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Month In Review – August

August saw the return of the Premier League to our TV screens, and Fantasy Premier League (FPL) to our web browsers. For many it turned out to be a stressful and traumatic start to the season, with players that we thought were reliable not delivering as planned, and new faces quickly becoming favourites throughout the Fantasy community. So here we can look back over the first month of the 2015/16 season and reflect on the highs and lows so far. I’ve also included some articles written by other contributors from the last few weeks in case anyone missed these very useful posts.

Goalkeepers

When the prices were released, one of the first things we noticed was the generous listing of goalkeepers. The likes of Joe Hart, Petr Cech, Thibaut Courtois and David De Gea all came in at the same 5.5 mark as premium options. Since then, however, De Gea has been subject to one of football’s strangest transfer sagas and Sergio Romero has emerged as an even cheaper way into Manchester United’s backline. Chelsea man Courtois and West Ham’s Adrian suffered early red cards, with the former making up for it with a penalty save in Gameweek 3. In the mid-to-low bracket, newcomers Watford have notched two clean sheets with Heurelho Gomes between the sticks whereas Liverpool’s Simon Mignolet has returned three shut-outs in comparison, from a starting price of 5.0. West Brom’s Boaz Myhill and Everton’s Tim Howard have also proved to be decent options over the last few games with two clean sheets apiece and a handful of saves. Most recently Maarten Stekelenburg of Southampton and Arsenal’s Cech have kept consecutive clean sheets, somewhat restoring the faith in their teams’ defensive prospects.

Defence

Manchester City have shown great resilience at the back, keeping four clean sheets in their opening four games thanks to some impressive returns from the likes of Aleksandar Kolarov, Vincent Kompany and Bacary Sagna. Manchester United and Liverpool have also been giving the north west a reputation of fortress with three clean sheets from their opening three fixtures, although each put in a poor display during losses in Gameweek 4. Elsewhere, Watford have looked solid at the back with two clean sheets, much like West Brom, Southampton, Arsenal, West Ham and Everton. At the other end of the spectrum Chelsea have been very disappointing. Fan favourites such as John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic that started as the most expensive defenders at 7.0 failed to deliver a single clean sheet, conceding nine goals, with the Chelsea captain picking up a red card. Tottenham registered a single shut-out this month, as their new defensive signings look to settle in. Disable’s table examines and ranks the best defences, and seems to give us an early insight into what teams we can expect to show solid displays at the back.

Midfield

It wouldn’t be a decent midfield discussion without first mentioning the form of Riyad Mahrez. Starting the season at 5.5, the Leicester midfielder has quickly cemented himself in plenty of teams, racking up four goals in four games with some impressive displays throughout the month. Team-mate Marc Albrighton has also delivered a tidy return so far for player that started at 5.0. Of the more expensive midfielders, the likes of Yaya Toure and David Silva have also hit fine form, however the main value seems to be found in the low-to-mid-priced bracket. Nathan Redmond and Wes Hoolahan have been impressive for a surprisingly attacking Norwich side. Likewise Swansea’s Andrew Ayew has caused problems for several teams, alongside other popular options such as Everton’s Ross Barkley, Dimitri Payet of West Ham, Sunderland’s Jeremain Lens and Spurs’ Nacer Chadli.

Forwards

Where do we start with strikers? Callum Wilson has been in great form for Bournemouth and with a nice run of fixtures ahead, many will likely invest in his affordable services. Likewise, Jamie Vardy and Bafetimbi Gomis have been fantastic mid-priced options for two quite attacking teams in Leicester and Swansea. Merseyside strikers Romelu Lukaku and Christian Benteke seem to have a question mark over them for the moment but have looked dangerous at times. As touched on already, many premium options have failed to live up their price tags so far. Big hitters like Wayne Rooney, Sergio Aguero, Diego Costa and Harry Kane have been underwhelming in their returns. At Arsenal, the Olivier Giroud and Theo Walcott rotation conundrum is certainly a headache for managers with either of the two. For more information on attacking midfielders and strikers, I have put together a table looking at players with a high number of penalty area touches. Over the next month, things may turn around and their merits may be rewarded.

To use this table as a guide for players that are getting into scoring positions is only one step however. As Ruth_NZ pointed out in his fantastic article on VORP, it is often the case to consider the value of a player rather than the just statistical data they return. While the likes of Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez and Aguero scream goal threat, it is often in their pricing that we feel safer owning them, yet we must also consider cheaper options like Callum Wilson and Riyad Mahrez from a value point of view.

Risers and Fallers

The market this season seems to be quite volatile for fallers and somewhat steadier for risers, yet the changeover time has remained around the 2.30am mark. There seems to be a question mark over which sites offer a more accurate reading of transfer trends, but as the weeks go on this will become more apparent. Whatever the case may be, Diva’s article acted as a lovely introduction to understanding the transfer market, in addition to the basic mechanics behind it for those who might have forgotten.

Under The Radar

Linked to the FPL transfer market, Ruth_NZ’s post also reminded us that while in-form players are rising, others are dropping quite fast and could be worth considering in the near future. Similarly, Wakey returned with his Falling Stars, to consider over the forthcoming weeks. We may see some nice differentials emerge over September as both teams and players begin to find their feet.

Wildcarding

Another change was to the wildcard system. Traditionally, Fantasy managers would have a Wildcard to use at any time during the season, and another that could only be used during January. This year, we still have two Wildcards but one must be used before Gameweek 19 and the other can only be used after Gameweek 19. Lanley Staurel’s inquiry probed the community for their opinions on when to Wildcard throughout each half of the season. Interestingly enough, we can see below the number of players that felt the need for a renaissance, opting to use their Wildcards in the early stages. Keep in mind, however, that there will be many dead teams that will neglect their Wildcard by the time Gameweek 19 comes around.

117,103 – Wildcards used for Gameweek 2 (3.5%)

329,649 – Wildcards used for Gameweek 3 (9.8%)

243,341 – Wildcards used for Gameweek 4 (7.2%)

———————————————————

690,093 total Wildcards used (20.5%)

Chips

No, not those ones! This year saw the introduction of tactical chips that can be used throughout the season as a boost to our teams. For those of us with these chips still available, Jarvish’s article highlights the best way to utilise these tactical tools in the later stages of the season. He also examines how the FA Cup could reward our patience. Below we can see the breakdown of people that have used these chips, keeping in mind that a certain percentage of dead teams may not use any of them over the season.

Chips Used By Percentage

Triple Captain – 14%

Bench Boost – 7.8%

All Out Attack – 5.2%

Captaincy

So four Gameweeks have passed by, and each week I have posted up the distribution of captain choices. A worrying pattern emerged of generally reliable players like Hazard, Rooney and Sanchez failing to deliver early on, where many had captained them. Jonty addressed this issue with the community, and as Mark rightly pointed out, the severe lack of home wins may account for our captains failing. When discussing the Bonus Points System below, this may also account for the lack of bonus points up front, so perhaps it is a little too early to despair!

Bonus Points Changes

This year saw a few tweaks made to the Bonus Points System (BPS). Early on, Mark kindly went into detail of the changes to the bonus system and illustrated how more defensive units ought to benefit from these alterations. The3rdTurd’s article also examined the 2015/16 BPS by looking at last year’s statistics and calculating how goalkeepers would have done under the current system. As a result, we can see the effect the new system would have had and the increase/ decrease we might have seen to certain players. After four Gameweeks I decided to take a look and see how the new system fared out and came up with some interesting results. Full-backs in particularly appear to be reaping the rewards of these changes.

Conclusion

It has been a very tough start to the season, more so than previous seasons. At this stage there’s not much we can do with regards to Wildcarding and transfers since the returns have been so scattered and distributed from week to week. My best advice is to sit tight and ride the storm; the likes of Hazard, Sanchez and Aguero must surely start hitting form soon. Under the new BPS, early signs suggest premium full-backs may be the way to go in addition to offensive midfielders. With only nine home wins from 40 games, maybe this is the source of all of our problems. Perhaps the international break will allow clubs to reconsider their game strategy and give players some much-needed breathing space. On the flip side, there might be injuries over the next week or two, so look ahead and hold onto free transfers as long as you can if possible.

Bøwstring The Carp Active since 2011 on FFS. Occasional poster and community article writer. Twitter: @MattKearney92 Follow them on Twitter

13 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Excellent round up of the last four Gameweeks. Lots to consider over the international break.

  2. Still Unsure
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Great article. Cheers.

    • Your Mum's Athletic
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      +42

    • Az
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Really nice article!

    • Jose's Magic Omelette
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Really interesting to see how many chips have already been burned, something to keep in mind when looking at your overall rank and mini-leagues.

    • Bangarang
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Good Article +1. The chips really interest me, wouldn't have thought that many Triple captains would have been played considering the lack of form of the "traditional" captain options.

      1. Jose's Magic Omelette
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah it's really quite surprising! I would love to know which players are getting the triple captain armband, are people going for a differential?

        Here's the FPL overall leader who inexplicably burned his triple captain on Yaya Touré in GW4 which just boggles the mind!

          1. merlinrajesh
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            I am not sure how he choose Watford keeper when they are playing Mancity.

        1. Bangarang
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Utter madness! Although he did have fairly successful week in GW 2 with his bench boost!

    • prichardson100
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Thoughts on WC Team;

      Myhill, Elliott

      Muniesa, Targett, Prodl, Koscielny, Kolarov

      Sanchez, Mahrez, Bolasie, Westwood, Hazard

      Aguero, Gomis, Wilson

    • Sharkytect
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Nice article. Looking forward to more of these over the season

    • tm245
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Nice work, thanks for sharing this information. One thing that I've been wondering is just how bad this first month really is, or isn't.

      I've always considered a 60 to be a good score for a single gameweek, five points per spot with the captain getting ten. I'm interested in how the average score for these first four game weeks of 2015 would compare to the average scores (or even the corresponding ranks) of previous seasons' opening game weeks.

      Is there any way of retrieving those stats?