FPL Masterclass

When to take hits and the importance of rolling transfers in FPL

Our new FPL Masterclass series unites three of the best Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers around: two-time India champion Lateriser, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar and five-time top 1,000 finisher Tom Freeman.

Between them, they have 20 overall ranks in the top 10,000, nine of which were within the top 1k.

They’ll be chipping in with regular Fantasy advice ahead of the start of 2021/22, with opinion on everything from tips for newcomers to captaincy picks.

Our trio of top managers will be writing for Fantasy Football Scout every week throughout the new season – and only subscribers will be able to read all of their articles in full.

You can read all of their previous FPL Masterclass articles via the links above but this time we’ll be asking our panel: do you like to roll transfers where possible and in what situation do you contemplate hits?

TOM SAID…

Saving a transfer when possible is a really good habit to get into, as two frees can be gold. It’ll give you more flexibility, and an opportunity to change the structure of your team, too.

I tend to take four or five hits a season, but it does largely depend on how it’s going. If I’m chasing, that approach may change.

I also feel more comfortable taking a hit if one of the players I’m bringing in will be my captain, and it’s also worth noting that the Blank and Double Gameweeks throw up another set of unique circumstances. For example, if you can field only ten players in a Blank Gameweek, a hit to ensure you have 11 might be a good idea and is probably worth rolling the dice for, especially if the player coming in forms part of your longer-term plans. The same applies to a Double, as you have more chance of making the hit back.

However, my general rule is that points are the most valuable thing in the game. Remember that feeling when your forward hits the back of the net? That’s essentially what you’re throwing away with a hit.

ZOPHAR SAID…

I am a very risk-averse FPL manager so I very rarely take hits. I have a long-term plan when I pick my players with a rough idea of when I want to hop on/hop off and this allows me to space out my transfers over a few weeks. I am pretty frugal with my moves, as well, as I am very picky when transferring players into my squad and once they’re there I remind myself why I picked them and show a lot of faith, often to my detriment. 

Very often, the use of one free transfer limits your options because of the money you have in the bank. Using two transfers allows you more possibilities to upgrade a player by using the second one as a cash-enabling move – so the importance of rolling your transfer cannot be overstated.

On the rare occasion that I do take point hits, it’s usually in combination with two free transfers. This allows me to bring in three players for my squad, which are usually two key assets I have identified and one facilitator. I feel I am more likely to make up the -4 right away with three rolls of the dice. It feels like a bit of a mini-Wildcard.

Another instance where a hit might make sense is for the captaincy. If a premium asset you don’t own is heavily backed in the captain poll and you don’t like the other options in your squad, bringing in a captain for -4 can pay dividends. 

Blank and Double Gameweeks are another ball game altogether; the conventional rules don’t apply. In the former, a hit for a player who has a blank is more of a ‘-2’ as the asset you are bringing in is going to make up two points on appearance alone. However, I only bring in the player if I want him for the coming weeks, not just for the Blank Gameweek. 

In Double Gameweeks, a hit for a player with two fixtures can pay fruit as he has two bites of the cherry and hence significantly more potential to deliver big returns.

LATERISER SAID…

I haven’t particularly thought about rolling transfers whenever possible because by nature I’m a very opportunistic manager. I’ll always want to look for opportunities to make my team better and gain points in the next Gameweek.

I’m also a big believer in the butterfly effect in the sense that if I’m gaining a transfer on the competition and if my team is ahead by a few transfers, then I’m able to make more opportunistic transfers in the future and I’m not focusing them on ‘fixing’ my team or using them as a ‘band-aid’.

I like using them as a luxury nitro boost, which is why I generally am not rolling transfers and always have at least seven to eight hits in a season.

My policy when it comes to hits is that if I’m jumping on a player that I’m sure of, it’s better to make a move when the good run of fixture starts – even if it is for a hit – because you’re increasing your probability of catching that haul for your player. This rule more often than not applies to attackers and, more so, premium attackers. I’m never too bothered by the downside of a four-point cost of a transfer and I’m generally not afraid of taking hits – but that is my nature as a manager.

400 Comments Post a Comment
  1. United10
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Which is better pick? Already have TAA
    a) Robertson & Buendia
    b) Digne & Grealish

    1. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A

    3. Bragazeti
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A

  2. the dom 1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Thoughts on this team pls?

    Sandchez
    Shaw, Coufal, Robbo
    Barnes, Buendia, Salah, Bruno
    Watkins, Antonio, DCL

    Steele, White, Brownhill, Manquillo

    Cheers

    1. Your Man With The Hair
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I've removed Watkins from my team with Grealish away and Ings in. Tipped the sclaes for Wilson.

    2. Bragazeti
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I think TAA is worth the .5 over Robbo because of the direct free kicks. Try and squeeze him in

    3. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Cheers for the comments

  3. Flair
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    With a week to go, currently on this

    Sanchez (Gunn)
    TAA - Shaw - Digne (Veltman, Om)
    Salah - Bruno - Barnes - Raphinha (Brownhill)
    Ings - Antonio - Toney

    Like it.

    1. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Looking forward to when Kane transfers to City and people are like how do I get Son, Salah, Bruno and Kane?

      1. Flair
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Bruno -> Harrison
        Toney -> Kane

        Done.

        1. thepeen555
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          He included Bruno so removing him isn't done lol

          1. Flair
            • 3 Years
            2 years, 8 months ago

            Can't have everyone!

      2. thepeen555
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Impossible surely. Without an ok team behind the rest

    2. DantheManinaPan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Very strong.

      (Though I would say that because it looks just like mine heheh - I've got Jota over Barnes and Coufal over Digne.)

    3. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Grealish+Buendia+Willock over Barnes+Raphina+Toney

      1. Flair
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Willock hasn't even signed and no idea what Jack's playing time will be while Pep beds him into the system, especially with England's run to the final.

  4. R.C
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Saints fans - will Obafemi get any minutes or is he being sold?

    1. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      dont go there

  5. thepeen555
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    JWP yes or no?

    1. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Sexy Phil Jones chooses a sexy FPL asset

      1. thepeen555
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Gotta love Phil Jones lmao

    2. Bragazeti
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Fixtures aren't great and I think Soton will have a slow start

      1. thepeen555
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Yeah could be a wait and see with fixtures they have

  6. Bojan Horsemack
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Grealish isn't the best without the ball... I'm not convinced he fits Pep's aggressive hyper-pressing model. As talented as he is, he can also be really sloppy in possession as well, particularly doing the simple things. Southgate was well aware of this in the Euros. I think he'll need to step up a bit to be a City regular. I can see him being played more frequently in the easier fixtures, and as an impact sub (despite the price). Could still score well in FPL though at that price. Thoughts?

    1. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I just posted much the same. It does strike me as an odd transfer - but I do trust Pep knows what he's doing. But yeh, I also see mostly sub appearances early doors.

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      He will be playing for the Manchester City Lazy Susans!

    3. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I think he's good enough at what he's not good at.

      City have a lot of possession, normally anyway, so if he can do magic with that possession, there's a good reason to have him on the pitch. The team can counter-balance any deficencies in his play, I think. But if the balance doesn't work, and the team falls apart, then he'll be hooked.

      Good impact sub, potentially, too. Fewer minutes in Pep Roulette should mean fewer injuries. And the minutes he's on the pitch are more likely explosive. He's in my team, but then so is Foden, Mahrez and Torres (and Kane). 😀

  7. Arteta
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    FC Barcelona are in shambles. Their best player ever is leaving and new signings still can't be registered. What a mess. Their downfall has begun...

    1. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Well you'd know, Arteta!

    2. Haa-lala-land
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Messi has happily accepted them paying him 250,000 a week or however much, for over ten years. He is as much to blame for Barcelona going bankrupt. The least he should do for them is stay for a year on a huge paycut.

  8. Arteta
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Which club will sign Messi?

    1. Bojan Horsemack
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Probably Barcelona.

      Otherwise PSG

      1. Zimo
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Barcelona? The clubs already said they can't. That's why people are asking where he will sign

      2. Andy_Social
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        He's not going anywhere. Barca's solution to their shambles is to blackmail La Liga. It's basically "Let us break the rules or you'll lose the league's most valuable asset"

        1. Bojan Horsemack
          • 10 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          Exactly. It's a powerplay. Might backfire though yet

    2. R.C
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      PSG

    3. Jdpz
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      P$G or City

    4. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Brisbane Roar

    5. Rigid Digit
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Crystal Palace

  9. FPL Diet
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Which would you pick?

    1) Bruno - Smith Rowe
    2) Havertz - Greenwood + funds

    Cheers

  10. damiang2233
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Looking at Snachez for goals but is Brigton's defence weak and low on back up? especially now white is gone to Arsenal?

  11. schlupptheweek
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    With the amount of spoonfeeding of the template team on Twitter and FPL website and the fact almost everyone will have Bruno or Salah captain from the start, it seems a bit pointless going for template unless you're interested in getting off to a nice solid rank of 50k to 300k the first 6-8 gameweeks. Being willing to risk a completely non-template team means the likelihood of a disaster is far higher (as I encounter frequently) but at the same time could pay off big time if the template underperforms. Therefore I present this horrible team with that in mind:
    Bachmann
    Cancelo TAA Veltman
    Pepe Sarr Mane (VC) Jota Mahrez
    Werner (C) Jimenez

    Foster White Obafemi Johnson
    I have 2.0M in the bank (probably Jota or Pepe to Sanchez post GW3). The idea is to pack it out with differentials including captain and considering loads of the top 100 had Kane and Son from the start, I thought why not embrace the chaos and pandemonium.

    1. Bojan Horsemack
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      The amount of spoonfeeding is spoiling the game, IMO. All the great research on here ends up directly with the masses.

    2. R.C
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Why Bachmann?

      1. schlupptheweek
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Watford are quite defensive and as we see with the Villas and Burnleys, teams where the defenders get lower bonus points and the keeper gets a fair few saves, will more likely end up with those 10-11 points hauls if they get a cleansheet.

    3. Your Man With The Hair
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A rank of 50-300k is exactly what I'm aiming for after 6 weeks.

      You seem to be picking differentials for the sake of it. It will more than likely end in a WC in GW3 or 4.

      1. schlupptheweek
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        That's fair enough and great aim. I'm just trying to aim for that top 10k bracket in the first few weeks. I would most likely end up with 2-3 million rank with this approach but if I'm very lucky this differential approach is more likely to get to the upper echelons considering the large numbers with extremely similar teams. At the end of day FPL is fun and going template just doesn't entertain me, I can always move more template with transfers however badly or well I do.

        1. Your Man With The Hair
          • 13 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          If you're picking a differential team for the fun of it that's different, and the reward could be huge if not very unlikely. Totally agree that the game is spoiled a bit with the freedom of information and data now available to the masses, but that's just part of it now.
          Maybe try mix the template with one or two differentials. Jota, Mahrez, Cancelo are all proven rotation risks. Werner and Pepe have proved to be highly inconsistent. It just leaves you quite vunerable to a disaster.

    4. Flair
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I would love to have that rank after the first few GWs - certainly miles better than my previous two starts.

    5. Old Bull
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I like the Jimenez And Sarr picks. If you’re brave enough to risk City, then Cancelo and Mahrez for sure. If you want to play for fun, it’s a bit like backing longer-priced horse. You could ask what’s the worse way to fail, a team that’s off template, or a team that fails with everyone else? I’d say the latter because you’ve gone against your own instincts.

    6. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Chaos is a ladder

    7. Haa-lala-land
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Oddly, the ones who are going template or there abouts, are the same ones that think they'll WC GW 3 or 4. That doesn't really make sense to me, but hey-ho.

  12. Sterling Malory
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    A) DCL & Raphinna
    B) Son and Dallas (352)

    Antonio and Toney other two strikers

    1. Saint & Reevesy
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A for me

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      B

  13. Jdpz
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Bachmann > Sanchez?

  14. Emiliano Sala
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Havertz a placeholder for gw2 grealish anyone ?

    1. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      No one!

    2. Zimo
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Placeholder for Sancho maybe

    3. Saint & Reevesy
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      It concerns me I don’t have any Chelsea in my squad, they’ll have a good season. If they do Havertz will be key.

    4. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Cheeky

  15. Tommy Tynans Left Shin Pad
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    I am pretty much set now - barring any disasters in the Community Shield / Friendlies. My final decision is between:

    1. Buendia and Bamford
    2. Raph and Ings

    I am currently on '2' - but something is still niggling at me. Which is the best combo?

    Cheers

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      2 out of these, but the Leeds fixtures are terrible

      1. The Wanton Trader
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Leeds fixtures being terrible is a bit of a myth.

        Only Man U and Liverpool I’d worry about all the way up to GW15.

        1. Dynamic Duos
          • 10 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          So get them in gwk5

    2. Zimo
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Get all 4

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Double Leeds lol

      2. devoncop
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        It's not so much the fixtures that have caused me to ditch my Leeds players but a very shambolic set of performances in preseason and an injury ravaged defensive unit.

        1. Haa-lala-land
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          Leeds forums are awash with their fans hoping to stave off "second season syndrome" and avoid relegation, which is concerning for all, and a bit surprising

    3. Gabbiadini
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      2

    4. Tommy Tynans Left Shin Pad
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Cheers all - food for thought

  16. Liberate HK - antichinazi
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Smash-the-template-team

    Bachmann
    TAA Chilwell Coufal
    Tella Havertz Mahrez Salah(C) Mane
    Toney Rodrigo

    Foster Veltman Omobamidele Obafemi

    GW2: Mane--> KDB/Son/Bruno
    GW3: Sell Havertz
    GW4: Sell Mahrez

    1. schlupptheweek
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Love the look off it unsurprisingly. Most will say that you need to downgrade a premium to upgrade Tella and Rodrigo but both players could score well despite not being nailed and will be a sub maybe 2/5 games. So go for it, you only live once.

  17. Saint & Reevesy
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    The charity shield should be interesting in terms of giving us some sort of indication of how City might set up.

    Given Jesus is the only recognised striker at 8.5 it’s amazing he’s on 3.4% ownership.

    Who’s starts up front for city IYO?

    1. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Tomorrow could be Torres. But I wouldn't assume GW1 will be overly-similar.

      1. Saint & Reevesy
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        So Jesus on the bench iyo?

    2. Zimo
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Lol it'll give nothing of the sort. It'll be a new starting 11 against Spurs. Don't get your hopes up.

      1. Saint & Reevesy
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Haha to be fair it’s the same after any city game I suppose

        1. Zimo
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          I think KDB or Torres false 9 is a possibility tho until they sign Kane or Messi. I don't think Pep rates Jesus enough to let him start as the striker in most games.

    3. Paqueta Rice
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Hot topic on this actually is decent. Good indicator for defence but maybe not so much the attack.

    4. St Pauli Walnuts
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      It doesn’t matter if he’s the only recognised striker if the preferred formation is with a false 9 … and it is

  18. Leehane
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    For first 3-4 weeks.

    A - Son & Mahrez
    B - Bruno & Toney

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      B

  19. Paqueta Rice
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    So Ole has said we signings Varane and Sancho won’t feature against Everton and may make the bench for gw1 against Leeds. Just so those that have Sancho are aware he won’t start gw1.

    Think most new this would be the case anyway but I was hopeful of a start for him myself.

    1. Zimo
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Hes also a straight up liar a lot of times so won't be surprised if Sancho does end up starting

      1. The Wanton Trader
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Bring him on at 60 mins against a tiring Leeds back line.
        I’ll take that…

        1. Zimo
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          Yeah im just gonna start with him and not waste a transfer

          1. The Wanton Trader
            • 6 Years
            2 years, 8 months ago

            Same mate. GL

        2. Your Man With The Hair
          • 13 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          Leeds don't tire! lol

          1. The Wanton Trader
            • 6 Years
            2 years, 8 months ago

            True, but it won’t be their usual back line.

  20. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Best option

    A Ings
    B Wilson

    1. Paqueta Rice
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A

    2. Leehane
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I think Ings even for the extra 0.5.

      Fancy him him to hit the ground running.

  21. Zoostation
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    A: Digne, Raphinha, Wilson

    Or

    B: Veltman, Grealish, Toney

    1. Leehane
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A - fancy Watkins or Antonio over Wilson though.

      1. Zoostation
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Thanks!

        Already have Antonio and no interest now in Watkins.

        Buendia only my interest for Villa.

  22. BobB
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Big decision to make on Iheanacho. Keep asking myself why he won't be their main man.

    1. FPLtfs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Because Vardy will be given one more year?

      1. BobB
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Last 20 games Nacho was streets ahead of Vardy, who is now in decline.

        1. FPLtfs
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          Agree, but I do believe Vardy is the one who has started their games this pre season. Correct me if I’m wrong though.

          1. Haa-lala-land
            • 3 Years
            2 years, 8 months ago

            I see Vardy and Barnes leading the line at the start. Vardy goals dried up last season only at the end when he changed his role to that of "assister" to help accommodate Nacho.
            Ive always had the impression that despite his stella end to the season, BR never fully trusted Nacho. Preseason Nacho has been playing weirdly deep.

  23. OPTA FPL
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Top 300k is the new top 10k sadly. About 200k people are copying Lateriser and Andy teams already, lots of other "pro pundit" with high followers too.

    Last season Lateriser didnt do well, imagine he gets top 1k this year again, his 150 followers should do well too

    1. Leehane
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I don’t closely follow any of the ‘experts’, but do they actually fully reveal their teams in advance?

    2. shirtless
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      15 seasons completed, 10 top 50k finishes. Never copied anyone! What's the point!?

  24. Warby84
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Digne or Dias? I have 0.5 itb

    1. Gabbiadini
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Digne, could he have pens?

      1. St Pauli Walnuts
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Where’s that come from? Without Sig … Richarl and DCL ahead of him for starters I’d have thought

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Dias

  25. Jaws
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    It all comes down to this: who will score the most points between GW1-GW4:

    A. Cresswell (442)
    B. Toney (343)

    Cheers all!

  26. mcginnntonic
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    a) buendia and bruno
    b) son and barnes + 1.5m

  27. Nate(U)dog(ie)
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Very helpful article for me. I looked at my stats last season and the number of hits I took was staggering, and that is with me makkng a specific effort over the course of the season to avoid taking hits as often as was often predisposed to. So I really need to work on that. That being said, I did have a few occasions where I felt it was justified and it paid off, so I can't say for sure that I think I'll stop doing it altogether by any means, but it's the occasions where a transfer can wait a week or where I simply don't need to make one at all that I have to keep myself in check. I was better with rolling transfers last season too but not enough (I suppose taking a lot of hits makes that obvious though).