Members

What the expected goal data tells us about Fantasy assets

Fantasy managers who sign up as a Member to our website get access to a huge array of player and team statistics.

Among the underlying stats on offer is expected goal (xG) data, which many will be familiar with already.

For the uninitiated, xG is the measure of a quality of a chance based on criteria such as proximity of goal and angle of attempt.

For example, a shot from inside the six-yard box will carry a higher xG than a speculative effort from 35 yards.

Along the same lines, expected assist (xA) data calculates the quality of chance being created.

Expected goal data doesn’t predict when goals will be scored and isn’t a crystal ball for the future – rather, it is a measure of chances created in the past.

Nevertheless, many find xG data useful.

Fantasy managers can use the information to see which players are consistently being presented with – or providing – high-quality opportunities, which in turn can be helpful when making future team selections.

The rest of this article will be dedicated to looking at the xG data available in our Members’ Area, drawing attention to the players who have had significant expected goal involvement in 2019/20 so far and those who are under/overachieving based on their actual output.

Below are some of the most commonly used expected goal categories in our Members’ Area and the players featuring prominently in the respective tables.

While four matches is a small sample size, some familiar names are already leading the way.

All prices given in the tables and in the copy were correct at the time of writing (Friday).

Lessons learned from Gameweek 4

689 Comments Post a Comment
  1. CONNERS
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Is Dwight McNeil a good option for Burnley's nice run of fixtures? I see he's flagged, although I presume it's an international break 'injury' so nothing serious.

    Already have Barnes but don't mind a double-up.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Use the stats in the members area to find out.

    2. CONNERS
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      I really only got membership to support the site (looking at data isn't my thing). Plus it's interesting to hear different points of view.

      Thanks anyway though.

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        The answer to every FPL question lies in the members area. Gudmunsson has nearly twice the number of penalty box touches than McNeil for example.

    3. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Did you see this article from a couple of days ago? Can’t recall how well it answers your question https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2019/09/04/which-of-burnleys-fpl-assets-appeal-for-their-favourable-fixtures/

      1. Dennis System
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        "The answer to every FPL question lies in the members area" lol

  2. Eddie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Would you play Zinchenko or Digne as left sided CB if you had to choose between them?

  3. fc_skrald
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    I'm still tempted to bring Robinson back into my team after selling him last week.

    a Hayden -> Robinson (and play him instead of Cantwell)
    b Save the transfer

    Heaton
    TAA, Robertson, Digne, Lundstram
    Salah, Sterling, KDB, Cantwell
    Wilson, Pukki

    4.0, Greenwood, Hayden, Rico

    1. Eddie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      B

    2. CONNERS
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Could do well next GW, but poor fixtures thereafter. Would probably save the FT if it was me.

    3. Come on you Kante
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      B

    4. fc_skrald
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Thanks all, I'll try to hold it

    5. The FPL Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      B

  4. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    What a brilliant article. If Neale went, I don't think I would pay for FFS.

    1. Eddie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Could you summarise?

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        It's looking at all the Expected xG data that we have so far this season. It's a good article if you want to understand how useful xG is.

        1. Magic Zico
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 8 months ago

          How useful is it? Is this factored in in RMT tool?

          1. FPL Virgin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 8 months ago

            I'm not sure. But xGI will predict the best players in FPL if given enough time. I think once you understand it, it is incredibly useful.

            1. Magic Zico
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 8 months ago

              Just wondering whether somebody has made regression for kind of ‘predict’ which I thought that’s the RMT tool baseline. Want to know which xG is the ‘main’ predictor/contributor ... and how strong is the correlation so far. Anyway, it’s football and I love the unpredictable nature of it!

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      For my money - XG is an FPL placebo

      Man Utd currently have a better XG than Liverpool
      They also have a better XGc than BOTH Liverpool and city
      Mcgoldrick had an XG of 0.4 in GW1 yet also had 2 big chances
      Tammy got 2 goals from an XG of 0.2 in GW3
      He got 2 goals from and XG of 1.1 in GW4

      Countless other examples buried in there of how it’s not all that as a predictor of FPL performance

      I get the spirit of the “but the long run” argument, but we don’t have hundreds (or ideally, thousands) of games to wait for players to,deliver FPL returns - we have 4-5 game windows, maybe 8-10 games in some cases - even over full seasons the data is subject to variance... and when it’s not subject to variance - it’s still not a reliable predictor of FPL performance (Bilva’s season long underlying stats for example - third most shots in the city team etc)

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        Controversial opinion. People who don't fully understand xG tend not to like it.

        We're only 4 gameweeks in so of course there are outliers in the numbers. If you look back at a full season's worth of data, then xG was pretty much on the money for who were the best players in FPL.

        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 8 months ago

          Yep there are definitely different categories of opinion when it comes to XG - in addition to those who don’t understand it and don’t like it, you also have those who don’t understand it and do like it, and also those who do understand it and don’t like it 😉

          There’s also a fair bit of confirmation bias, plus for those who need XG to know Salah, Sterling, Auba, Kun etc are the best players over a season in FPL, it perhaps indicates they have wider areas of focus to address 😉

    3. el polako
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      The "Big numbers" article on its own is worth memebership for me.

  5. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    My thoughts on those with the best fixtures for next 6 or so GWs

    1) Man City
    2) Arsenal
    3) Everton
    4) Burnley
    5) West Ham
    6) Aston Villa
    7) Bournemouth

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Who would you say is the key target from teams 1 to 5?

      1. diesel001
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        Using xG and xA for attackers:

        Man City: Sterling, Aguero and KDB. The thing with Man City though is do you go with a defender instead of three attackers? I think Mahrez would be a good pick if he was guaranteed game time.

        Arsenal: Aubamenyang (especially if Lacazette is injured), Pepe

        Everton: Sigurdsson

        Burnley: Barnes

        West Ham: Haller, Anderson

        Bournemouth: C.Wilson

        1. FOO FIGHTER
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 8 months ago

          If you going to triple up on City has to be for 3 attack.

          1. diesel001
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 8 months ago

            Not necessarily. Auba could match Aguero over the next 6 GWs and then having a Man City defender could actually be more beneficial.

            1. FOO FIGHTER
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 8 months ago

              So triple up of whom will guarantee more points than Sterling, KDB and Kun?

          2. jia you
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 8 months ago

            Def does not imo, still one of the very best teams to invest in defensively plus they have the fixtures!

        2. Christina.
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 8 months ago

          I dont need XoX's to know this.

    2. jia you
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      8 of my assets are from your top 5 🙂
      1) Triple up
      2) One attacker
      4) Triple up
      5) One attacker

  6. The Mighty Whites
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    1FT, 0.3 ITB-

    Pope, Button

    VVD, Digne, AWB, Montoya, Diop

    Salah, Sterling, KDB, Martial, Dendoncker

    Pukki, Barnes, Greenwood

    A- AWB to Otamendi
    B- Martial to James
    C- Sonething else

    1. LSK
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      A

  7. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    There are international games until the early hours of Wednesday morning. I would hang fire with those transfers! Even if you're losing team value.

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Yeah, I am holding out until just before the deadline.

      From what I can see all my players are safe from price drops. Just need to keep an eye on increases.

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        One big injury during the IB could really shake things up.

        1. FOO FIGHTER
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 8 months ago

          Definitely. At least Salah and Mane not playing. Good news for their owners.

    2. jia you
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      If you have a playing bench you can afford to make early moves and not lose TV. If not then, good advice!

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        Very true. As Mark said on his meet the manager video, if you have a good first sub then it's less risky to go early.

  8. Come on you Kante
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    What do we think?

    Pope (stekelenburg)
    Matip Emerson lundstram (kelly Rico
    Salah kdb sterling cantwell McGinn
    Aguero Haller (Greenwood)

    1 free transfer (who to swap)
    0.1 itb

  9. Kay317
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Any walker owners worried he'll be benched next game? I've already used my FT for this week so most likely going to just keep him in but hate the thought of a 6mil defender sitting on the bench.

    1. pieces
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      He'll play

      1. Kay317
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        I have a feeling that with laporte out he won't want to change things even more at the back. But you never know with Pep! Cheers

  10. Ritchies Magic Hat
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Digne and Dendoncker or Masuaku/Lowton/Kiki and James ?

    1. The Ejiptian King
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      To play every week?

      1. Ritchies Magic Hat
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        Yeah, unless the 4.5 has a really tough fixture, then Lundstram would come in

  11. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Timely article!

    @Skonto (or anyone) - do you have a teachable point of view on how McGoldrick is down as having both 2 big chances, but an XG of 0.4 in GW1?

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      That does seem odd. I’d expect a Big Chance to score at least 0.33 xG. How often are big chances missed?

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        No idea, but it once again calls into question the credibility of both of those particular statistical measures as predictors of FPL performance imo

  12. pieces
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    A.Kane or
    B. Abumayeng

    1. The Ejiptian King
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      I don't think I could ever recommend Kane again but I'm too biased now.

      1. pieces
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        😀

      2. pieces
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        Hard to overlook their fixtures though

        1. The Ejiptian King
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 8 months ago

          That's what I thought......

    2. The FPL Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      B

    3. pieces
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      So I've had Kane since week 1 and I'm well p.... off. Pulled the trigger on Abumayeng .
      Everyone get Kane in your teams cos now, he's guaranteed to shoot the lights out 🙄

  13. langov
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    On WC right now, any obvious mistakes?

    Pope - (Button)
    TAA - Maitland-Niles-Lundstram (Guilbert, Hanley)
    Salah-De Bruyne-Dilva-Mount
    Barnes-Aguero-Abraham

    Thinking about:

    1. Dilva-> Richarlison, Mount ->Yarmolenko, Maitland-Niles -> Otamendi
    2. Keep
    3. Other changes?

    1. DIMITRIS
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      I'm afraid Abraham will have it tough against Wolwes away and Liverpool at home, so maybe Haller is better pick.
      Dilva and Maitland Niles OUT, Lanzini and Digne IN.
      I'd change that, otherwise looks good.

  14. DIMITRIS
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Guys, help me choose between these two WC drafts:
    1) Pope (Button)
    VVD| TAA | Soyuncu ( Hanley, Lundstram)
    Salah | Sterling | Pepe | Ceballos (Dendoncker)
    Barnes | Haller | Abraham
    or
    2) Pope (Button)
    VVD | Otamendi | Soyuncu (Hanley, Lundstram)
    Salah | Sterling | Son | Pepe (Cantwell)
    Haller | Barnes (Greenwood)

    1. pieces
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      1 for me, bit more balanced

      1. DIMITRIS
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        Cheers. Yeah, that's my only concern with draft 2, Son is very very good FPL asset, but the team is less balanced and has less longevity. I guess I'll think it over many times until deadline.

    2. Stokelona
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      B imo, that midfield is so good with son and Pépé and otamendi may keep pace with Trent in the short term with city’s fixtures.

      1. DIMITRIS
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        Cheers. Yeah, that mid looks good, but the only concern is balance. Anyways, I can always take a -4 hit if things go south and make it more balnced. Thanks for input 🙂

    3. jason_ni
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      In b you are relying on starting either lundstrom, cantwell or greenwood who doesn't start and Hanley who plays for a team who cant defend.
      The other midfielders are great, but I don't fancy starting one of those every week.

  15. WWF
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Salah and Barkley to Sterling and James?

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Just upgrade Barkley?

  16. FOO FIGHTER
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Would you rather have 3 x premium and 2 x 4.5 mids, 1 x Premium and 1 x budget fwd up top

    Or

    2 x Premium , 2 x budget 1 x 4.5m in midfield and 3 x budget up top?

  17. Rasping Drive
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Anyone that still has Kane - will you be captaining him against Palace?

    1. The Ejiptian King
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Never captaining him again.

      1. FOO FIGHTER
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        Hahahahaha

        1. The Ejiptian King
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 8 months ago

          Ty

      2. Rasping Drive
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        Hehehe. Not surprised after the last farce.

        Interestingly Palace have conceded the fewest shots on target in the first 4 games of any team in the Premiership. Norwich have conceded the most. It might persuade those that are considering Kane (c) ahead of a City player.

        1. The Ejiptian King
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 8 months ago

          Kane doesn't even have a good record against Palace, Son does though.

        2. FOO FIGHTER
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 8 months ago

          That is interesting. For home games Palace defender may be a good shout?

          1. Rasping Drive
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 8 months ago

            Perhaps, only 2 goals conceded in total so far, although their opposition haven’t been the best (Everton & Villa at home, ManU & SHU away). Maybe flying under the radar a little.

  18. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Who do you think scores more points in weeks 5-8 as Trossard replacement. Max available 6 m otherwise would need to take hit or play Cantwell in City game

    A Ceballos with rotation risk (wat,AV, mun, BOU)

    B McGinn (WHU, ars, BUR, nor)

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      McGinn is nailed but depends on how bad Trossard's injury is.

      I would just play Cantwell.

  19. jia you
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    I guess there will be a good few of us rocking 4 players in the City v Norwich game next weekend. I wonder will Farke go gung ho, if he does it could be carnage!

    1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      I may have 5. Don’t think Norwich know any other way and with the injuries you have to bet on goals either end

      1. bench boost for every gamew…
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        Norwich without possibly two best cb and City lost Laporte, goals in both end

    2. Krafty Werks
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      4-1 City

  20. But to who Chris Kamara
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Anyone keeping Ceballos will he start the next game?

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Keeping as I have other plans but if he’s not starting vs Watford I think he may have to go.

  21. Bruce Lee
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Can anyone help please?

    I cannot see the stats maps in the members area, this is for heatmaps, shot maps etc

    I can just see an empty image of a field for all players that I have viewed

    I have tried to delete cookies and cache but nothing has worked

    Browser is Chrome and device is a Macbook

    Any help appreciated

    1. The Ejiptian King
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      I remember someone saying that adblock was causing that problem, try turning it off.

  22. Klein
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    As a belgium fan, all these talented players coming together in a matter of few years feels really good.

    1. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Wasted opportunity if you dont win anything with the current generation

    2. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      last chance saloon now, with best generation being late 20´s now. Defence is getting older and not much developing there atm, and for all their good attackers none of them are really world class (i´m talking strikers out and out, Origi, Lukaku, Mertens etc. Put one of the star strikers form any of the other great teams, and they would be hard to beat. Martinez also forced to play with wing backs as they are none decent right or left backs. next championship will be their best chance to win, and they have to produce a world class striker within a year.

  23. Hazardous1983
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Jota out for abraham.or barnes?

    1. Krafty Werks
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Barnes with the sea of green.

    2. Bram
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Barnes - great fixtures and cheaper with no Champions League complications.

  24. Hazardous1983
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Own mount

  25. Hazardous1983
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    What to do with this

    Pope (button)
    Vvd awb digne zinchenko lundstram
    Salah sterling mount kdb (dendonker)
    Pukki (greenwood)

    1.4m in bank

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Your midfield is good. You need someone next to Pukki.

      1. Hazardous1983
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        I have jota plan to take.him out for abraham or barnes

        1. FOO FIGHTER
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 8 months ago

          Go Barnes.

          1. Hazardous1983
            • 13 Years
            4 years, 8 months ago

            Both have potential

  26. FOO FIGHTER
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    For Arsenal fans.

    Do you believe Cabellos will be signed permanently?

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Yes

  27. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Anyone else starting to use Lundstram & Cantwell as their “11th man”?

    They’re both good enough to start semi-regularly imo & helps a lot with both budget and squad depth - especially if paired with Kelly (If Kelly keeps that slot obvs)

    Now if we just had a nailed 4.5 striker...

    1. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Yea but I dont like it.

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 8 months ago

        Lundy OOP & Cantwell pretty attacking... as long as you have them backed up with 10 other quality starters it’s pretty ok imo

        Both look like they have pretty high ceilings also - the danger is as with all rotations though that you end up dodging their points hauls by having them benched

        1. Brosstan
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 8 months ago

          Actually I wont have them as starting players. Bench players for me.. Cantwell is fine but I dont really like having Lundstram as the first defender if one of my defenders get benched. Ota, Zinch and TAA could all get rotated and then I have Lundstram coming in who has awful fixtures from gw6

          1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 8 months ago

            5, 8, 10, 11, 13 are startable for Lundy I reckon

            Cantwell looks like he’ll actually be involved in a lot of Norwich’s goals & they’ve a pretty green fixture run

            They don’t need to do much either - 6 points is a haul on value for a 4.5 after all, let alone a 4.0

    2. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Yeah, 4.5m nailed striker would be great! I am holding onto Greenwood for that reason. His price seems safe and you never know if Ole is going to unleash him at one point or another. Also gives me more to spend in the rest of my team.

  28. Modest Bob
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Wtf it's internationals this weekend

    1. Maddi Son
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      That's gotta be brutal if you have only just genuinely found out!

  29. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 8 months ago

    Assuming Trossard is fit who do you prefer between:

    A) Trossard
    B) James
    C) Ceballos

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Trossard

    2. Maddi Son
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 8 months ago

      Those were my 3 options for Perez. I went with C.