The Numbers Game – Everton

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Making the most of Everton.

Everton are set to be a different beast next season, with new faces like Klassen as well as rumoured recruits such as Keane from Burnley.

In addition their attack could be different with Lukaku perhaps on his way out, to Chelsea.

Luckily we have some time to assess their options.

For the first five GWKs the Toffees have arguably the worst set of fixtures with trips to the two Manchester clubs and Chelsea as well as hosting Tottentham.

Gameweek 6 looks the ideal time to tap into their assets. Between GWK 6 and 15 they arguably only have one tough fixture – a trip to Arsenal in GWK 9. Other than that they have a see of blue on the season ticker.

For me I’m looking at bringing in some defensive coverage then – perhaps Keane, Pickford even. Williams could be another.

In attack we’ll have time to assess a potential new striker as well as Klassen.

With Everton defence and attack providing strong value returns in seasons past how are you looking to get the most of the Toffees next season?

Find it tough to get a good start in FPL?

Here's my look at how the Scout Picks did in GWK 1 last season and what lessons we can learn from our - as it turns out very average - picks.

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2017/06/29/a-good-start-in-fpl-lessons-learnt-from-201617/

Hey you guys!

I've been playing around with a scoring projection system over the last few days, very simple stuff, just based on Goals Scored / Conceded at Home / Away last season.

I'm multiplying the average goals scored by the attacking team by the average goals conceded by the defending team (taking home and away into account), and dividing through by the average number of goals scored by all teams per game. In theory, this means that for a team scoring twice the league average playing a team conceding twice the league average, I will project four times the average number of goals being scored.

I've done a bit of back analysis and there is a decent trend from last season, but with a whole load of scatter. Obviously there is also the problem that this is a whole new season that will have different numbers.

The results I get out seem pretty believable, and maybe provide a slightly more logical basis for assessing likely scoring and clean sheet potential than the usual arbitrary numbers.

Results (of my analysis, not the actual results unless it works far far better than I expect) for the first 5 weeks including total goals scored and conceded are given below. See what you think:

Projected goals scored
1 2 3 4 5 Total
ARS 2.9 1.8 1.4 2.9 1.3 10.3
BOU 0.9 2.7 1.5 0.6 2.8 8.5
BRI 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.4 0.9 4.9
BUR 0.4 1.5 0.2 1.9 0.4 4.5
CHE 3.8 0.5 3.1 1.5 3.1 11.9
CPL 1.9 0.9 1.7 1.0 1.3 6.9
EVE 2.6 0.6 0.6 1.4 0.5 5.9
HUD 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.7 1.5 5.2
LEI 0.6 2.4 0.4 1.0 1.0 5.4
LIV 1.9 3.4 2.5 1.1 3.1 12.1
MCY 2.1 2.1 2.5 1.8 2.5 10.9
MUN 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.4 8.3
NEW 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.4 1.9 7.4
SOT 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 6.3
STO 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 4.3
SWA 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.9 0.3 4.6
TOT 2.0 1.5 3.3 1.2 3.4 11.4
WAT 1.2 0.9 2.0 0.6 1.1 5.8
WBA 2.0 0.6 1.7 0.8 1.8 6.9
WHM 0.6 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 5.9

Projected Goals Conceded:
1 2 3 4 5 Total
ARS 0.6 1.4 2.5 0.6 3.1 8.1
BOU 2.0 0.9 2.5 2.9 0.9 9.1
BRI 2.1 2.4 2.0 0.8 2.8 10.1
BUR 3.8 0.6 3.3 1.0 3.1 11.9
CHE 0.4 1.5 0.6 1.0 1.3 4.9
CPL 0.6 3.4 0.9 1.9 1.2 7.9
EVE 0.6 2.1 3.1 1.2 1.4 8.4
HUD 1.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.0 7.1
LEI 2.9 0.7 1.9 1.5 1.5 8.6
LIV 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.8 0.4 5.7
MCY 1.1 0.6 1.5 1.1 1.1 5.4
MUN 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.5 3.3
NEW 2.0 1.4 1.4 1.9 0.9 7.5
SOT 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.6 1.3 4.9
STO 2.6 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.9 9.4
SWA 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.4 3.4 9.5
TOT 1.0 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.3 3.4
WAT 1.9 2.7 0.9 1.3 2.5 9.3
WBA 0.9 1.5 0.7 1.4 1.2 5.7
WHM 1.7 1.9 1.1 0.7 1.8 7.3

Bournmouth have a better attacking run than you might realize, but not sure I'll be punting on WBA or Sou based on last years numbers.