FPL captaincy tips from multiple top 10k finishers

Our FPL Masterclass series unites three of the best Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers around: two-time India champion Lateriser, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar and five-time top 1,000 finisher Tom Freeman.

Between them, they have 20 overall ranks in the top 10,000, nine of which were within the top 1k.

They have been providing regular Fantasy advice ahead of the start of 2021/22, with opinions on everything from tips for newcomers to chip strategy.

Our trio of top managers will be writing for Fantasy Football Scout every week throughout the new season – and only subscribers will be able to read all of their articles in full.

• Gameweek 1 essentials
• How many proven players – and how many ‘gambles’ – shall I pick in my FPL squad?
• How important is a strong bench early in the season?
• How important is team value and when are early transfers advisable?
• Tips for a top 10k finish
• Is form or fixtures more important?
• When to take hits and the importance of rolling transfers
• When should I play my first Wildcard and other chips?

You can read all of their previous FPL Masterclass articles via the links above but this time we’ll be asking our panel: how do you approach your captaincy decisions?

ZOPHAR SAID…

Captaincy is the most important decision for an FPL manager every week and I prefer to put my trust in a small group of premium players from the top sides, such as Harry Kane (£12.5m), Mohamed Salah (£12.5m), Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m) etc. These players take penalties for their clubs so they can get on the scoresheet even if they’re having a poor game, while other set-piece duties are an added bonus. 

I look to see which premium asset is playing a team from the bottom six and usually back the player who is playing at home. The Fantasy Football Scout captaincy poll (see the sidebar) is a vital tool for me when making captaincy decisions. If a player is an overwhelming favourite in the poll, I usually captain him without hesitation.

There’s a reason for this. Say Salah away to Norwich is backed by 70% of those who voted, which is a good representation of how many FPL managers will captain the Egyptian that week. If you hand the armband to someone else, say Bruno Fernandes against Leeds, you aren’t just betting on the United midfielder doing well, you are also betting against Salah. If Salah does haul and Bruno blanks, you are going to be behind 70% of players and drop in rank massively. Yes, there is a scenario where Salah fails and Bruno hauls and that could propel you up the rankings, but I find that strategy quite risky in a week where there is an overwhelming favourite. FPL is all about picking your moments. 

However, in weeks where the captaincy poll is split with no clear favourite, I think that is when you can take a punt on your armband pick. In those weeks, you can look to a player from outside the ‘top six’ – and often that’s when you make the biggest rank gains.

LATERISER SAID…

Captaincy is going to be one of the most important, if not the most important, decisions you make week on week. More often than not, I stick to a premium pick playing a side in the bottom 10. There is a lot more to this, though.

I am constantly monitoring the defensive form of teams over the past six to eight Gameweeks. Occasionally a side that is perceived to be defensively poor has tightened up in the last few Gameweeks and sometimes FPL managers are late to see that, due to biased perception – so this leads to opportunities with captaincy. It’s the same with the offensive form of the premium attackers we are picking as captains. It is about objectively reading the match-ups and weighing them carefully.

One of my most successful captaincies was Anthony Martial (£8.0m) in the season I finished 30^th in the world. He was playing Sheffield United at home and they were conceding a lot of chances from the centre, plus most of their starting defence was injured. I rolled the dice when such an opportunity presented itself and that lead to a Gameweek rank of under 10k and a huge green arrow.

After the poor year that I had in 2020/21, I was looking back at my previous campaigns and noticed there were about five instances in a season where I hit a Gameweek rank of under 10k. This is when I’ve bet against the popular captain. The important factor here was that 90-95% of these monster scores happened after the first 10 Gameweeks. What this made me realise is that the start of the season is essentially a roll of the dice and that the chances for my gambles have a greater tendency to come off in the latter half of the season, once the mind subconsciously soaks in all the data from watching the games and looking at the stats. Then you just need to find and time the right week to differentiate from a popular captaincy choice. It should be a genuine case for going different, not doing it for the sake of ‘being’ different. I might have fallen into that trap last season and I’m mindful of not making that mistake again.

Obviously, the context of the season also matters. If you have a perma-cap option absolutely dominating every week like Luis Suarez or Robin van Persie, as was the case in past seasons, then you do not zag at all and find other ways to gain an advantage over the competition.

Also, a small tip is that if you’re backing against the popular captaincy option in any week, it would be handy to have that well-backed player in your team so that the damage is not too bad if it goes wrong. Outside of this, it always helps to get players who are on penalties and/or talismanic for their team and, in case of doubt, always captain the midfielder because the extra clean sheet and goal points add up. 

TOM SAID…

I tend to trust the big hitters with captaincy. Players like Mohamed Salah, Harry Kane, Kevin De Bruyne (£12.0m) and Bruno Fernandes are generally my go-to guys. Ideally, they’ll all have penalties and set-pieces in their locker, too.

I actually think planning to ensure that you have the big captaincy option each week is a sound strategy, and ideally, you want to be looking four to six Gameweeks ahead, just so you can plan your transfers around it.

In the past, when I’ve veered away from the premium options, it’s been very hit and miss. Last season, I tried something different in an attempt to make up ground, and spectacularly failed by opting for Marcus Rashford (£9.5m) over Fernandes (Gameweek 9), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£8.0m) over Salah (Gameweek 21) and Son Heung-min (£10.0m) over Kane (Gameweek 30). Those decisions alone cost me over 30 points, which is a huge swing.

However, I’m always on the lookout for opportunities. For example, Salah is a good option at Burnley in Gameweek 2 this season, but as I’ll already own him, could I look to a City option as an alternative at home to Norwich? In that kind of scenario, it might be worth taking a risk and betting against the more popular pick.