Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is live for the new season and we’re all still digesting the player price list to see where the best value is.
In this article, we weave last year’s points with this year’s prices for a cursory look at where that value may lie.
POINTS PER MILLION PER GAME
FPL themselves use points per million for their ‘Value (Season)’ metric but we’ll use points per match per million for this study, to level the playing field between the ever-presents and those who may have had injury-riddled campaigns.
Points per million per match (PPMPM) is, it has to be said, a basic route into FPL team value.
We can’t just create a team of FPL assets based on this alone as we’ll inevitably end up with a huge wad of unused cash in the bank, due to the fact that Mohamed Salah (£12.5m), Erling Haaland (£14.0m) et al will struggle to feature prominently in the tables below.
Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) takes this to the next level and is something that has been written about at length by our clued-up community over the years.
We’re also looking solely at last season’s points, not ‘expected’ goals data or anything else. It will all be very different for some players this time around; past points aren’t a reliable gauge of what’s to come.
But ‘PPMPM’ is still a decent starting point for making an at-a-glance comparison of, say, two players of the same position and of similar price: Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) and Callum Wilson (£8.0m), for example.
GOALKEEPERS
| Player | 2023/24 price | 2022/23 points | Points per match | Points per match per million |
| Henderson | 4.5 | 82 | 4.6 | 1.02 |
| Steele | 4.5 | 65 | 4.3 | 0.96 |
| Johnstone | 4.5 | 36 | 4 | 0.89 |
| Raya | 5 | 166 | 4.4 | 0.88 |
| Leno | 4.5 | 142 | 3.9 | 0.87 |
| Guaita | 4.5 | 99 | 3.7 | 0.82 |
| Arrizabalaga | 5 | 118 | 4.1 | 0.82 |
| Sá | 5 | 148 | 4.1 | 0.82 |
| Alisson | 5.5 | 162 | 4.4 | 0.80 |
| Sanchez | 4.5 | 82 | 3.6 | 0.80 |
| Fabianski | 4.5 | 127 | 3.5 | 0.78 |
| Pope | 5.5 | 157 | 4.2 | 0.76 |
| Ramsdale | 5 | 143 | 3.8 | 0.76 |
| Martinez | 5 | 135 | 3.8 | 0.76 |
| Neto | 4.5 | 93 | 3.4 | 0.76 |
| Pickford | 4.5 | 124 | 3.4 | 0.76 |
| Forster | 4 | 40 | 2.9 | 0.73 |
| Lloris | 5 | 89 | 3.6 | 0.72 |
| Ederson | 5.5 | 121 | 3.5 | 0.64 |
Discounting the peripheral assets who made five starts or fewer, Dean Henderson (£4.5m) is the only player in this piece who averages above 1.00 points per match per million (PPMPM).
His points-per-match average of 4.6 was even superior to that of David Raya (£5.0m), two penalty saves from the Nottingham Forest goalkeeper – on loan from Manchester United – inflating his total somewhat.
Henderson is FPL royalty of sorts following a 160-point campaign in 2019/20, a total he would have even bettered at Forest had he scored at the same rate over 38 matches instead of 18.
It’ll be interesting to see where he ends up this summer, with his future at United uncertain.
Raya and Jason Steele (£4.5m) weren’t too adversely affected by £0.5m price rises in the above table, while it’s worth pointing out that Sam Johnstone (£4.5m) only played nine games in 2022/23 and may have regressed over a longer timeframe. Steele himself was a relative latecomer into the Brighton and Hove Albion side after displacing Robert Sanchez (£4.5m) earlier this calendar year.
Ederson (£5.5m), bless him, is unsurprisingly a country mile behind the competition.
DEFENDERS
| Player | 2023/24 price | 2022/23 points | Points per match | Points per match per million |
| Saliba | 5 | 117 | 4.3 | 0.86 |
| Mings | 4.5 | 130 | 3.7 | 0.82 |
| Pinnock | 4.5 | 112 | 3.7 | 0.82 |
| Trippier | 6.5 | 198 | 5.2 | 0.80 |
| Badiashile | 4.5 | 40 | 3.6 | 0.80 |
| Botman | 4.5 | 129 | 3.6 | 0.80 |
| Mee | 5 | 143 | 3.9 | 0.78 |
| Dalot | 5 | 102 | 3.9 | 0.78 |
| Schär | 5 | 139 | 3.9 | 0.78 |
| Porro | 5 | 59 | 3.9 | 0.78 |
| Wan-Bissaka | 4.5 | 67 | 3.5 | 0.78 |
| Zouma | 4.5 | 88 | 3.5 | 0.78 |
| Gabriel | 5 | 146 | 3.8 | 0.76 |
| Alex Moreno | 5 | 72 | 3.8 | 0.76 |
| Burn | 4.5 | 129 | 3.4 | 0.76 |
| Boly | 4.5 | 37 | 3.4 | 0.76 |
| White | 5.5 | 156 | 4.1 | 0.75 |
| Zinchenko | 5 | 99 | 3.7 | 0.74 |
| Estupiñan | 5 | 128 | 3.7 | 0.74 |
| E.Royal | 4.5 | 86 | 3.3 | 0.73 |
| Stones | 5.5 | 93 | 4 | 0.73 |
| Shaw | 5.5 | 124 | 4 | 0.73 |
Being half a million cheaper than team-mate Ben White (£5.5m), William Saliba (£5.0m) will attract a few suitors ahead of Arsenal’s favourable opening fixture run.
He was third in the FPL defenders’ points table when injury cut short his season after Gameweek 27, the French stopper having banked a dozen clean sheets and three attacking returns by that stage.
His ‘value’, based on PPMPM, trumps that of any other player in his Fantasy position.
A lack of a price rise for Tyrone Mings and Ethan Pinnock sees that £4.5m pair complete the podium places, goal threat and clean-sheet potential helping the two centre-halves tick over at 3.7 points per match in 2021/22.
Mings, however, now faces a real threat to his place as Aston Villa close in on Pau Torres.
Kieran Trippier (£6.5m) still fares well despite the £1.5m price rise but team-mate Sven Botman, who surprisingly remained at £4.5m, is level with him for PPMPM.
There’s no Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.0m) in the above table but had he scored at 6.0 points per match (as he did when he moved into his inverted full-back role from Gameweek 30 onwards), he’d have made the cut at 0.75 PPMPM.
MIDFIELDERS
| Player | 2023/24 price | 2022/23 price | Points per match | Points per match per million |
| Tavernier | 5.5 | 94 | 4.1 | 0.75 |
| Bentancur | 5.5 | 71 | 3.9 | 0.71 |
| Almirón | 6.5 | 158 | 4.6 | 0.71 |
| March | 6.5 | 147 | 4.5 | 0.69 |
| Douglas Luiz | 5.5 | 142 | 3.8 | 0.69 |
| Martinelli | 8 | 198 | 5.5 | 0.69 |
| Xhaka | 6 | 153 | 4.1 | 0.68 |
| Andreas | 5.5 | 123 | 3.7 | 0.67 |
| Danilo | 5.5 | 48 | 3.7 | 0.67 |
| Ødegaard | 8.5 | 212 | 5.7 | 0.67 |
| Mac Allister | 6 | 140 | 4 | 0.67 |
| Gross | 6.5 | 159 | 4.3 | 0.66 |
| Rashford | 9 | 205 | 5.9 | 0.66 |
| Jensen | 5.5 | 132 | 3.6 | 0.65 |
| J. Ramsey | 6 | 135 | 3.9 | 0.65 |
| Gibbs-White | 6 | 145 | 3.9 | 0.65 |
| Mitoma | 6.5 | 138 | 4.2 | 0.65 |
| Eze | 6.5 | 159 | 4.2 | 0.65 |
| Billing | 5.5 | 126 | 3.5 | 0.64 |
| Willock | 5.5 | 123 | 3.5 | 0.64 |
| Saka | 8.5 | 202 | 5.3 | 0.62 |
| Højbjerg | 5.5 | 120 | 3.4 | 0.62 |
| Eriksen | 6 | 103 | 3.7 | 0.62 |
Totting up ‘value’ in this way is inevitably going to lead to moment of glory for a few mid-range/budget midfielders, with the unlikely figure of Marcus Tavernier (£5.5m) taking top honours here.
A word of warning: the Bournemouth man’s attacking return count (nine) was double what Opta deemed he should have got (4.50).
Miguel Almiron (£6.5m) and Solly March (£6.5m) still come out of this analysis smelling of roses despite their price hikes, while it’s encouraging to see Marcus Rashford (£9.0m) and the Arsenal trio of Gabriel Martinelli (£8.0m), Martin Odegaard (£8.5m) and Bukayo Saka (£8.5m) feature despite their own recent rises.
Bryan Mbeumo (£6.5m) would have made the above list, level with Rashford, if we work out what he would have scored as a midfielder in 2022/23 (164 points).
FORWARDS
| Player | 2023/24 price | 2022/23 points | Points per match | Points per match per million |
| Toney | 8 | 182 | 5.5 | 0.69 |
| Wilson | 8 | 157 | 5.1 | 0.64 |
| G. Jesus | 8 | 125 | 4.8 | 0.60 |
| Mitrović | 7.5 | 107 | 4.5 | 0.60 |
| Isak | 7.5 | 100 | 4.5 | 0.60 |
| Solanke | 6.5 | 130 | 3.9 | 0.60 |
| Watkins | 8 | 175 | 4.7 | 0.59 |
| Gakpo | 7.5 | 90 | 4.3 | 0.57 |
| Awoniyi | 6.5 | 100 | 3.7 | 0.57 |
| Ferguson | 6 | 65 | 3.4 | 0.57 |
| Haaland | 14 | 272 | 7.8 | 0.56 |
| Kane | 12.5 | 263 | 6.9 | 0.55 |
| Vinícius | 5 | 72 | 2.6 | 0.52 |
| J.Alvarez | 6.5 | 103 | 3.3 | 0.51 |
| Wissa | 6 | 111 | 2.9 | 0.48 |
| Welbeck | 6 | 91 | 2.9 | 0.48 |
| Martial | 6.5 | 66 | 3.1 | 0.48 |
| Ings | 6 | 97 | 2.8 | 0.47 |
| Darwin | 7.5 | 100 | 3.4 | 0.45 |
| Undav | 5.5 | 52 | 2.4 | 0.44 |
| Scamacca | 6 | 41 | 2.6 | 0.43 |
Even price rises for Ivan Toney (£8.0m) and Callum Wilson (£8.0m) couldn’t stop their ascents to the top of the above table.
They finshed third (5.5) and fourth (5.1) for points per match among forwards last season.
Toney won’t be available till January due to suspension, while it remains to be seen how Eddie Howe juggles the workloads of Wilson and Alexander Isak (£7.5m) with UEFA Champions League football on the horizon.
None of us are buying Erling Haaland (£14.0m) for his value, let’s be honest, but he still marginally trumps Harry Kane (£12.5m) for PPMPM regardless.
Looking just at points per million per start (rather than all appearances), Julian Alvarez (£6.5m) would have been top of the pile (0.95).
Among forwards, Alvarez (6.2) trailed only Haaland (8.1) and Kane (6.9) for points per start.
11 months, 2 days agoThanks, Neale. Always interesting looking at these metrics. I always wonder what it'd be like going with an all "value" squad, with maybe, say, Rashford at 9m as the default captain and spreading the funds around. I'm not crazy about Salah/Kane at 12.5, nor Haaland at 14.