When to take hits and the importance of rolling transfers in FPL

Our new FPL Masterclass series unites three of the best Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers around: two-time India champion Lateriser, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar and five-time top 1,000 finisher Tom Freeman.

Between them, they have 20 overall ranks in the top 10,000, nine of which were within the top 1k.

They’ll be chipping in with regular Fantasy advice ahead of the start of 2021/22, with opinion on everything from tips for newcomers to captaincy picks.

Our trio of top managers will be writing for Fantasy Football Scout every week throughout the new season – and only subscribers will be able to read all of their articles in full.

• Gameweek 1 essentials
• How many proven players – and how many ‘gambles’ – shall I pick in my FPL squad?
• How important is a strong bench early in the season?
• How important is team value and when are early transfers advisable?
• Tips for a top 10k finish
• Is form or fixtures more important?

You can read all of their previous FPL Masterclass articles via the links above but this time we’ll be asking our panel: do you like to roll transfers where possible and in what situation do you contemplate hits?

TOM SAID…

Saving a transfer when possible is a really good habit to get into, as two frees can be gold. It’ll give you more flexibility, and an opportunity to change the structure of your team, too.

I tend to take four or five hits a season, but it does largely depend on how it’s going. If I’m chasing, that approach may change.

I also feel more comfortable taking a hit if one of the players I’m bringing in will be my captain, and it’s also worth noting that the Blank and Double Gameweeks throw up another set of unique circumstances. For example, if you can field only ten players in a Blank Gameweek, a hit to ensure you have 11 might be a good idea and is probably worth rolling the dice for, especially if the player coming in forms part of your longer-term plans. The same applies to a Double, as you have more chance of making the hit back.

However, my general rule is that points are the most valuable thing in the game. Remember that feeling when your forward hits the back of the net? That’s essentially what you’re throwing away with a hit.

ZOPHAR SAID…

I am a very risk-averse FPL manager so I very rarely take hits. I have a long-term plan when I pick my players with a rough idea of when I want to hop on/hop off and this allows me to space out my transfers over a few weeks. I am pretty frugal with my moves, as well, as I am very picky when transferring players into my squad and once they’re there I remind myself why I picked them and show a lot of faith, often to my detriment. 

Very often, the use of one free transfer limits your options because of the money you have in the bank. Using two transfers allows you more possibilities to upgrade a player by using the second one as a cash-enabling move – so the importance of rolling your transfer cannot be overstated.

On the rare occasion that I do take point hits, it’s usually in combination with two free transfers. This allows me to bring in three players for my squad, which are usually two key assets I have identified and one facilitator. I feel I am more likely to make up the -4 right away with three rolls of the dice. It feels like a bit of a mini-Wildcard.

Another instance where a hit might make sense is for the captaincy. If a premium asset you don’t own is heavily backed in the captain poll and you don’t like the other options in your squad, bringing in a captain for -4 can pay dividends. 

Blank and Double Gameweeks are another ball game altogether; the conventional rules don’t apply. In the former, a hit for a player who has a blank is more of a ‘-2’ as the asset you are bringing in is going to make up two points on appearance alone. However, I only bring in the player if I want him for the coming weeks, not just for the Blank Gameweek. 

In Double Gameweeks, a hit for a player with two fixtures can pay fruit as he has two bites of the cherry and hence significantly more potential to deliver big returns.

LATERISER SAID…

I haven’t particularly thought about rolling transfers whenever possible because by nature I’m a very opportunistic manager. I’ll always want to look for opportunities to make my team better and gain points in the next Gameweek.

I’m also a big believer in the butterfly effect in the sense that if I’m gaining a transfer on the competition and if my team is ahead by a few transfers, then I’m able to make more opportunistic transfers in the future and I’m not focusing them on ‘fixing’ my team or using them as a ‘band-aid’.

I like using them as a luxury nitro boost, which is why I generally am not rolling transfers and always have at least seven to eight hits in a season.

My policy when it comes to hits is that if I’m jumping on a player that I’m sure of, it’s better to make a move when the good run of fixture starts – even if it is for a hit – because you’re increasing your probability of catching that haul for your player. This rule more often than not applies to attackers and, more so, premium attackers. I’m never too bothered by the downside of a four-point cost of a transfer and I’m generally not afraid of taking hits – but that is my nature as a manager.