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The case for Firmino in a Liverpool triple-up for Double Gameweek 24

Fantasy Premier League managers should consider Roberto Firmino (£9.3m) as Double Gameweek 24 edges closer.

That’s when Liverpool play two fixtures in one Gameweek, travelling to Wolves and West Ham in the space of six days – and many of us are still working out which type of triple-up to invest in.

Going into Gameweek 23, the worldwide ownership figures tell us that the offensive and defensive double-ups are likely to be given equal consideration at this stage:

  • Virgil van Dijk (£6.4m): 40.1%
  • Sadio Mané (£12.4m): 40.0%
  • Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m): 38.8%
  • Mohamed Salah (£12.3m): 25.4%
  • Andrew Robertson (£7.0m): 19.6%

The two prevailing options in the FPL community thus far are a Mané/Salah double-up or one involving both Alexander-Arnold and Robertson.

However, sitting at just 9.6% ownership, Firmino should not be overlooked as an alternative route into a Liverpool triple-up.

In this article, we are going to analyse the Brazilian’s underlying data from recent matches and compare him against other Liverpool options.

As this uses data from the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area, only those with Membership can access it in full.

Do Liverpool’s fixtures warrant an attacking double-up?

Before comparing Liverpool’s attacking assets, it seems wise to examine the defensive data of their Double Gameweek opponents, if nothing else, to check that they are as brittle at the back as we need them to be.

As both Wolves and West Ham will be playing at home in Double Gameweek 24, we have assessed them over their last four matches played in front of their own fans.

Last four home matches

As you can see, we get quite mixed results from the two teams.

West Ham look considerably more vulnerable to Liverpool’s attack as they have conceded 30 shots in the box over their last four at home, only five sides shipping more efforts there.

However, by comparison, Wolves have allowed just 18 shots in their home penalty box over the same period, one fewer than Liverpool and bettered only Sheffield United (16) and Manchester United (13).

Last four home matches

When it comes to the quality of chances being given up by either defence, the gap is even bigger.

As you can see, only Aston Villa (17) have conceded more big chances in their last four at home than West Ham (13).

As for Wolves, their five big chances conceded is the third-best in the league and bettered only by Southampton (three) and Manchester United (two).

However, the expected data for Wolves’ last four home matches shows they should have conceded 3.12 goals but, let in five. Across the whole season, their expected goals conceded (xGC) figure sits at 25.31 but Nuno Espirito Santo’s men have actually let in 28.

That may be why Wolves have only kept two clean sheets from a possible 11 at Molineux.

This data seems to be consistent with the theory that Wolves are continuing to earn their reputation for clean sheet ‘nearly men’ i.e. a team that often boasts decent defensive figures but has a hard time converting these into concrete shutouts.

Furthermore, in four home matches against last season’s top-six in 2019/20, Nuno Espirito Santo’s men have conceded 10 times.

It, therefore, seems likely that Liverpool will find a way to break through Wolves’ defence in Double Gameweek 24, even if they may not thrash them, which seems a fate they may spare for West Ham.

The Hammers may be in the early stages of a new (or perhaps, we should say ‘returning’) manager but, based on recent performances, they may have to work miracles to improve in time to face Liverpool, especially with their goalkeeper situation so uncertain.

Either way, it looks unlikely that West Ham will make life too difficult for Liverpool in Double Gameweek 24, especially as the Reds have scored four times in two of their last three Premier League visits to east London.

How does Firmino compare with his colleagues?

In short, the answer is very favourably.

For some time now, Firmino’s underlying statistics have been competing very nicely with both Salah and Mané which should turn the heads of Fantasy managers considering his cost.

We’ll start by looking at how Firmino has fared over the last four Gameweeks.

Last four matches

During this time, the Brazilian has shot 13 times in the box, more than any of his colleagues.

In fact, during this period, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.9m), Danny Ings (£6.8m) and Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) are the only players in the whole of the Premier League to have registered more efforts inside the penalty area.

As you can see, during this period, Mané has managed 11 penalty box shots in 339 minutes while Salah has just nine in 338.

Last four matches

Firmino has also been in a favourable position when it comes to the quality of his chances since Gameweek 19 too.

The five big chances he has been afforded in this time is the joint-best among Liverpool players, level with Mané and three more than Salah.

Furthermore, this total is the joint-second-best in the Premier League, only Jesus (nine) handed more big chances in his last four outings than Firmino.

Last four matches

Mané is the most accurate of the Liverpool options over their last four matches, registering six shots on target.

However, Firmino is only one behind the Senegalese international with five of his own, the same as Salah.

How does Firmino look on the road?

While the Brazilian has compared very favourably with his colleagues over the last four matches, he really comes into his own when we change the parameters to last four away matches.

It is a well-documented and bizarre fact that Firmino is yet to score a Premier League goal at Anfield this season.

However, he has still been finding the net on his travels, all seven of his league goals coming away from home – particularly pertinent considering that both of Liverpool’s Double Gameweek 24 fixtures are on the road.

Last four away matches

With the filter switched to last four away matches, Firmino goes further clear of his team-mates when it comes to the above goal threat statistics.

During this period, he has registered 13 shots in the box, six big chances and seven efforts on target. He has been converting too, scoring four goals in these matches, more than any other colleague.

Meanwhile, Mané has 11 in the box, four big chances and six shots on target and Salah sits further below that on 11 shots in the box, two big chances and five shots on target.

Last four away matches

When it comes to creativity, there is more parity between each member of Liverpool’s front-three during this period.

Over their last four away matches, Firmino, Mané and Salah have each played eight key passes, although the latter is the leader for big chances created (three).

Last four away matches

The expected data combines all of that information to tell us just how much consideration Firmino deserves compared to his colleagues.

Over the last four away matches, Mané has the best minutes per expected goal involvement (xGI) with a score of 108.3 but Firmino is not too far behind on 117.7.

That figure is good enough for him to be just ahead of Salah on 119.8.

Conclusion

Firmino stands every chance of matching Salah and Mané’s output in Double Gameweek 24.

With Wolves and West Ham looking likely to concede in their meetings with Liverpool, Firmino’s recent performances indicate he can be involved in making that happen.

Both over the last four matches and his last four away trips especially, the Brazilian has produced some incredibly encouraging underlying statistics.

For example, it looks as if he is just as likely to assist as Mané and more likely to score than Salah based on the numbers we have seen.

It must be said that the gap between Firmino and his two attacking colleagues is not necessarily that huge, especially as his goals are worth one less point and he cannot benefit from clean sheets either.

Therefore, it’s hard to say that he is necessarily the vastly better option regardless of cost.

However, Firmino’s valuation, at present roughly £3.0m lower than Salah or Mané’s, is the key factor here.

With the ownership figures of Salah and Mané somewhat intimidating, some Fantasy managers may feel the pressure to put their teams under major surgery to get both of them in.

Naturally, this will almost certainly result in some hits to accommodate the swapping of premium options and may, of course, mean sacrificing Kevin De Bruyne (£10.7m), who has averaged 8.8 points over the last six Gameweeks.

However, with Firmino offering an opportunity to match his more expensive colleagues, he presents a less painful route into a Liverpool attacking double-up.

For example, those in possession of Tammy Abraham (£7.8m) and some cash in the bank may find Double Gameweek 24 an ideal time to upgrade to Firmino – as Chelsea face a resurgent Arsenal, Leicester, Manchester United and Spurs between then and Gameweek 27.

Crucially, if opting for Firmino over Salah or Mané allows Fantasy managers to avoid a hit for Double Gameweek 24, when hits may well be quite common, it could even put them in an advantageous position before a ball has even been kicked.

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907 Comments Post a Comment
  1. hueycho
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 8 days ago

    1st!! Yay!!!

    1. jennmenn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      wd 🙂

      1. hueycho
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 7 days ago

        🙂

    2. Fitzy.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      This forum just gets better every day.

      1. hueycho
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Tell me about it!

    3. mikeycee93
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Loser

      1. hueycho
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 7 days ago

        FO

  2. JustPark
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    *Origi

  3. Printing Mane
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    No Si Senor for me

    1. Zladan
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      No señor

  4. jia you jia you
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    Rashford, Richarlison, Son and Alli all to outscore LIV assets in GW24...its going to be a damp squib!
    As from GW25 onwards, that's where the points are... Salah, Mane and Trent all the way 🙂

  5. Differential (c)
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    Wonder if anyone is crazy enough to punt on Minamino in DGW 24.

    1. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Wouldnt be crazy. Would be stupid.

      Maybe he starts one, but no way does he start both - so why bother?

    2. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Someone will. But not in these parts. It'll be glue sniffers, climate emergency deniers etc.

    3. StayoutheSpiceZone
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      He will play the cup game in between

  6. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    Any chance Boly is back for gw24?
    Hoping not obviously

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      no chance

  7. King Kohli
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    How would you improve this team in 2 or 3 transfers?

    Guaita Stek
    TAA Soy Lundy Rico Williams
    Mane Salah KDB Maddison Cantwell
    Vardy Ings DCL

    1 Ft 0 itb

    A. Guaita > McCarthy, Maddison > Martial
    B. Guaita > McCarthy, DCL > Rashford, Maddison > 4.3 fodder. Can upgrade Rico later and rotate 4th defender/4th midfielder for one spot.
    C. Any other suggestions

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Definitely not a or b in view of fixture. I would save

      1. King Kohli
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Forgot to mention that the transfers will be over the next two weeks.

        1. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 8 days ago

          B in that case

    2. B.D.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 8 days ago

      C save ft, your team is in a good shape

  8. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    Captain

    A kdb
    B vardy
    C Mane

    Thanks

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      B - Burnley defence not all that these days

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Cheers.

  9. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    Non ings owners , thinking of bringing him in ? Thanks

    1. The 12th Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      I’ve brought him in this week for Jimenez

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Cheers .

    2. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Did it for Jimi. Shame because I love that guy. But his form plus the fixtures after pool are just too good to ignore.

    3. teneighty
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      People will say it's too late. Don't listen to them.

    4. Holmes (specialist in failu…
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Maybe if Vardy continue to disappoint but you should get him if you can

    5. Bavarian
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Tammy > Ings done

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        That would be my.move. then upgrade cheap defender to vvd or Robertson. Thanks

    6. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Thanks all.

    7. manu4life99
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      I'm holding off until after blanks against cpl liv

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Cheers

  10. The 12th Man
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    Forget Maddison,Rashford > Mane,Maupay?

    And do this instead
    Maddison > Son
    Week 24- Vardy > Firmino

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Not for me.maddison to son looks good but I wouldn't lose vardy

      1. The 12th Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Could do Maddison > Son
        Then Rico,Soyuncu > Williams,Gomez -4 instead.

        1. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 8 days ago

          Show your team 🙂

          1. The 12th Man
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 8 days ago

            As it stands
            Ryan
            TAA,Soyuncu, Lundstrum
            Salah,KDB, Maddison,Sarr
            Vardy, Rashford,Ings

            Button, Cantwell, Rico,Kelly

            1FT 2.5m itb

            1. Ajax Hamsterdam
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 8 days ago

              I would do soy to Robertson or Rico/Kelly to vvd. And forget about maddison to son.

              1. Ajax Hamsterdam
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                Or what about save transfer and maddison to Alli and upgrade a defender to gomez for free ?

                1. The 12th Man
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 6 Years
                  1 month, 7 days ago

                  Sorry for the late reply, I’d gone to work.
                  Yeh that could be an option too. Although think I’d rather go Richarlison or Mahrez than Alli.

    2. RED_ARMY
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Tempted with the same moves. Can go for Robbo as third Pool option but prefer gambling on Son for the next few and see how it goes. Leicester are losing tempo so thinking one of Maddy or Vardy has to go for me.

  11. farmerfat
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    I want Mane but I also want Bob. 4 liverpool players for the double?

    1. Holmes (specialist in failu…
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Apparently that's not possible unless you are good at hacking

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Go for it 🙂

      1. farmerfat
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        The dream

  12. Bavarian
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    Button or Ramsdale to McCarthy??

    1. Holmes (specialist in failu…
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Ramsdale

    2. farmerfat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Ramsdale easy switch

  13. manu4life99
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    Any news on Ramsdale injury? Prefer to hold for a gw or 2 more as would need a 4pt hit

    1. B.D.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Don’t take hits for keepers

    2. The Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      you would need a CS to make it worth while - but be better to have no playing keeper and FT next week.

  14. The Units
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    I am all over the place tonight, but here is the latest for GW24 and thinking this is looking good.

    Jimi and KdB (will lose 0.4 TV) to Maupay/DCL and Mane (TC) - look to get KdB back GW 25/26.

    Giving me

    McCarthy
    Soy / TAA / Lundstram
    Salah / Mane (TC) / Mahrez / Maddison
    Vardy / Ings / Maupay

    Bench: Button, Reid, Rico, Douglas Luiz

    1. Holmes (specialist in failu…
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Sounds good

    2. StayoutheSpiceZone
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      I am not going to put you off, but KDB is an absolute no lose imo. He was playing right back vs Villa, played for 63 minutes and still scored 9 points!

      1. The Units
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Yeah it is a risk - the other option is Mahrez to Mane but would mean Jimi to Greenwood or the likes.

        1. jason_ni
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 8 days ago

          Agree... I sold kdb once this season.. came back with tail between my legs shortly after!
          I have salah and TAA, going extra def, you cant captain both mo and mane, and feel it's not worth tearing team up to get both.

          1. The Units
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 8 days ago

            I was thinking Mahrez could still get a few and I can bring KdB back in GW25 by taking out Salah and go to a pool DD a bit later.

            1. jason_ni
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 8 days ago

              It's a risk.. if you can stomach a salah haul(your capt If you avoid mane) and a mane fail, then do it.
              Could obviously work the other way as well,but salah has every chance to match and beat mane.

    3. Warby84
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Hendo
      Trent Sidibe Dunk
      Salah TC Mane Noble DeBruyne
      Vardy Maupay Ings

      Grealish Lundstrum Kelly

      Looking fairly set aswell with nobes coming in next week for a punt

  15. unitednations
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    Stuck in a bit of a dilemma. I currently have a forward line of these which has served me extremely well and turned my season around.
    - Vardy (bought @9.1)
    - Rashford (bought @8.4)
    - Ings (bought @6.1)

    I will need to shift out either Vardy/Rashford if I want to get Firmino (direct swap) or Mane (by getting DCL). Is it worth it? I can alternatively get Robbo by keeping the current forward line although I don’t expect pool to keep clean sheets in dgw24

    1. farmerfat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      I am in the exact same boat, same front line.
      Not considering Robbo.
      Mane requires a 3 transfer (-4) and can get Bob in for Free.
      I fear not owning Mane because of his ownership.
      Bob could be a good differential.
      That being said, no idea what I am going to do.

      1. unitednations
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        I can do martial/rashford > mane/dcl for free

    2. jason_ni
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Nevermind the double, look at their fixtures to the end of the season, I fancy lots of cs, so going for double defence, taa and vvd, getting in for double, but holding for foreseeable future.

    3. The Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Go Robbo imo

    4. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      I hate breaking that forward line up. I hate it so much in fact I'll likely sacrifice in midfield instead.

      Mane, KdB, Salah, Fleck or something like that.

  16. mcginnntonic
      1 month, 8 days ago

      son or rashford?

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Rashford for me

      2. jason_ni
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Rashford

      3. The Units
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Rash

    • mojoindojo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Get Fab out for a hit? Got no playing keeper.

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Get McCarthy

        1. jason_ni
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 8 days ago

          Thought mccarthy would be a nice differential when I brought him in back in 17.. now every man and his dog seems to be going for him!
          Hard to ignore at that price.

          1. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 8 days ago

            Nothing stays under the radar for long in Fantasy these days.

    • jason_ni
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Man utd no longer doing warm training break in qatar due to rising tensions in the region..thought there was supposed to be something big starting there in about 4 months!!
      Are united overreacting, or what does this say about the safety for the wc?

      1. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        It says. as it should have done from the start, that Qatar should NOT be holding the World Cup

        1. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 8 days ago

          Money talks

      2. Hot Toddy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Says everything you need to know about the sport.

    • RoysCallerAnne
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Bobby is a perfectly good choice if you're feeling it. He's the number 9 in the greatest team the league has ever seen after all.
      *waits for that maximum boring guy to bleat on about how often he's blanked.

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Was going for that option but reconsidering because of ings . Could have ings and Robertson instead of firmino and cheap defender.

        1. DAZZ
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 8 days ago

          This is the reason i’m not sure on Firmino, Ings is the problem

      2. Galza
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        I’m having him.
        Served me well in the past.
        VVD, Mane(c) and Firmino for me...

      3. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Greatest team the league has ever seen - good one!!!

      4. Amey
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 8 days ago

        If only we had more than 3 pool spots. Or maybe 4 😉
        Taa Robbo Mane for me. Salah would be 4th

      5. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        I'll do the honours...

        4 games with attacking returns in the last 15.

    • jorgenoj
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Rashford + Maddison --> Ayew + Mane for GW24?

      Or just Soy to Gomez? (have Salah and TAA)

      1. Bavarian
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        soy > Gomez

      2. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        I wouldn't lose rashford. Soy to Gomez

      3. The Units
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        whats the rest of your team?

    • jason_ni
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      *one off the greatest!
      If they go unbeaten, more worthy of that title, if not this team need to go on and win 2 or 3 leagues in a row.

      1. jason_ni
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Reply fail to royscalleranne

    • Differential (c)
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Kyle Walker Peters (£4.4m) continues to be heavily linked to Southampton, with Ralph Hasenhuttl reportedly set to have talks with the Tottenham Hotspurs right-back. A six month loan with an option to buy is what Southampton want, but Spurs seem to be pushing for a permanent transfer in January. He is seen as a potential long term replacement to Cedric Soares, who has confirmed his departure in the upcoming summer.

      Elsewhere, Southampton have upped their pursuit for Fulham left-back Joe Bryan, with the fee reportedly about £7-10m. He will become Ryan Bertrand's backup should he choose to switch.

    • DAZZ
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Would you chance Vardy > Firmino or Vardy > Ings? I’m chasing and need differentials. Im banking on Leicesters form turning

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Really not keen on selling vardy though. Even if Leicester form turning he can still bag the goals .

      2. HMC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Strongly considering Vardy to Firmino

    • Vimes (No Arsenal Players)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 8 days ago

      GTG?

      Ryan
      TAA Soy Lund
      Salah Mane KDB(c) Grealish
      Vardy DCL Ings
      (Button/Cantwell/Rico/Ramsay)

      Would you play Cantwell over anyone?

    • jorgenoj
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Rashford + Maddison --> Ayew + Mane for GW24?

      Or just Soy to Gomez? (have Salah and TAA)

      Current team:
      Ryan - Button
      TAA - Soy - Lundstram - Holgate - Rico
      Salah - KdB - Martial - Maddison - Dendoncker
      Vardy - Rashford - Ings

    • JuanTP
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Considering triple capt. on either Mane or Salah next double game week.

        Pros are low value opposition, Salah relatively rested and fit, quieter part of season.

        Cons are not Aguero

        Too early?

        1. Amey
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 8 days ago

          I'm sure there must be more cons 😛
          Not using it in GW 24.

        2. jason_ni
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 8 days ago

          Tc surely has to be saved for a plum BHA double.. and slap it in Duffy...

          1. JuanTP
              1 month, 8 days ago

              Ha! Probably more points reliable than Salah and Mane combined!

        3. Captain Casual
            1 month, 8 days ago

            Who would you rather

            A) soy away to burn or
            B) Lund away to ars

            ?

            Thanks

            1. The Units
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              1 month, 8 days ago

              A

            2. Camzy
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              1 month, 8 days ago

              I sadly have to play both. But A comfortably imo.

            3. Captain Casual
                1 month, 8 days ago

                Cheers. Am I crazy to thibk that ars are less potent without auba and at least Lund offers some attacking threat?

            4. Camzy
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              1 month, 8 days ago

              A) Robbo, Perez, Martial, Rashford
              B) Rico, Salah, Martial, DCL (-4)
              C) Rico, Salah, Fleck, Rashford (-4)

              For GW 24 ofc.

              1. Lateriser 12
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                C a handsdown winner for me because i prefer DCL to Fleck. Salah a must in my books.

                1. Camzy
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  I too prefer DCL to Fleck. But I also prefer Rashford to Martial...

                  1. Lateriser 12
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    1 month, 8 days ago

                    Ya i got confused there. Is DCL/Fleck the 7th or 8th attacker? If 7th, is the 8th Toddy?

                    1. Camzy
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 9 Years
                      1 month, 8 days ago

                      7th. And my 8th is Donkey.

                      1. Lateriser 12
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 8 Years
                        1 month, 8 days ago

                        Dcl then.

            5. How do you choose your captain?
              Lateriser 12
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 8 days ago

              We've seen a lot of variance in terms of how people arrive at their captaincy decision. And i don't think there is ever a fixed rule in terms of how you arrive at the captaincy decision.

              For me generally, i look at the highlights, confirm my eye-test with some stats, check opposition defensive form (eye-test + stats) and that generally helps me make up my mind. One thing i've seen people not consider is the pedigree of a player. You can go fixture-chasing when it comes to captaincy but is that attacker good enough and has the skill-set to hammer home? That plays on my mind too.

              My question is how do you arrive at your captaincy decision? I've seen some varying strategies. Is it:
              - Captains Poll?
              - Effective Ownership?
              - Eye Test
              - Stats
              - Superstition
              - Odds

              Keen on know how you arrive to that decision and what influences your thinking?

              Follow up question here is the upcoming Liverpool DGW. I think i'm just going to spend 20 minutes looking at the highlights of the last 4 Liverpool games to decide who to give it to between Salah and Mane. Any nuances or clues one can look for here?

              1. Camzy
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                EO and captain's poll should not figure in. Your goal should be to pick the highest scoring player. There's just far too much emphasis on ownership and damage control around here. Focus on getting the most points instead of following the herd.

                I pick players with pedigree and form then fixture. I have not captained a player cheaper than Vardy this season as a result and usually just go with a core of proven players and pick the one that is in the best form/fixture mix.

                1. Lateriser 12
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  I'm with you on this fully. Think we have similar thinking. Lots of talk about captaining the likes of Maupay but do Brighton score as much as the other teams?

              2. Miguel Sanchez
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                So who you going next GW? I am moving more towards opposition defensive stats.

                1. Lateriser 12
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  Sergio. Has to be.

              3. Dannywaz
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 8 days ago

                Question lateriser what's your opinions on my team
                Guaita McGovern
                Cathcart soy lunds taa tomori
                Mahrez kdb salah madders donks
                Tammy vardy rash
                0 itb 1 ft
                I'm wanting mane for 24 genuinely thinking of losing kdb to do this thoughts please ??

              4. Lateriser 12
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                Anyone have a strong subjective opinion on why Salah or Mane is better?

                1. ritzyd
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  I personally think Salah is the better player, has pens without milner and has better stats too. If i could only have one i would choose salah every time.

              5. ritzyd
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                Pedigree, fixture and Defensive stats of opponents for the last 4 gameweeks is one of my biggest factors when choosing a captain. Prime example was last gameweek when deciding between Vardy and KDB whom imo had the best fixtures - villa sat top of chances conceded and big chances conceded (19 i think) over the past 4, southampton were second bottom with the joint least conceded big chances (only 4 if memory serves me right) so made the decision to captain a city player easy for me - just a shame i only had KDB!

                1. Lateriser 12
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  ya i think you have it right

              6. Holmes (specialist in failu…
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                Dont like to overthink on captaincy, I consider two factors only:

                A) Home game
                B) Easy game

                Not sure which stats would give an indication of poor/good defense and poor/good attack since difficulty of fixtures as well as quality of players has to be considered.

                I'm trying to watch more games recently (around 10 GWs or so) but that is mostly to scout players for my transfers rather than captaincy.

                Unfortunately I didnt watch Salah play and just got him in, looking at his last 2-3 performance I'm regretting the move already. Not worth 12m for sure.

                1. Lateriser 12
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  he doesnt look like the salah of old but just still gets so many shots in

              7. Lord - Blaming it on Rio
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                I'll take any information I can get. we're all looking for who will score the most points, but when we're rolling the dice I think it is also important to have a sense of the risk/reward balance. I do; however, put a premium on the eye test, and the best way of all is watching matches live (although I also enjoy the occasional reports from FPL Managers attending games).

                The armband decision in GW24 for those with Salah and Mane does, in my humble opinion, come down to attitude to risk. I will watch both closely this weekend but I'm not expecting to see a definitive form indicator to separate them. And in the absence of that I will either gamble by going for Salah's lower ownership, or play safe with Mane.

                1. Lateriser 12
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  So you're basing the decision on risk appetite if nothing comes out?

                  1. Lord - Blaming it on Rio
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 5 Years
                    1 month, 8 days ago

                    Pretty much. Although I am also scarred by not having Mane for most of this season, so superstition also comes into it.

              8. Warby84
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                I generally go for the fixture and eye test, Vardy in midweek vs Villa had chances and with Maddison back I was confident.. I am still so tempted by Salah this week vs Utd but I still think Vardy is due vs that dreadful Burnley defense..

                Salah VS Mane? for me it’s Salah, watch the Sheff U highlights back again and this should sway you, thanks to my keeper (sigh) he only got 6pts

              9. SADIO SANÉ
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                if City or Liverpool are at home it will be one of them (Salah/Mane/KDB), if they are both away it may be Vardy/someone playing a turd team at home.

                DGW will obv be Salah/Mane (yes I know both are away). Watching highlights of those two is completely pointless imo, it will come down to pot luck getting the 'right' one (unless one looks injured or something the game before)

                1. SADIO SANÉ
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  people convincing themselves they can 'tell' which one is better in any given gameweek amuses me. Not much different to getting a coin toss right and then telling everyone you knew it was going to happen, no you didn't.

                  1. ktk_interista
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    1 month, 8 days ago

                    I think Mane has edged Salah as Liverpool's main man over 2019. This cannot be debated and the number of goals scored reflect that. During that time, we have seen Mane played much more centrally than Salah who occupied the right wing.

                    But from watching the matches recently, I have noticed that since the festive period which concided with Salah shaking off the ankle injury (ie starting the Bournemouth match), Salah has been playing more centrally. Mane has a free role and he has a more creative role than scoring role. Salah in this central position has been devastating in FPL and we have seen that before last year (coincidentally during the same period of the season). I remember 3 double digit hauls in a row starting with the Bournemouth hattrick. Based on recent tactics, I think Salah is the more explosive option especially with guaranteed penalties with Milner out. Mane remains more reliable though as he is assisting a lot as well as scoring.

                2. Lateriser 12
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  i disagree. there's been a visible trend for both in terms of when one has been outperforming the other.

                    1. Lateriser 12
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 8 Years
                      1 month, 8 days ago

                      i'll admit there isn't a strong trend either way at the moment though.

                  1. Warby84
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 8 days ago

                    Salah was obviously struggling with an ankle injury for few weeks, but when fully fit he seems more dangerous and involved when both on the pitch, I personally have both and think they they compliment each other very well.. But I still think Salah is the best C option for GW24 and also got a brace at molineaux last year which always comes into my mind..

                  2. ktk_interista
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    1 month, 8 days ago

                    Look my reply above. I think Klopp's tactical changes in the positions of Salah and Mane is the main factor.

              10. Zladan
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                I’d argue most only go on pedigree of a player and pick a team which they perceive to be poor (whether they are or not stat wise).

                I always take EO into consideration - it’s why I picked KDB over Dilva, even though I thought Dilva return would mean a return of KDeepB.

                I also look to see who has the biggest mismatch in fixture - it’s why I avoided Vardy, because Rashford and KDB both had way easier games.

                I looked to see who plays at home (more often that not I pick a home fixture captain).

                I then look at form of the player. I believe fixtures can inspire form, but they can only help so much - eg Callum Wilson hasn’t had a shot on target since October or something, yet he’s a player with pedigree for explosive gameweeks and also has (and has had) a seemingly endless run of great fixtures.

                If it’s also a 50/50 between a striker and midfielder, I go Midfielder, just in case of a blank I might get a CS.. and 6 points look so so much better than 4.

                1. Lateriser 12
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  Nice set of rules there.

              11. Goat
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                -previous encounter. As Rashford had a goal assist and missed penalty against Norwich earlier in the season that is why I decided to captain him over Vardy last weekend. Especially with Southamptons improved defence it made the decision easier

                1. Klein
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  Question though. Lei had 9-0 sou on previous game. Why didnt you go lei(c)?

                  1. Goat
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 8 days ago

                    Man sent off after 13 mins in that game

                  2. The Bad Seed
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 8 days ago

                    Question back:

                    What were SOTON's scores after the 9-0? How many did they concede?
                    How long ago was that?
                    Do you know how many formation changes happened since then?

                    In a nutshell - the 9-0 has nothing to do with their form now, except being the trigger that woke them up.

              12. Make America Greta Again
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                I put captaincy on great players (Kdb or Mo) with a good fixture (blue on ticker). Learned my lesson from Andy Carroll TC!

                1. Warby84
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  Sane TC and Duffy last year!

                  1. Make America Greta Again
                    • 6 Years
                    1 month, 8 days ago

                    I'm still traumatised by TC Duffy and doubling at the back.

                    1. Bouncebackability
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 10 Years
                      1 month, 8 days ago

                      I still think Duffy captain that week was worth the gamble, it just didn’t work out. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

              13. bench boost for every gamew…
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                I try to play it on someone in form, on a team that is in form, also look at opponents, and often try to picture for myself how the game will go. I tend to do well in many matches but not in captain choices, for example i went Mané last time out because i have seen a clear weakness on Spurs right hand side and i figured that this could be something he would exploit. But then Mou put a spanner in the works by playing effectively 2 rb´s so i was undone by Mou. I felt i wasright about Vardy, and when you watch City vs Villa, KDB has something like two passes that could be goals, i know he is good but i also captained him when he blanked and in those he was far more prolific. Maybe i am overthinking it-)

                Sometimes, like this week i put my armband on Salah just because i have missed so many lately with him or Mané, so that is superstition, just hope that Liverpool are angry for that points loss and the tactical de-manouvre earlier this season and will turn on the heat this time. Mctominay will be a huge miss for United in this game i feel.

                If i had balls i would cap Ings

              14. Warby84
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                Do you look at set piece potential? Such as Vardy/Salah (Pens) De Bruyne (Set pieces) or does this have no effect on your week to week C?

              15. Hy liverpool
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                1. Gut feeling
                2. Eye test
                3. Records / Stats

                Home/Away games, opposition and player's form matters def.

              16. DantheManinaPan
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                If there's a week when I can't decide, I will often turn to points prediction models, such as fplreview and the members projections here.

                I don't believe these are a definitive way to choose a captain, but if I can't decide between Mane and Salah in GW24 for example, all of these models are predicting Salah to slightly outscore Mane, and I trust the maths more than I trust my gut.

              17. GARY AND JAMIE
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                Well Ive capped Jimenez for the last two based on nailedness for the first one and for the second a home game versus a Newcastle team having to constantly change with injuries that was leaking goals. I also went with it based in his very consistent returns.

                2 blanks and a 180k rank drop.

                Getting a good rank over 38 games is done making good decisions but hitting the captain each time needs a lot of luck imo

              18. Long ago I drew a walrus
                • 9 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                Any comments saying pick the highest scoring player are completely missing the point - we're only having this conversation because nobody knows who's going to be the highest scoring player any given week. It's because of this that EO and risk management matters, which in turn has created such concepts as sword/shield picks. I objectively don't know whether Vardy or someone else, e.g. Ings, would score higher, but in the case where Vardy hauls and I captained Ings, a huge proportion of players are going to get those points whereas in the opposite scenario not that many people captained Ings so the damage is minimised. It's simple game theory.

                As such, there are actually two questions being asked here - 1) how do you pick your captain, and 2) what influences your thoughts on who will score highest. This is why last GW many, many people wouldn't have brought in Aguero and captained him as the author of this HT did, because even though he was capable of a huge haul he was also capable of a brief cameo or even a wasteful session whilst others hauled, as in the 8-0 vs Watford. For 11.8 million in a valuable forward slot, wasn't worth the risk for many.

                Many people come onto this site for advice and I think it's not helpful to always be telling people to be making their own decisions - a person armed with experience, knowledge and statistics is going to make better decisions that someone who hasn't been watching football and knows diddly squat about underlying stats, objectively. People follow the herd or follow key figures in the community because they feel their opinions are worth more. Eventually they will get to a point where they can make their own decisions and feel good about them, but that comes with time and experience.

                Having said that, I think it's so important to stick with a gut feeling if you really believe in it. I have a theory that the player ranked 3rd in the captain poll on FFS is the best captain option each week - I've been tallying this since the beginning of the season and the 3rd ranked player has scored 183 points total, vs 116 for the player ranked 1st and 107 for the player ranked 2nd. In addition, the 3rd ranked player has been the highest or joint highest points scorer of the top 3 in 14 out of 22 GWs so far and, crucially, has only blanked in 3 GWs out of 22. I sold Rashford last week, even though he was in this golden position - because I thought this theory was bullsh*t, because others told me it was rubbish, because as a data scientist for a living I've had it drummed into me that correlation doesn't imply causation. I now feel so bad, not just because I lost out of Rashford's points in a vacuum, or because I got my lowest ever GW rank, but because I had this plan and chickened out of it to go for a more 'logical' option of bringing Mane in. It sucks and the game wasn't fun any more. For the rest of this season I'm going to go with my gut simply because it's important to get that enjoyment back.

                1. Lateriser 12
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 7 days ago

                  Top post. The 3rd highest poll scorer is damn.

                  1. Long ago I drew a walrus
                    • 9 Years
                    1 month, 7 days ago

                    Thanks. It's Aguero so far this week - I don't have him, hope he treats you well

                  2. Long ago I drew a walrus
                    • 9 Years
                    1 month, 4 days ago

                    @Lateriser 12, turns out he treated you very well indeed :] did you captain?

              19. Bare Foot United
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                1 month, 8 days ago

                Supperstition , since I start captaining the last playing Team , I had greed arrows

                1. Bare Foot United
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  Green * 😀

              20. jia you jia you
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                Eye test
                Nice Home Fixture
                Lucky Dip
                Wife

              21. The Bad Seed
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                BEST ANSWER:

                1) go to: https://fantasy.premierleague.com/my-team
                2) Press on any player - preferably a bottom 6 defender
                3) Press "Make Captain"
                4) scroll down, right before your team, press "Save your team"

              22. Kopkloppers
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 7 days ago

                Try pin the tail to the donkey!
                I so wish captains were taken out of the game. Too much luck

              23. Kuro-o
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 7 days ago

                I like whom with fluent double-digit hauls,
                if both are equal, then picks one that has better fixture (more Home double-digit hauls or more Away double-digit hauls)

                ex. Vardy , Mané , KDB etc.

              24. RedLightning - The Last Ten…
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • Has Moderation Rights
                • 9 Years
                1 month, 7 days ago

                I look back at my captain successes and failures.
                This season my results have been:
                Vardy captained 8 times (120 points, average 15.0)
                Salah 3 times (52 points, average 17.3)
                Sterling 3 times (34 points, average 11.3)
                De Bruyne 3 times (20 points, average 6.7)
                Abraham twice (8 points, average 4.0)
                Mane once (22 points, average 22)
                Aguero once (4 points, average 4)
                Alli once (2 points, average 2)

                My captains have done far better since I stopped captaining the likes of Abraham and Alli and made Vardy almost a perma-captain.

              25. Duffy Dunk
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 7 days ago

                Actually.. everything has to be considered!
                Form, team & individual, is the most important for me. Even the easiest fixture on paper can be wasted if there is no form.
                Then come factors like the captaincy candidates' fixtures, opponents' form, fixture congestion & importance compared to the targeted fixture.
                Watching the games or at least some highlights is very important too. That's where we can see the player's importance for his team, his will to be involved in productive play, his good-for-FPL selfishness.
                A thing that puts me off is rotation risk, so that has to be taken into account when thinking of captaining assets from often unpredictable teams like Man City.

              26. WesMantooth
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                1 month, 7 days ago

                1: Look at my team and fix.
                2: Does anyone non-lfc/mci have a standout plum fix?
                3: If its down to a city or pool player: consider fixture, rotation and form (in that order) and pick the one who comes out on top.

              27. Syd.
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 7 days ago

                Paul the Octopus

              28. Firminoooo
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 7 days ago

                I will just captain who ever you captain. Didn’t have the balls to captain Aguero last GW, played it safe with KdB. This GW i will captain Aguero and TC Salah in DGW.

              29. FanDoc
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 7 days ago

                A mix of all except superstition. Tbh, don't think much about it since lately I have had 4-5 of the top captain options so tend to go with the top pick or second highest pick. If I guess wrong, at least I get half of the points from the ones I did not captain.

                Of course picking a captain vs Villa atm is not a bad way to go. Too bad I don't have anyone playing vs Villa this GW, if I did, l would not be afraid to captain them.

              30. baps sniffer
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 7 days ago

                I use usually bookie's odd and try to calculate expected pts. There are naturally a lot of factors to consider, certainty of start, pitch time and position for example. Assist and especially bp potential is not easy to calculate. Sometimes when the difference is marginal I trust my gut feeling based on eye test.

                Salah has passed the eye test for me lately and has been much better after his ankle issue and more central position. So atm I cannot TC Mane over him.

              31. Dybala10
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 6 days ago

                All I know is since I've become a member here I'm far more risk averse than before.

                Before I looked at either the fixture or form and based it purely on the eye test. Now with group think, articles, polls, stats etc etc it causes overthinking and generally a safe pick on my behalf.

            6. fakelund
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 8 days ago

              Rashford to Ings? Worth doing?

              1. Zladan
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                Yes. Ings rising.

              2. Kevin de Blanke
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                Anyone to Ings would be a yes fro me

                Ings stats are even way better than Kuns....

              3. Duffy Dunk
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 7 days ago

                I'd keep Rashford. BUR(h) in gw24.