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Value Players 2020/21

25 August 2020 59 comments
Hedge Hedge
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Following my previous articles on value (parts one, two, three, four) I have taken a look at the prices for the 2020/21 season and looked at the value of players new prices based on last season’s score.

Method & Limitations

The approach I’m using is to take a base team of 11 of the cheapest possible players, then make upgrades to that team that offered the best value (points per million) until the team value was at £100m. You can read the full approach and some thoughts on its limitations in the previous article.

Additionally, this forward-looking approach presumes players score the same as last year, which you may or may not think will be true for each player. I have tried to address this for some common cases (e.g. January signings) however the skill of the game is in knowing which players will perform better and worse than history suggests.

First Run

The first run-through came out with some interesting options, with 5-2-3 formation coming out on top:

GK: Pope | £5.5m
DEF: Robertson | £7.0m
DEF: Alexander-Arnold | £7.5m
DEF: Doherty | £6.0m
DEF: van Dijk | £6.5m
DEF: Tarkowski | £5.5m
MID: Lundstram | £5.5m
MID: De Bruyne | £11.5m
FWD: Ings | £8.5m
FWD: Martial | £9.0m
FWD: Vardy | £10.0m

Clearly there are some issues here with positional changes. If Martial and Lundstram perform the same as last season they will get fewer points due to their changes. Equally, there will be others who perform better because of reclassification.

Adjust for Position

Next, I did a run-through with the scores amended for each player that has changed position to calculate what they would have got last year in that position (with a rough estimate for bonus point changes included).

This also came out with 5-2-3 as the strongest formation with:

GK: Pope | £5.5m
DEF: Robertson | £7.0m
DEF: Alexander-Arnold | £7.5m
DEF: Doherty | £6.0m
DEF: van Dijk | £6.5m
DEF: Tarkowski | £5.5m
MID: Rashford | £9.5m
MID: De Bruyne | £11.5m
FWD: Ings | £8.5m
FWD: Wood | £6.5m
FWD: Jimenez | £8.5m

Project Restart

The final adjustment was to bring into the mix those players that had only really come out in the latter half of the season. I took the players that did well after Project Restart and multiplied out their points from that period to a whole season.

Some of the key players who came into their own after the restart, and their scores if they could keep it up for a whole season were:

Fernandes: 337 points
Greenwood: 241 points (as a midfielder)
Foden: 211 points
Lloris: 198 points
Laporte: 173 points
Soucek: 148 points

This limitation here is that Project Restart only covered nine games and so fixture difficulty and whole-season sustainability would probably render some of these prices unrealistic.

This is where it gets less scientific. I adjusted a few of the scores from the ‘project restart’ section to be more conservatively realistic.

Fernandes could continue his hot streak, but even if he drops off a bit, I’d still expect him to hit 200 points this season. Greenwood and Foden I would both expect around the 175-180 mark if they continue to get decent minutes, and Lloris I have downgraded to around his consistent total for the past few seasons (we could expect this to go up under Mourinho, but with Pope at the same price it doesn’t make any difference to the team structure).

Fernandes: 200 points
Greenwood: 180 points (as a midfielder)
Foden: 175 points
Lloris: 145 points
Laporte: 173 points
Soucek: 148 points

Laporte totalled 177 points the season before last, so that seems reasonable. Whether Soucek can keep up his form and get near 150 remains to be seen, but usually there is a £5-6m midfielder that gets in that range, so I will leave him at that.

With those changes, and we get another five at the back with 5-3-2:

GK: Pope | £5.5m
DEF: Robertson | £7.0m
DEF: Alexander-Arnold | £7.5m
DEF: Doherty | £6.0m
DEF: van Dijk | £6.5m
DEF: Laporte | £6.0m
MID: Foden | £6.5m
MID: De Bruyne | £11.5m
MID: Greenwood | £7.5m
FWD: Ings | £8.5m
FWD: Vardy | £10.0m

Five at the Back?

As you will see from my previous article, five at the back seems to look good going into the season due to the fact that we aren’t calculating for the £5-6m attacker that hits the 170-180 mark, and the £8-10m attacker that hits the 200 mark.

This year, however, we have Ings and Vardy, both in the £8-10m and at (or nearly at) the 200 point mark (this is interesting in itself – I don’t think we’ve had a player hitting 200 points one season and being priced under £10m in recent history).

What I thought would be interesting was to add in £5.5m midfielder at 175 points to simulate the usual, but as yet unknown, budget overperformer.

This returns a 4-3-3 as the optimal formation, with 3-4-3 just one point off:

GK: Pope | £5.5m
DEF: Robertson | £7.0m
DEF: Alexander-Arnold | £7.5m
DEF: van Dijk | £6.5m
DEF: Laporte | £6.0m
MID: Foden | £6.5m
MID: De Bruyne | £11.5m
MID: Unknown | £5.5m
FWD: Jimenez | £8.5m
FWD: Ings | £8.5m
FWD: Vardy | £10.0m

Or

GK: Pope | £5.5m
DEF: Alexander-Arnold | £7.5m
DEF: van Dijk | £6.5m
DEF: Laporte | £6.0m
MID: Greenwood | £7.5m
MID: Foden | £6.5m
MID: De Bruyne | £11.5m
MID: Unknown | £5.5m
FWD: Jimenez | £8.5m
FWD: Ings | £8.5m
FWD: Vardy | £10.0m

Rotating 4.5m Defenders

My last article on rotating pairs of £4.5m defenders shows that, if you can find a good pair that rotate avoiding Man City/Liverpool and, ideally, the top 8 teams, then you can displace some of the premiums for value.

So, out of interest, I have added in a rotating pair of £4.5ms to the equation with a (conservative) projected score of 170. That returned a 4-4-2 with:

GK: Pope | £5.5m
DEF: Alexander-Arnold | £7.5m
DEF: van Dijk | £6.5m
DEF: Laporte | £6.0m
DEF: Rotating £4.5ms | £5.0m
MID: Salah | £12.0m
MID: Foden | £6.5m
MID: De Bruyne | £11.5m
MID: Unknown | £5.5m
FWD: Jimenez | £8.5m
FWD: Ings | £8.5m

Players

Forwards

What stands out to me this year, is the change in pricing for forwards. With the issues in the past 3-4 seasons with premium forwards not providing good value, the change to have none priced over £10.5m looks like a good one to mix things up a bit. That shows with three up top looking good value, even without cheap over-performers to free up budget.

Jimenez (£8.5m) has shown consistency for two seasons now and £8.5m for a player that is highly likely to finish with 180-200 points is a no-brainer for me. It remains to be seen if Ings (£8.5m) can repeat is tally from last year, but we have seen flashes of that form in previous seasons, just interrupted by injury. Vardy (£10.0m) too could prove great value with a decent chance of another 200 pointer this season.

Budget forward don’t look very appealing for value. Wood (£6.5m) or Antonio (£6.5m) are perhaps the most likely source of value, possibly a promoted striker might emerge, but at the start, I wouldn’t be confident in cheap strikers providing value.

Midfielders

Lots of the early talk has been about saving funds up front and in defence to make room for lots of premium mids, but I’m sceptical of the value of the £12.0m players when we have so many options slightly cheaper that could provide better value.

De Bruyne (£11.5m) looks the standout premium for value if he can hit at least 225 points this year. Fernandes (£10.5m) is an interesting one – if he can match 60% of his PPG from project restart then he will hit 200 points, and at £1.5m less than Salah/Mane/Aubameyang, he could also end up as a must-own. There is always the chance that Salah (£12.0m) returns to a 260-300 kind of score, which would make him a value pick even at £12m, so I would plan for a way to bring him in if you’re not starting with him.

At the mid-priced range in midfield, Greenwood (£7.5m) could be absolutely essential if he retains first choice this season. Rashford (£9.5m) is also worth considering, if he replicates his form last year and hits 200 points he looks good value. I will also be keeping tabs on the likes of Mahrez (£8.5m), Pulisic (£8.5m), Ziyech (£8.0m) and Grealish (£7.0m) to see if they look like kicking on towards to 200 mark.

At the budget end there is likely to be a £5-6m option that comes in at 180 points for the season again. Possibly one of the Leeds creative midfielders could fit this mould if they get a more clinical striker or maybe one of the West Ham midfielders like Soucek (£5.0m) and Yarmolenko (£6.0m). Stretching the bracket up to £6.5m brings in a lot more options who could be interesting (Perez, Foden, Anderson, Traore, Jota).

Defenders

Once again, premium defenders look really good value for money, though I will try a rotating pair of £4.5m this year after my research in my previous article. I don’t think there is enough value or predictability to rotate two spots with 4.5m pairs.

Vinagre (£4.5m) could be an interesting one until Jonny returns, if he can add a few attacking returns to a decent clean sheet potential then he could end up matching some of the premium options without rotation.

Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) is surely the first name on the team sheet, and I think van Dijk (£6.5m) will be worth it over Robertson (£7.0m) unless Robertson’s assist start picking up to 2018/19 levels again. Laporte (£6.0m) could offer great value, but with the deployment of Ake (£5.5m) in that defence still up in the air, he may be a wait-and-see. Doherty (£6.0m) is probably a good bet, with a couple of extra clean sheets with Boly fit all season maybe pushing him to nearer 175 points.

Conclusion

My instinct is that, despite the wealth on premium midfield options, this will be the year of spreading the budget widely to as many mid-priced options as possible. I think the £7.5m – 10m range this year will offer outstanding value and stocking up on these rather than cramming in 12m options could be the way to go.

The blanks for Man Utd and Man City make things tricky to start the season and this may push me towards Salah and Aubameyang to start with. I will, however, be planning to move these towards the likes of De Bruyne and Fernandes early on and upgrade and cheap attacker to a mid-priced one.

Once the Manchester blanks are over, I can see a huge amount of value in those club’s midfielders. Deploying Fernandes, Rashford, Greenwood, De Bruyne and Foden as a midfield five could be tasty, particularly for an early double gameweek

 

59 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Rotation's Alter Ego
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Cheers Hedge, excellent as always.

    I know defenders will always come out well on these value comparisons, and it's always predictable which defenders will finish top, but why do big at the back teams never do well?

    Is it because the 1.5/2 odd mil upgrade moving a 4.5m defender to a 6/6.5m defender is better spent upgrading a 5.5 to a 7/7.5? That's always been what I've assumed, but this suggests that isn't the case.

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    1. Ser Davos
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I think you need tantric patience for it and last year Digne/Coleman were poor, Alisson got injured, Laporte got injured and Boly got injured.

      Otherwise, those premiums would have fared much better as many us anticipated.

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    2. Pompel
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I think your assumption about defenders historically has been correct, but based on last season, the value was clearly with defenders.
      And then there's captaincuy ofc, which means you'd like a big hitters or two. And one would like to cover the mid-price points in midfield and attack, to jump on in-form players ahead of good fixtures.

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      1. Ser Davos
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        I think the classic way of playing has always been to focus on loading up on the premiums:

        (last season)
        Salah - Sterling - KDB
        Vardy

        So you're covered whether you captain them or not, but I think by rotating the premiums with transfers AND having a set and forget premium/value backline then you get the best of both worlds

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      2. Hedge
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Also worth noting that a really high scoring premium (KDB last year, Salah previous two years) are value picks in themselves, despite the high price. I don't think you need more than one super premium attacker for captaincy generally

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    3. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I think the biggest factor for success is owning the right low/mid price midfield and forward assets at the right time, and getting that right is a tricky skill. I think if you could do that well and combine it with big at the back you could fly up the ranks.

      This season am planning to do 2-3 premium defenders and a rotating £4.5m pair. Remains to be seen whether my selections of players further up the pitch can propel me to a decent rank!

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      1. Andy_Social
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        That's effectively what a combination of your's and Latreriser's articles today point to. It's what I've implemented.

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  2. diesel001
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Another quality article from Hedge.

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    1. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Re Rotation:

      CPL / NEW is interesting for the first half of the season:

      SOU, BHA, EVE, BUR, BHA, ful, EVE, LEE, bur, NEW, avl, WBA, lee, FUL, avl, LEI*, SHU, shu

      Otherwise best I could manage was:

      1) Start with CPL / NEW defenders
      2) GW6 switch NEW to AVL defender
      3) GW12 switch CPL to NEW defender
      4) GW15 switch AVL to BUR defender

      First 17 GWs will give you:

      SOU, BHA, EVE, BUR, BHA, LEE, SOU, LEE, BHA, NEW, NEW, WBA, BUR, FUL, CPL, SHU, FUL

      Meets the criteria of avoiding the Top 8 and having home fixtures. Very little transfer cost

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      1. Hedge
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        I quite like BUR/NEW rotation. Not quite as good a rotation combo, but I think Burnley's increased chance of a clean sheet could work out better

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  3. Andy_Social
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Lateriser AND Hedge. Boy are we being spoiled today!

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    1. jtreble
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Some of Hedge's "value" could be Lateriser's "glue" ...

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      1. Andy_Social
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        It does. All the smart boys are making me feel ever-more sure of my set-n-forget super-heavy defence although it will prevent me from that 5-Mancs-across the middle scenario.

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    2. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Honoured to be put in the same bracket! Lateriser is better at picking the actual players too so can convert a good strategy into an enviable OR history

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      1. Andy_Social
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Your main input into the synthesis of both articles is that captaincy options are largely going to come from Manc midfielders, principally KDB and Bruno - and so there is no urgency to own a Liverpool midfielder. Therefore, I am confident in tripling up on Liverpool at the back. After those 3 set-n-forget assets, spending 8-5 to 9m on 2 more defenders and largely leaving them be seems a good tactic in order to chase Lateriser's Upsides.

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        1. FPL Theorist
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Personally I prefer 2 Liverpool + Doherty as premium defenders to preserve the flexibility to upside chase by bringing in Salah during good fixture runs without spending an extra transfer on defence.

          Interestingly, Man City and Liverpool both wound up with a relatively tough first 1/4 of the season, followed by an easier second 1/4. I feel like this favours owning Bruno over Salah from weeks 2-9, and subsequently sacrificing Utd/Chelsea assets to get Salah in and possibly double up on City attack.

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        2. Hedge
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          As above, I have a slight concern that Salah could get near 275-300 points this season, which means I'm not sold on triple up at the back with Liverpool.... But part of me really wants to do it

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  4. Ser Davos
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Brilliant article, backs up a few of my suspicions

    TAA VVD Doherty
    Salah Auba
    Werner Jiminez

    Fill in the rest with further value

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    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Yeh like those picks, can't quite fit Werner in at the moment

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      1. FPL Theorist
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        I've fit him in, but I have to go with just two premium defenders at the start. Then over a period of 3 weeks I can hopefully go Salah Auba 4.5 -> Bruno KDB VVD.

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    2. Gomolon
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      isnt Jiminez more of a safe/reliable pick, rather than an upside chasing pick?

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      1. Gomolon
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        oops sorry thought this was on laterisers article lol

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  5. jtreble
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Terrific stuff Hedge (as always). The other big theme for this season, imho, is going to be the emergence of CHE attack "value" assets. GL with your 20/21.

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    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Yes I think you're right. Hard to pick one from the start. New boys are somewhat unknown as to how they will hot the ground, Pulisic potentially won't start the season, question marks over pitch time for mount. One to watch for first few GW for sure

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  6. Nuka Girl
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    The article gives similar teams to mine.
    I took the the Value(season) statistic and populated my team then made a couple of adjustments when the fixtures came out.
    I have gone more for value strikers and high end defenders than mid-range midfielders.
    This has given me mostly a 4-3-3.
    Doesn't seem a popular formation but I will give it go for the start.
    I have a rotation that brings me to 3-4-3 and will switch to that fully when I have built up more funds later.

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    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Yeh, have experimented with a few 4-3-3 drafts so far. I think there may be more value in midfield at the moment so gravitating towards 4-4-2 currently

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    2. Flair
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Which strikers are you going for? Have gone for a 4-3-3 too, interested to see how another player is playing his

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      1. Nuka Girl
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        The Value stats pointed to Ings, Jiminez and Ayew. Vardy was a close 4th.
        I decided to swap Ayew for Mitrovic as he scored more than Ayew when last in Premier and seem to recall he started well.

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  7. thericeking
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Love it. Great work

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    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Cheers

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  8. FPL Theorist
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Great work, Hedge!

    I calculated that your final 4-4-2 team with the rotating defenders can hit 2554 points as set-and-forget if your players meet reasonable targets of 30 points per million for defenders and goalkeepers and 23 points per million for midfielders and forwards (aside from the spectacular emerging 5.5 MID).

    Pope: 165 pts
    TAA: 225
    VVD: 195
    Laporte: 180
    Rotating defenders: 170 (maintaining your estimate)
    Salah (perma-captain): 567 including 15 for TC
    KDB: 265
    Foden: 150
    unknown MID: 175 (based on assumption that someone really good emerges)
    Ings: 196
    Jimenez: 196
    Auto-sub estimated points: 50
    Bench boost points: 20

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    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Enough for 2nd place last year! Of course every season is different, and finding that budget overperformer is no easy feet, plenty of false dawns (e.g. Pukki)

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  9. The Overthinker
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    // Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) is surely the first name on the team sheet//

    Not in my team

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    1. Goonsquad245
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Username checks out

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      1. The Overthinker
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        You gotta stand by it

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    2. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      £7.5m player, highly likely to hit 200+ points, surely not including him is overthinking 😉

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      1. The Overthinker
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Bringing him in makes my team imbalance.

        I am not saying he is not worth it, he definitely is, but I am 98% sure of not going with him.

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        1. MikeBravo
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Another good one Hedge. Very similar to my drafts. Glad you didn't put a name to the 5.5 mid, keeping it under your hat, I like it! You and I know it's ________...

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          1. Hedge
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            Haha, yep got to keep an edge *looks round shiftily*

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    3. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I went without him for a lot of last year and covered the points of with the extra £ during that period without a problem although Adrian was in goal. Not saying it was fun watching him but you can not own Trent and do well, Look at your team with and without him and compare the differences I guess

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  10. Baines on Toast...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Did you adjust Auba's scores based on if he were a midfielder last year?

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    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Yep, I adjust all the position changers that got over 100 points

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  11. jtreble
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Hedge, did you ever look at the "value" math in rotating goalkeepers (e.g., McCarthy and Ryan this season)? Curious.

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    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Nope, on my to-do list, however I believe mathematically safe showed that keepers are less effected by fixtures due to save points vs clean sheets. Will do a proper look at some point though

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      1. jtreble
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        OK, thanks for your reply.

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  12. GREEN IS GOOD
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Excellent article, thanks

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    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      No problem, cheers

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  13. Two Popes and a Gazza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Great analysis like the previous articles in the thread. I started last season with Trent and Van Dijk (though it was a disappointing start) and after reading your first two articles brought in Van Dijk again - allows me to switch to Laporte once Man City start rolling and the Ake sized question mark is settled.

    If you are taking requests, for your next simulation (i.e. if you are planning on it) I would love to see if you could incorporate a few more things to your analysis?
    1) Model the captaincy choice of rotating premiums at home - pick the two captains that give the most value when doubled (ideally from a rotating pair of teams like the 4.5 defenders - I know this essentially means calculating a home and away value)?
    2) Enter the new Chelsea transfers into your analysis by assigning points based on their last season performance (and then another one with a 20% or 30% penalty as an adjustment cost).

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    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      On the first one, I was thinking of doing a comparison of heavy hitters against different opposition, however Lateriser has covered that in his previous article. He uses goal involvement instead of points, but I wouldn't have thought it would show much difference in results.

      For the second, I'd have to find data for other leagues to work out what their points would be. You can, however, work out whether you think they are value. With Ings (8.5), Jimenez (8.5) and Vardy (10.5) at 194, 198 and 210 respectively, you can see that Werner would need over 200 to be worth the trade. Whether you think he can do that is down to your judgement.

      Similarly with Greenwood (7.5) potentially around 180 and Rashford (9.0) around 200, the likes of Ziyech (8.0) need to get in the 190 sort of range.

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  14. Birds of Prey
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Take Davies or Dier?

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  15. BeardedOldMan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Very interesting article, thanks.

    I feel like targeting 100m for 11 players isn’t realistic though - what happens when you run the method to fill an entire FPL squad for the budget, perhaps with minimum price bench fodder?

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    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      It's run calculated with bench fodder, so each formation has a different budget for the 11 based on what the cheapest bench costs in that formation

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      1. BeardedOldMan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Righto thanks, I see that now!

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  16. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Great article - love this series

    Tbf an “FPL By Numbers” team would probably have a core of something like:

    McCarthy
    TAA, VVD, Doherty
    KDB, Bruno, Salah

    Whichever other 4 outfielders you throw in there, that team should surely still be at the business end of things & wouldn’t need many FTs to maintain it

    If you go down the route of say Laporte and/or Robbo to accompany them he you’re talking even less FTs needed

    But the Salah value/regression/progression conundrum is definitely interesting - KDB & Bruno look to offer very similar levels in terms of points, just for less budget which then begs the question do you go without Mo and have an extra 3.0-5.0 to spread around those other 4-5 positions etc

    It’s sometimes a headscratcher from some perspectives

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    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Yes, agree it's a tough call this season. KDB, Fernandes and Salah at the same points tally makes it an easy call, but we know Salah *could* be capable of a massive score (270+) and Fernandes *could* regress if penalties reduce. I think the heavy hitters are harder to call this year than recent history.

      I'm leaning towards only having one premium and spreading the funds to lots of more predictable 8-10m options at the moment. No doubt that will change 10 times before the start of the season

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      1. jimmyskyblue
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Hedge, given your excellent research into value this interests me.

        Did you factor in captaincy points? I think many will be alternating captaincy between KDB and Salah most weeks. I’m wondering how you’d justify not having both in your team.

        Open Controls
  17. SmasherLagru
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Dallas or Ayling ,who's more of a threat

    Open Controls
  18. The Minus Fours
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Dallas more of a threat 100% - Perhaps not in GW1 (Liverpool away) or GW4 though (Man City Home) LOL

    Open Controls
    1. SmasherLagru
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Im thinking more long term and rotate with kwp

      Open Controls

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