The Complete Guide to Scout’s tips and advice for Blank Gameweek 33

Following a quiet and uneventful week in which not much happened, Gameweek 33 is upon us. 

There’s another Friday deadline for what is a small Blank Gameweek with eight fixtures instead of the usual ten. You have until 18:30 BST deadline to make any last-minute changes to your side.

Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur contest the League Cup final meaning that they, along with their scheduled opponents, Southampton and Fulham, all blank.

Unexpected Captain

A rested Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) at home to Newcastle United would ordinarily mean we need to look no further in the captaincy debate. Especially when the underlying stats and motivation support his position at the top of the captain poll. 

As Jan revealed in Captain Sensible, the Egyptian has registered a higher xG score than any other midfielder in his last six starts and is two goals behind Harry Kane (£11.8m) in the race for the Golden Boot. What’s more, Liverpool must win games in order to stand a chance of qualifying for next season’s Champions League.

And yet Salah is not Jan’s first choice for the armband.

That honour is bestowed on Kelechi Iheanacho (£6.1m), who offers Fantasy managers an enticing alternative, particularly for those needing to make up ground. 

It’s the potent combination of in-form player taking on a woeful defence that appeals. Over the last six matches, the Leicester City forward trails only Kane for expected goals – his mark of 4.38 betters Salah’s 3.08 – while opponents Crystal Palace have conceded more big chances (16) than any other side in their last four.

Roy Hodgson’s team fall into the category of on the beach: reaching mid-table security can affect results:

Teams that have little to play for at the end of the season perform significantly worse at the end of the season.

– Andrew Puopolo, Harvard study on Premier League team performance

This is in contrast to Liverpool’s visitors this weekend, as Joe pointed out on the Captaincy Video:

If you’ve watched Newcastle recently they are a team that thought “oh no, we’re about to get relegated, we’d better do something about that.”

So perhaps this Gameweek presents an opportunity to captain a player who costs over 50 per cent less than Salah?

Players like Salah are reassuringly expensive, and with good reason, but price can lead us to ignore cheaper alternatives. It’s a point that Seb explained in his latest column piece:

Expensive players are good, inexpensive players are not. While this generally holds true, as players with strong points histories and positive prospects are priced more highly than those without, this is not the case for every player and thus can lead to us missing good opportunities.

As former FPL Champion Simon March advised us this week, now might be the time to remove the fear of taking risks:

A manager who is unafraid to take an educated punt possesses a potentially valuable characteristic if they are looking for an elite-level rank or if they dream of winning FPL.

What to do with Bruno? 

Another player who is likely to be heavily backed is Bruno Fernandes (£11.6m).

However Leeds, who host Manchester United on Sunday, are no longer a side that leave the back door open when they attack. The Whites have conceded 10 big chances fewer than Crystal Palace in their last four games, a defensive record that is the joint-sixth best in the division.

And the Portuguese has suffered a downturn in form of late, with just one goal and one assist in his last seven appearances. 

However, while the conclusion of our in-depth look into his recent performances suggests that the double-digit hauls will return, he isn’t the pivotal figure he was for the Red Devils earlier in the season:

He is still the leading midfielder for goal attempts in the whole league between Gameweeks 16 and 32 … [and] has also created more big chances across Gameweeks 16 to 32 than any other midfielder. [But] he isn’t quite the obvious talisman for Manchester United that he was, though, as team-mates have improved to help share the burden. Shaw, for example, has now wrestled control of corner-taking duties away from the Portuguese schemer.

Included alongside Salah and Iheanacho in the Scout Picks, David provided encouragement for those backing Fernandes against Bielsa’s side:

The Portuguese international has dispatched eight penalties this season, while Leeds have given up the joint-highest number of spot-kicks in 2020/21 (eight).

Team-mate Mason Greenwood (£7.1m) has been spoken of in glowing terms recently on the FPL Wire, and hosts and Pro Pundits Lateriser and Zophar both highlighted his eye-catching form:

Over the last four matches, no midfielder has taken more shots in the box (15) than Greenwood.

– Zophar

Compared to Fernandes, these opportunities have also been of better quality, with four big chances to three in favour of the Man United youngster.

Az was another to speak in glowing terms:

Greenwood strikes me as the perfect example of a confidence player, and I’m tempted to attempt to ride the purple patch he seems to be on by shipping out the misfiring Fernandes.

A bold move by Az especially considering the ownership of the two players, with Fernandes in over 57 per cent of teams compared to under five per cent for Greenwood.

Differentials

There are just six Gameweeks remaining, so for those chasing this may be the time to take a few calculated risks.

Sadio Mané (£11.7m) has been tipped by Tom to finish the season strongly, and after scoring against Leeds, hopes that a weight has been lifted off his shoulders. The Senegalese has been shooting more often this season, and with confidence restored could find that explosiveness in the final third.

Key to a revival could be Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m):

[Alexander-Arnold] is Liverpool’s top chance creator over the last six matches and, excluding Fantasy assists, the right-back has provided more assists for Mané (eight) than any colleague since his Premier League debut.

– Tom

Lateriser pointed out that the defender has created the highest number of big chances (four) of all outfielders in the last six matches and the FPL Prince sang his praises on the Scoutcast:

So 16 chances created that’s so far above everyone else in the last six, he’s on corners and Liverpool have been a little bit better defensively statistically wise at the minute. So Trent is just – I didn’t think he could keep it up but I think the whole thing about him not being in the England squad, Liverpool pushing for Europe, he’s almost near a must-own at the moment.

Elsewhere, the unfashionable Chris Wood (£6.3m) was a player touted by both Zophar and Joe this week, only Harry Kane can better his 11 shots in the penalty area over the last four matches. 

I think some recalibration is required in our thinking of Burnley as an obdurate, defence-first outfit. They have been playing attacking football of late with a pressing game rather than their traditional deep block.

– Zophar

And finally, a cut-price midfielder caught the attention of Lateriser, perhaps an interesting player to consider for those going with three up top.

Newcastle United are the fifth-best team in the league for shots inside the box. Budget midfielder Jacob Murphy has created a league-leading four big chances in this period, which is the same as Alexander-Arnold.

– Lateriser

Community Competitions and Head-to-Head Fixtures

Despite the lightning quick turnaround between Gameweeks, RedLightning has provided an update on the community competitions.

The Head-to-Head fixtures for Gameweek 33 can be found below. 

The scores and tables update every night on the Head-to-Head Leagues main page so you can keep track of the action as the Gameweek unfolds. 

May your arrows be green!