapless Toon defence there for the taking.

Thanks all - will continue to weigh it up but might just stick and roll the transfer

Come on Ayling!

No

I use the odds regularly. Not an expert but I think the truth lies somewhere between A and B.

I am not a bookie or actuary or anything. But to me the odds reflect what the punters think. The general consensus. It is never the probability of it happen. In pure probability terms if I remember my simple maths from school. Every team has an equal chance of winning the league at the start of season.
Similar to winning fpl, everyone starts off from zero.
Whether they are 'likely' to do it is another question.

Plus the bookies never true odds they always have an edge on the punters. They try and make punters place bets on teams to make sure the bookmaker comes out with more money regardless of the result. So they are constantly adjusting the odds.

Like fpl there is the 'general consensus' of casuals who go for the obvious. While the shrewd punters look for value where they think the bookies have got it wrong. Because of injury form or based on a recent head to head.

Short answer bookies odds are what punters think would happen minus the bookies edge. It is not how likely a result will happen in the future.

It's based on a probability - I wouldn't take it as an absolute probability because, of course, the bookies want to make money. But if they're offering (say) Evens on Salah scoring and 6/5 against on Bruno scoring then you can't really equate that to the chances of Salah scoring being 50%, but you can assume that they think Salah is more likely to score than Bruno. If that makes sense.

Linking to reply below - I am an actuary but that doesn’t help too much here. Just have to look at England odds every international tournament to see that B must play a huge component.

More generally my question would be is it actually useful data? I could see it being most relevant in captaincy decisions but if the decision was close the odds probably will be too and any slight difference is spurious enough to not help the decision. If Salah is down as 57% to score and Bruno 54% I personally wouldn’t see using this as any sort of edge. Odds don’t given you any sense of variance, plus would have to combine with clean sheet / assist odds plus likelihood of bps from the players which no odds will really inform.

Bottom line - If the odds had a clear pattern useful enough to inform decisions an engaged fpl manager probably already knows it. Using odds to inform marginal decisions I would say is spurious given all relevant factors. If you enjoy the process of looking up the odds go for it absolutely but I wouldn’t expect an edge from it.

Tis an evil science

I'd save that and weigh up a move for Son next week with 2 FT's.

Same dilemma and concluded to save transfer. We knew he would only get 60/70 mins, BR mentioned this in the pressers before the deadline. With Daka and Nacho on the bench, there is always the uncertainty BR will change formation in the 2nd half depending on how the game is going. He is still a starter imo. Having 2FTs with another GWs worth of info seems to be the better option for me.

Total reply fail! That was to Matty172 above.

Skysports reported he will miss the Norwich game

I haven't read any articles or updates but I would question why would they risk playing him at home to Norwich if he isn't fully healthy, which he isn't.

save

Same. Thinking of saving.

B

B

Keep Barnes. Could easily bag a goal against WHU, and then you'd really want him for Norwich.
Benrahma is a great pick, no doubt, but if you did not start with him you will probably not lose the game wait getting him till GW6

Saka

Sarr

Sarr, Saka a rotation risk and doesn't actually get too many returns and Arsenal are a mess. Sarr will always play and is the talisman for Watford

Saka

I assume Arsenal are going to sign a striker, with Lacazette and Aubameyang unfavored by Arteta? Or am I reading too much into it?
It is tough call Saka could be great if Arsenal have a flying striker - nice fixtures gw4 ish. Sarr is extremely attacking and has nice fixtures after a couple of gameweeks.

It basically depends how much do you trust Arsenal going forwards?
You could get Sarr then get ESR in a few gameweeks instead and have both to cover yourself.

Sarr unless today’s reports linking him to a move have some substance

No update since it was confirmed he had to isolate for being a close contact

Happy to go without.

Happy going without.

I think there's opportunity there if you happen to pick the right City player. But there's also not that much risk involved if you go without as City options are so spread that no one City player hauling will kill you. Salah and Bruno are going to massively dominate in terms of captaincy too, so the risk you're exposed to by going without is greatly reduced.

happy to go without and save FT

I have Cancelo, Mahrez and Gundogan and might only have one starter vs Norwich. Such a headache and kinda annoyed I did this to myself.

I am happy to go without as it's a lottery.

Happy to go without. Players from other teams will return points without the threat of rotation. Only City I'm interested in is a fit KDB

I would love to have a decent asset from City for this game but I dont see it as urgent or needing to waste my free transfer. As ever I have no idea on the starting line up, Gundo is probably injured, Torres or Jesus, has Jack settled in yet etc etc. I would though be very worried if the ownerships were enormous but its only Jack at 22.5% that would materially affect my ranking if he exploded. A risk I will take for this gamweek I think.

I'd go without. They're not as sharp as last season and I'm very confident there are more than one ways to succeed in FPL. You can easily do without City.

Happy going without.

Not going near City unless Kane signs for them. I am not falling for 1 or 2 gameweek bandwagon only for x player to be dropped. And have a 1 point cameo.

Not happy to go without but can't own everyone right. I'm too conservative to go for any of their fringe players. Unless it's Ederson, Dias, KDB and Gundogan you are risking your player being benched. I can't play with that sort of stress : D

Tis a jest?

This is the reason I no long have 8 good attackers as Ive done in previous seasons. Its a nightmare every gameweek to decide which one to bench and you invariably get it wrong. To answer your question, maybe Barnes.

Easy, bench Barnes.

Bench Benrahma

Ive had to decide between Ayling and Coufal and Im currently benching Ayling. Both attacking in decent teams playing decent teams so its come down to which I think is better defensively which is West Ham and not Leeds.

😆

I always thought 'Jah' was the Jamaican slang for God after listening to Bob Marley. First thought was God wants to sign him?
Then I released that it was 'Ja' not 'Jah' so it meant Jamaica

I sent that to my twitter GC and watched as chaos ensued. Beautiful.

I love Antonio but it was a nightmare owning him last season at times just expecting to read about him being out. Will be even worse for everyone with him this time around I'm guessing with this and Europe.

b

b

Filthy differential, but not ahead of a match up with Craig Dawson (watch the Newcastle highlights) and then Norwich.

Wouldn't you rather wait and see how he plays? They could both score well, I'd rather have 2 FTs

I got in Vardy gw1 with gw 3 Norwich in mind. After gw3 seems the wisest choice. Gives you a chance to see how Lukaku and Chelsea are lining up. People seem to be forgetting the other options at Chelsea besides Lukaku.

Lukaku reply fail.

If I had him I'd hold

a

Definitely hold for Burnley mate!! Then easy switch to Son for the week after!!

A

Cheers guys will stick to original plan

A, no bias I just always prefer the attacker

A

Thanks I'm on A anyway tbf

Must take the risk of playing him vs. Norwich since you already own. A risk nonetheless

If I had Torres I'd hold, seeing as this game is the reason you got him right?

Got to keep

keep

Not this GW but prob will next GW if Arsenal concede next game

No - nightclubs are back in business

I think a lot of people will do that. I'm sticking with Mo

Its a fair shout. Sticking with Salah though given its 50/50 who will do best and managing risk given majority will captain Mo.

Sticking with Mo

Mo it is.

Bruno ofc a great option too if you have him.

Tempted by Bruno Salah or even Mahrez