Gameweek Guide

The Complete Guide to Scout’s tips and advice for Gameweek 30

FPL is back after its international hiatus with the little controversy of another Double Gameweek announcement – Tottenham Hotspur will play twice in Gameweek 32.

As well as covering the usual captain dilemmas and some tasty one-week punts, the Guide to Gameweek 30 will look at how this affects our plans: what should we do with Gareth Bale (£9.6m) and could a “popular pasta dish” be on the menu?

We have a Saturday deadline this week and you have until 11:00 BST deadline to make any last-minute changes to your side. 

Effective Kane

Harry Kane (£11.6m) is set to be the popular armband pick against relegation-battling Newcastle United. 

Kane created four chances, had four big chances, [and] get this – shots inside the box: eight, shots on target: six – these are prime Kane stats.

– Joe, Captaincy Video

His impressive form over the last four matches led Joe to describe the England captain as the sensible choice. But is he the best choice?

Son Heung-min (£9.4m) looks set to recover from a bout of “international-itis” and could exploit a known weakness in Newcastle’s right flank. Joe and Pro Pundit Tom Freeman both highlighted the opportunity for the South Korean.

Tom noted that a switch to a back four at the end of January has seen the Magpies concede more chances down their right than any other team.

A vulnerability that fits neatly with Son’s shot heatmap this season. 

Above: Son Heung-min’s 2020/21 shot heatmap

And could adventurous left-back Sergio Reguilón (£5.5m) be another Spurs player to benefit from this area of susceptibility?

Penne for your thoughts

Speaking on the Scoutcast, Chris (aka el Fozzie) was not particularly impressed, pronouncing Reguilón’s name like a “popular pasta dish” (well it was dinner time), but Spurs aficionado Sam pointed to some encouraging stats for the former Real Madrid defender:

Reguilón has registered 17 attempts on goal so far this season … he is also top for successful crosses from open play among Mourinho’s squad.

– Sam

While the Spaniard might be a step too Farfalle for some, not so for Ted, who added Reguilón to his plate of Spurs players ahead of Gameweek 29. 

However, the graphic-creating manager found himself umming and ahhing about another of his new recruits, Gareth Bale.

Bale out

Following a no-show in Gameweek 29, the Welshman’s subsequent comments weren’t great news for owners and Spurs fans alike. Season ticket-holder Sam felt that “they don’t hint at a player who is here for the benefit of the club and its supporters.” 

Concerns over his game time make Bale a “wait and see” for high-flying Pro Pundit Andy. While Sam summarised the impact that Blank Gameweek 33 could have Mourinho’s team selection in her latest article:

Spurs will have both eyes firmly on the League Cup final against Man City, as it is now their only opportunity to bring silverware back to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season. This could also have a big impact on the teams that Spurs set out in Double Gameweek 32, as the Southampton match falls just days before the trip to Wembley.

– Sam

For Andy, the other issue with the blank in Gameweek 33 is that managers could potentially have a lot of money sitting on their bench in the form of Kane, Son and any Manchester City players. 

I would argue that there’s a case to just stick with a couple of Spurs players for the double.

– Andy

But with Spurs facing Sheffield United and Leeds United after the blank, benching our Lilywhites and selling Man City players could be the better ploy.

Slam Dunk

Indeed, Portuguese FPL machine, no not Bruno Fernandes (£11.5m) but Hall of Fame No 1, Fábio Borges, sold Cancelo (£6.1m) for a hit ahead of Gameweek 29.

When revealing his analytical decision-making process, the former poker professional explained how he set aside bias and gut feeling as he methodically worked out if Lewis Dunk (£5.0m) was worth buying for a minus four.

A six-point return would suggest that he was.

But even if [Dunk] blanked”, reasoned Fábio, “I would be happy with my decision of taking a hit, knowing that if I keep making transfers with a positive expected value in the future, it will work out more times than not.”

Echoing words from his interview last year:

Just because someone blanked twice in a row, it doesn’t necessarily mean that he is suddenly a bad pick and the same applies to poker – just because you lost one hand, it doesn’t mean that you played it poorly.

I think that being able to distance myself from the short-term results is one of my biggest strengths in FPL and poker played a huge part in that.

– Fábio Borges

Lateriser, when discussing identity in Fantasy Premier League, endorsed Fábio’s approach:

I have generally found the good managers are the ones that are not affected by the results but focus on the process. Temperament is an incredibly underrated thing in FPL.

– Lateriser

Another manager who has displayed an admirable temperament this season is Fábio’s closest rival at the top of our elite ranking system, Tom Stephenson.

Late Riser

As Greyhead noted when exploding the myth that a good start is crucial, the Hall of Fame No 2 was at the three million mark in Gameweek 3 but has risen to 4,261 – on track for a fifth top six thousand finish in six years.

Tom was Joe’s latest Meet the Manager guest during the IB and, like Fábio, plans to play his Wildcard in Gameweek 31. (Note that the interview was recorded before the Double Gameweek 32 announcement, so Tom included just Kane from Spurs.)

Aside from a good temperament, a further similarity Tom shares with Fábio is placing importance on ‘expected minutes’. For this reason he was reluctant to add Kevin De Bruyne (£11.9m) to his Wildcard squad:

I’m a little bit resentful about having to pay [nearly] 12 million and not know whether a player who I’d probably captain as well … is going to start.

– Tom Stephenson

The possible exception to this rule are one-week punts.

For those planning to play their Wildcard in Gameweek 31, Gameweek 30 presents just such an opportunity, with Tom among those considering a potentially rewarding move for Marcos Alonso (£5.7m).

The Spaniard, who was rested over the IB, is Tom Freeman’s top differential for the upcoming round of fixtures.

…When used correctly as a wing-back he has real quality, something Tuchel has recognised. Since Gameweek 21, when Alonso made a return to Chelsea’s starting XI in a 3-4-3 system, he has taken 13 shots. No defender can match that total during that period, despite limited minutes.

– Tom Freeman

But as Chelsea embark on a lovely run, bringing in at least one of Edouard Mendy (£5.2m), César Azpilicueta (£5.8m) or Antonio Rüdiger (£4.7m) is more of a priority for those thinking long-term.

And while the two Toms and Sam are plotting moves for their first Blues defender, Andy is considering a double-up. With Rüdiger already part of his XV man squad, the popular Pro Pundit is looking to add Mendy in goal. Two could be the magic number:

I’d provide a word of caution on the triple-up, though. While it looks good for the next few weeks, and I’m sure it’s something that Gameweek 31 Wildcarders will consider, you also need to think ahead about how to get out of it when the fixtures turn in Gameweek 35.

– Andy

In addition to Alonso, who Jan considers Chelsea’s best captain option in Gameweek 30, Joe threw Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s (£7.6m) name into the hat for one-week punts. The Everton forward has scored the most headed goals this season, while Crystal Palace have conceded the most headed chances.

Playing with FPL Fire

Jan went against the grain in the latest edition of Captain Sensible. The double-points maestro did acknowledge, however, that Kane is a reliable pick:

While this might not be a truly high-scoring and convincing win by Mourinho’s men given Newcastle’s defence-first approach, it is difficult to suggest Kane is unlikely to get an attacking return.

– Jan

But he feels that Leeds United have a better opportunity.

Over the last six matches, no team has conceded more shots on target than Sheffield United.

– Jan

Raphinha (£5.7m) and Patrick Bamford (£6.7m) are therefore Jan’s first and second choices for the armband:

It is Leeds midfielder Raphinha who emerges as my top captaincy pick for Gameweek 30. The tricky winger tops the creativity charts for midfielders and is a constant goal threat too.

– Jan

An opinion backed up by Ted on the Scoutcast, who confessed he would probably captain Raphinha if he had the guts.

But bravery might not be the only factor at play when deciding who to trust with the armband – effective ownership (EO) could play a part too.

There is no doubt in order to make serious ground, you need to bet against the template.

– Zophar

Zophar succinctly encapsulated the predicament facing many managers. 

And there could be real rewards for being different and going against the crowd. When charting the finer points of EO, Az cited a thread by FPL Swede, who revealed that only five times in 29 Gameweeks had the most captained option been the highest-scoring player among the main runners and riders for the armband.

But knowing when to stick and when to twist is undoubtedly the key.

To illustrate his point, Az used two examples of his FPL Black Box co-host, Mark, paying attention to EO. The first was owning Timo Werner (£9.2m) in Gameweek 1, when Mark was protecting himself against the sizable ownership and unknown quantity the German presented. 

The other was when he captained Raphinha over Bamford in Gameweek 25 and exploited the Brazilian’s status as a differential against Bamford’s big EO.

Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water

But don’t sell good assets just for the sake of differentiating, cautioned Zophar, “calculated risks are the key to ‘upside chasing’”. 

The seven-time top eight thousand finisher looked ahead to the fixture swing in Gameweek 31, identifying the teams and players to target.

As former FPL winner Simon March counselled, fixtures, and their difficulty, are likely to have a significant influence on how players perform in the future. They can help us avoid the feeling that our new transfer has waited for us to fully buy into them before suddenly becoming useless.

So it was perhaps slightly surprising to find that Leeds pair Raphinha and Bamford were both included in Zophar’s selection, despite facing Manchester City, Liverpool, and Man United before Gameweek 34. 

But Tom Stephenson agreed, including Raphinha in his Wildcard draft. Planning ahead, Tom noted that Leeds finish the season very well. 

Also featuring in Zophar’s shortlist were Liverpool trio Mohamed Salah (£12.4m), Diogo Jota (£6.7m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m). The FPL Wire co-host reasoned that the return of Fabinho (£5.4m) to midfield boosts the prospects for the attacking full-back.

And Wolves offered a few names for consideration.

All four of Zophar, Neale, Andy, and Tom Freeman picked out Conor Coady (£4.8m).

No defender has been afforded more big chances (three) than the Liverpool Academy product over the last six matches. And the return of Willy Boly (£5.4m) could help remedy Wolves’ vulnerability in the air.

During his in-depth look at Nuno Espírito Santo’s team, Neale highlighted that “goalscoring remains an ongoing issue: seven goals in their last 10 top-flight matches is this shot-shy season in microcosm.

But Pedro Neto (£5.7m) presents the best attacking option for those tempted:

The Portuguese winger is top or joint-top among his teammates for the following metrics: shots on goal, shots in the box, efforts on target, big chances, penalty box touches, successful crosses, chances created and big chances created.

– Neale

Neto is included in Tom’s Gameweek 31 Wildcard draft.

Community Competitions and Head-to-Head Fixtures

Neale reviewed the latest results in the FFS Open Cup and Members Cup.

There will be a new name on both trophies this season as the two remaining former winners, Lokomotiv and Pep Pig, were eliminated in Gameweek 29.

While the David vs Goliath clash of the lowest-ranked manager against the highest, came down to ‘rank difference’ as 415th-placed The Fighting Cock benefited from his lofty perch to overcome Jonathan Ojao following a 45-all tie.

The battling rooster takes on stonerrocks in round five of the Open Cup.

There are six rounds to go in both cups and the finals are set to take place in Gameweek 35.

Elsewhere, RedLightning brought us his usual round-up of the latest Community mini-leagues and competitions.

Phil Olorenshaw is enjoying an excellent campaign, leading four of our featured mini-leagues, while in Head-to-Head League 1 last season’s sixth-placed finisher Aleksander Våge Nilsen has a narrow three-points advantage over Ville Tuominen

The Head-to-Head fixtures for Gameweek 30 can be found below. 

The scores and tables are now updating every night on the Head-to-Head Leagues main page so you can keep track of the action as the Gameweek unfolds. 

May your arrows be green!

TopMarx Fan of Fantasy Football and Monty Python. "Archimedes out to Socrates, Socrates back to Archimedes, Archimedes out to Heraclitus, he beats Hegel. Heraclitus a little flick, here he comes on the far post, Socrates is there, Socrates heads it in! Socrates has scored! The Greeks are going mad, the Greeks are going mad! Socrates scores, got a beautiful cross from Archimedes. The Germans are disputing it. Hegel is arguing that the reality is merely an a priori adjunct of non-naturalistic ethics, Kant via the categorical imperative is holding that ontologically it exists only in the imagination, and Marx is claiming it was offside. Follow them on Twitter

1,781 Comments Post a Comment
  1. RedJive79
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Start Stones or Struijk?

  2. Weeb Kakashi
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Pick one. Playing BB

    A Cancelo > Alonso
    B Cancelo Alderweireld> Alonso Reece(-4)

    WC intact.

    1. Bubbles1985
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      A

      1. Weeb Kakashi
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Alderweireld starts you think?

  3. buttsy9
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Start Cancelo or Stones or Both?

  4. Bubbles1985
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    GTG?

    Martinez
    Cancelo Digne Shaw
    Soucek Bruno Salah Son(c)
    Antonio Bamford DCL(vc)

    Steer Gundo Pereira Mitchell

    I have 1.1itb and 0ft.

    Cheers!

    1. abides
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      looks good! good luck 🙂

  5. FantasyClub
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Is everyone doing the sideways move of Bale to Son or just sticking?

    1. Bubbles1985
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Sticking with Son - C

      1. FantasyClub
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        I think you misunderstood my question

        1. Bubbles1985
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          Nope. I already have Son over Bale. 🙂

    2. HD7
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I think Im sticking mate.

    3. Bury94
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I've made the move

    4. Whazza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Doubling up instead

      1. FantasyClub
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Think I should do KDB to Son free?

        1. Whazza
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          no way

    5. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Deep down I wanted to keep Bale as I only got him last week, but I think with the DGW coming up there's no point in saving the FT as I'd want Son anyway.

      Spurs have layers that can play RW that were rested. Newcastle are weak on their right. Mourinho says Son will play. Decent enough reasons.

      (My bench is Gundogan, Stones, Dunk, so if he pissed out might even end up with Dunk coming on.)

      1. FantasyClub
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Good point. I did the same but always prefer Son over Bale.

  6. HD7
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Martinez
    Cancelo Strujik Reguilon
    Raphinha Bruno Lingard Bale
    DCL Kane Bamford

    Fraser Stones Bissouma Mitchell

    A) Bale to Son
    B) Strujik to Dallas/ Shaw —which one?

    1. tbos83
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      A

    2. abides
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      A
      but i'd probably save

      1. HD7
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Incoming WC

  7. McPollolocco
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Who should i start:
    a) Ings
    b) Targett

    1. tbos83
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      B

  8. Rashers
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Random James Rodriguez punt before wildcard

    1. Kun Tozser
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Serving up a DCL hat-trick, so why not

  9. Jdpz
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Bruno or Salah for this GW?

    1. tbos83
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Bruno

    2. Il Capitano
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Bruno

  10. corderz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    GTG?

    Martinez
    Cancelo Shaw Dallas
    Son(vc) Bruno Lingard Raphinha
    Kane(C) Antonio Bamford

    Johnstone Gundogan Aina Veltman

    1. Il Capitano
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Yes

    2. nothing_else_Mata
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Yes, but change your VC. Not ideal to have C and VC from same team

      1. corderz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        True. Changed vc to Raphinha

        Tempted Son captain but strength in numbers and all that.....

  11. tbos83
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Cap Bam or Bruno?

  12. ooooo
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Start one of Stones Gundo Cancelo over Auba?

  13. Il Capitano
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    0 FT - 6.6m ITB - Only TC remaining

    Martinez
    Azpi Digne Cresswell
    Raphinha (VC) Bruno Lingard Gundo
    DCL Kane (C) Bamford

    Fabri - Targett Stones ESR

    All set and G2G?

  14. FDMS All Starz
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Start 2 of the following:

    A) Dallas
    B) Watkins
    C) Gundo
    D) Lowton

    1. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      A and C

  15. MIGHTY JOE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Start Auba or Gundo?

  16. Riggs
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    I need to bench one of these:
    A) Lingard
    B) Gundogan
    C) Watkins

    1. John Nerdelbaum
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I've benched Watkins

  17. HD7
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Why no love for Bruno as Captain?

    1. Weasel Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      This

    2. MIGHTY JOE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I have lots of love for that!

    3. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Im on him. 11 pointer with a pen from Mike Read Im hoping

  18. Muscout
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Quick thoughts?

    A) Maupay to Bamford
    B) Bale to Son
    C) Save

    Captain:
    1) Kane
    2) Bam
    3) Raph

    1. abides
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      C1 or B and captain Son

  19. Qaiss
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Owned Martínez since his first game this season, where he saved a penalty and got a clean sheet... today is the last time he will be in my team, farewell Emi.

    1. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Gw2

    2. Bubbles1985
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Who for?

      1. Qaiss
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        I’m on WC in 31 so Mendy/Leno/Lloris are all tempting.

        1. Bubbles1985
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          Yeah me too, WC31 too and probably going Mendy. Hopefully he is nailed!

  20. The 12th Man
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    All set.
    Mendy
    Alonso,Shaw,Cresswell
    Fernandes,Son,Lingard,Mahrez, Raphinia
    Kane(c)Bamford

    Lloris,Lacazette,Rüdiger, Tierney 0.7m itb

    GL all.

    1. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      This is a wildcard team right? Damn that bench could score well.

      1. The 12th Man
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Aye.
        Strong bench to accommodate Benching Leeds players and Alonso in side.

    2. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I’m considering Alonso (C) over Kane.. Is that madness??

      1. The 12th Man
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Just having him is enough for me.

  21. dshv
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Anyone to giving me a push for captain raphinha ??

    1. Thomas Magnum
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      No apparently he’s no good at home

      1. Whazza
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        What, who said that? He has been better recently and it's Sheffield.

    2. Gommy
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Yep, I’m on it. Jump aboard

  22. Thomas Magnum
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    For one week only?
    A) Shaw
    B) Reguilon

    1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Ive bought Reg with the double in mind so Id say him. Newcastle poor down their right

  23. corderz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Any changes?

    Martinez
    Cancelo Shaw Dallas
    Son(vc) Bruno Lingard Raphinha
    Kane(C) Antonio Bamford

    Johnstone Gundogan Aina Veltman

  24. NoName
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    G2G?

    Martinez
    Alonso Digne Cresswell
    Son Bale Bruno Raphinha
    Kane DCL

    (Fabri, Lingard Stones Struijk)

    1. NoName
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      *Kane DCL Antonio

  25. RyanMK
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Start Lingard or Bale?

  26. JJO
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Play 2 from:
    A) Gundo
    B) Lingard
    C) Antonio

    1. RyanMK
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      A & B

    2. John Nerdelbaum
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Tricky one, probably Lingard

    3. JJO
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Thanks guys

  27. Deulofail
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Mendy, Mount and Havertz benched according to someone called Jason in Andy's chat. Unconfirmed but Andy apparently trusts this guy in general.

    1. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      The Mendy benching would be hilarious

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Will be fun... 😀

    3. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Hey ho good luck Sanchez for me then

  28. LanMi
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Who should I bench for Azpi and Jota? Gundo/Watkins/Lingard?

  29. Weeb Kakashi
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Alonso and Reece to start today?

  30. aardvark22
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    play

    A) Bale
    B) Lingard

    1. vova
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      if you have Bale in your team you might as well start him