The FPL Watchlist: Isak back on the radar

With three Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadlines set to pass in quick succession, we’ve updated The Watchlist for Gameweek 14 and beyond.

If you’re new to this article series, we attempt to pick out the stand-out FPL transfer targets over the medium term. In this case, we’re extending the lookahead to Gameweek 20 – the final round of fixtures before the winter break.

This is in contrast to the Scout Picks, which deals only in the upcoming Gameweek.

There could be further tweaks to our rankings as the week progresses, particularly after the pre-match press conferences have taken place.

Jarrod Bowen (£7.6m), for instance, will be removed if David Moyes rules the winger-turned-striker out for any significant length of time – not that a concrete update looks likely.

MORE ABOUT THE WATCHLIST

We rank players according to factors such as club injuries, form (last four Gameweeks), underlying numbers, forthcoming fixtures, Rate My Team’s points projections and whether or not the player in question is likely to be a bargain in FPL.

Arrows before the name indicate whether a player has increased in appeal or fallen in our reckoning since the previous Gameweek or if they are a new entry into the tables.

The key for the factors you’ll see in the below tables is as follows:

THE WATCHLIST: GOALKEEPERS

There’s no room for mercy as Alisson‘s (£5.6m) injury costs him his place on the Watchlist. The Brazilian could be out for around three Gameweeks if Jurgen Klopp’s prognosis on Wednesday is accurate, so Caoimhin Kelleher (£3.9m) isn’t going to be a starter for long enough to feature in this article.

Sam Johnstone (£4.7m) is also culled after a lengthy stay, with nine of Crystal Palace’s next 11 fixtures coming against sides in the top 11.

With his enforced absence against parent club Brentford out of the way and Aaron Ramsdale‘s (£4.7m) dodgy Gameweek 13 display not likely to have impressed Mikel Arteta, David Raya (£4.9m) makes a return.

Arsenal can lay a convincing claim to having the best defence in the division, unbeaten for most clean sheets (six), fewest goals conceded (10) and fewest expected goals conceded (xGC, 10.56). The only downside to Raya’s appeal is the tricky run from Gameweeks 16-18, when the Gunners face three of the Premier League’s highest scorers. Either side of that are some decent shut-out opportunities.

Top of the Season Ticker in Gameweeks 14-20 are Chelsea, so Robert Sanchez (£4.6m) climbs to the summit accordingly. Their appealing run doesn’t really start until Gameweek 16, although next Wednesday’s opponents, Manchester United, have scored just twice in four meetings with clubs in the top half this season.

A couple of four-goal concessions may have shaken faith in the Blues’ backline but they’ve proven themselves to be flat-track bullies when shutting out Fulham, Luton and Bournemouth, the type of team they encounter from mid-December onwards.

Chelsea also remain a creditable fifth for xGC in 2023/24.

With clean sheet opportunities spurned against Everton, Nottingham Forest and Burnley, Alphonse Areola (£4.3m) takes a tumble. After a succession of price rises, he’s not even that much cheaper than Sanchez now.

It’s a bit of a grim time for goalkeepers at present, as our form ratings above illustrate. Over the last four Gameweeks, our seven-strong collection of ‘keepers have kept just two clean sheets between them.

THE WATCHLIST: DEFENDERS

With clean sheets in relatively short supply at present, defenders should ideally carry a bit of attacking potential for an alternative route to points.

Our new entry in the sub-£4.5m bracket has been offering that. Vitalii Mykolenko‘s (£4.4m) reinvention as an underlapping full-back by Sean Dyche has resulted in a whopping 10 shots in just three Gameweeks, double what Messrs Salah and Son have had!

Everton’s fixture run isn’t the best but the Ukraine international is at least benchable at that price, and can be wheeled out in Gameweeks 14, 17 and/or 20. With many other teams struggling to keep clean sheets anyway, fielding defenders sometimes just for their goal threat is becoming more commonplace.

There’s little movement elsewhere, with Reece James (£5.4m) retained for his return from suspension in Gameweek 15, in time for Chelsea’s appealing fixture run. Matty Cash (£5.1m) and Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.5m) are also one booking away from a ban; Ait-Nouri will make way from the list if Gary O’Neil confirms the wing-back’s injury is serious in his pre-match presser.

THE WATCHLIST: MIDFIELDERS

Jarrod Bowen (£7.6m) may well end up being declared available for Gameweek 14 but even if so, there’d be some lingering concern about whether his injury (“fluid on the knee”) is something that’s going to hinder his performances and/or keep rearing its head.

Chelsea’s Cole Palmer (£5.3m) and Newcastle United’s Anthony Gordon (£5.9m) arguably have the stronger fixture runs in Gameweeks 14-20 anyway, even if it doesn’t sit right to demote a 90-minute man like Bowen heading into a busy festive period.

Bryan Mbeumo (£7.0m) is another such nailed starter, a clean bill of health permitting. Remove Blank Gameweek 18 from the equation and Brentford are second-top of our ticker for favourable fixtures. The Bees’ next three matches are against sides yet to keep a clean sheet this season; an irresistible run for the man with the highest non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) among midfielders.

Two new entries are Phil Foden (£7.5m) and Morgan Gibbs-White (£5.7m).

Foden, like Mbeumo, blanks in Gameweek 18. Going one better than Brentford, City rise to the summit of the ticker if we take that Gameweek out of the equation. A case for a Free Hit?

Foden is joint-top among midfielders for goal attempts over the last four Gameweeks, his performances peaking with an excellent goalscoring display against Leipzig in the Champions League in midweek.

According to our ticker, Gibbs-White’s Forest have the best run of fixtures over the next five Gameweeks. On penalties, the budget midfielder is also someone who could prosper playing off Chris Wood (£4.9m).

THE WATCHLIST: FORWARDS

Alexander Isak (£7.4m) and Gabriel Jesus (£7.8m) have returned from injury recently and are ushered into the Watchlist inner circle.

Isak now has seven goals for the season, despite playing less than half of the minutes available due to injury or rotation.

Only Callum Wilson (£7.8m) and Erling Haaland (£14.0m) have a better minutes-per-xG average among forwards this season, so any game-time guarantees for Isak are to be taken seriously.

Jesus’ numbers are less impressive. Never a prolific goalscorer (he’s routinely underachieved on the xG front), his relatively low standing in the rankings above reflect the reservations about his finishing ability.

Nevertheless, for anyone playing the fixtures, three of Arsenal’s next four matches are against teams who have mustered just one clean sheet between them.