Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers face the classic test of form versus fixture as Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) and Cole Palmer (£11.0m) lock horns in the captaincy battle ahead of Gameweek 14.
And we can’t write off a certain Norwegian, despite his barren spell. Then there are alternative and differential options from Arsenal, Aston Villa and Chelsea on the table for the contrarian and unconventional managers amongst us.
As usual, Captain Sensible is here to highlight which assets have the best chance of hauling.
First, we will assess the fallout of the on-site captain poll. We will then analyse the player and team statistics, Rate My Team (RMT) and the Premier Fantasy Tools ratings ahead of Tuesday’s 18:00 GMT deadline.
THE CAPTAIN POLL
Cole Palmer produced a spectacular curling second-half strike to seal Chelsea’s 3-0 win over Aston Villa, to add to his earlier assist for Enzo Fernandez (£4.8m).
The former Man City starlet was in red-hot form, with his five goal attempts and three shots on target both match-leading totals in a busy display.
Ahead of Chelsea’s visit to Southampton, Palmer is backed by just over 40% of our users to put Russell Martin’s struggling Saints side to the sword.
Meanwhile, Mohamed Salah sealed a dominant win over Man City with a late penalty, earning Arne Slot’s high-octane Liverpool a comfortable 2-0 victory.
Salah took his tally of attacking returns for the season to 18 against Guardiola’s side.
Liverpool’s Egyptian is backed by just under one-quarter of our users to add to his tally of nine double-digit hauls ahead of their visit to Tyneside.
Erling Haaland (£15.0m) occupies third place with 13.2% of the vote, with Bukayo Saka (£10.4m) and Liam Delap (£5.6m) further back.
THE PLAYER STATISTICS – LAST SIX MATCHES
Haaland sits at the summit for shots (29), attempts in the box (27) and non-penalty xG (5.60) in this assessment.
The Norwegian, however, shares the spoils with a certain high-flying Egyptian when it comes to big chances (11 apiece) and shots on target (both 11).
In terms of minutes per non-penalty involvement, Salah’s 76.6 dwarves Haaland’s highly respectable rate of 95.1.
Bukayo Saka is the creativity king. Arsenal’s playmaker leads Son-Heung-min (£9.9m) for big chances created, by seven to five.
Meanwhile, we have a three-way tie when it comes to key passes with Martin Odegaard (£8.3m), Saka and Son all level on 16.
Furthermore, Saka tops the charts for expected assists (xA, 2.56) with the Colney graduate ahead of Son’s 1.73.
And the Arsenal youngster has goal threat, with only Haaland firming more than Saka’s 22 shots over the last six matches.
In terms of dual threat, only two players in our assessment have registered double-digits for shots in the box and key passes – Saka and Palmer.
Notably, Saka leads Palmer for key passes (16 to 11) and efforts in the box (18 to 10).
Finally, Nicolas Jackson (£8.1m) sits bottom in this assessment for minutes per non-penalty involvement (228.8). The Senegal striker has negligible creative output, sitting in the bottom three here for big chances created (one) and key passes (seven).
Moreover, despite leading the line for Chelsea, Jackson’s non-penalty xG tally of 1.88 is just the fifth best among present company.
TEAM ATTACKING STATISTICS – LAST SIX MATCHES
Haaland’s Man City have posted some impressive underlying numbers over the last six. They lead for total attempts (108), efforts inside the box (74) and non-penalty xG (11.32).
However, only Everton (three) have notched more than Man City’s six goals in as many matches. Their xG delta of -6.32 marks Guardiola’s side out as extreme underperformers.
Meanwhile, Salah’s Liverpool sits at the summit for big chances (25) and shots on target (40), a tally which is 11 better than the nearest challengers Brighton & Hove Albion and Bournemouth (29 apiece).
Notably, Arne Slot’s side also sits in the top two for goals (13) and non-penalty xG (10.56) over the last six.
Elsewhere, Spurs are the second biggest overperformers in this assessment, with an xG Delta of +4.18.
Postecoglou’s attack sits top for goals scored (14) from a non-penalty xG tally of 9.82, with 17 big chances and 55 shots in the box sitting around midway in this sample.
Maresca’s Chelsea, meanwhile, ranks sixth for non-penalty xG (9.64) despite registering just 12 big chances over the last six. Only three sides have generated fewer high-quality chances.
Interestingly, Arsenal is midtable for non-penalty xG (7.41) with their tally of 11 goals padded by two penalties received at West Ham last time out.
Arteta’s men, for example, sit in the bottom five for shots on target (20) over the last six, also ranking midtable for big chances (15) and goal attempts (73).
Finally, Watkins’ Aston Villa place in the top four for big chances (20), efforts in the box (62) and non-penalty xG (10.28) ahead of a decent run of fixtures for Emery’s side – starting with the visit of Brentford.
TEAM DEFENDING STATISTICS – LAST SIX MATCHES
Palmer and Jackson owners will be excited to see Southampton post the worst defensive underlying numbers over the last six. They have allowed the most efforts from set pieces (34), headed goal attempts (22) and non-penalty xG conceded (12.22).
The Saints also sit in the bottom two for big chances shipped (21) and attempts in the box conceded (74).
Meanwhile, Haaland’s visitors Nottingham Forest top the charts for non-penalty xG conceded (5.34). Nuno Espirito Santo’s side sit joint-top for clean sheets (three) over the last six.
Notably, no side has allowed fewer than Forest’s four big chances conceded in this assessment.
Elsewhere, only five sides have conceded fewer goals than Salah’s hosts Newcastle United (seven) over the last half dozen.
The defensive underlying numbers for Eddie Howe’s side are respectable with the Magpies in the top half for big chances allowed (13) and non-penalty xG conceded (6.98).
Arteta’s Arsenal, meanwhile, welcome a Man United side on the up under the new stewardship of Ruben Amorim.
Just five goals conceded by Man United is best in this assessment, with the Red Devils in the top three for big chances shipped (11) and efforts in the box allowed (38).
Despite a solitary clean sheet over the last six, Spurs’ hosts Bournemouth have demonstrated some decent defensive underlying numbers. The Cherries sit in the top six for non-penalty xG conceded (6.93), with Andoni Iraola’s side allowing 14 big chances and 51 shots in the box – those tallies place Bournemouth midtable in this assessment.
Finally, Watkins’ visitors Brentford sit bottom for open-play goal attempts conceded (84).
RATE MY TEAM
Above: RMT’s leading captaincy selections for Gameweek 14
Palmer tops the RMT ratings in Gameweek 14, with Chelsea’s talisman forecast to score 7.35 points at Southampton.
In second place is Salah’s 6.44 points, followed by Haaland and his 6.43.
PREMIER FANTASY TOOLS
Above: Leading captaincy candidates for Gameweek 14 according to Premier Fantasy Tools
Our friends at Premier Fantasy Tools offer a complete range of captaincy tools on their website, one of which is the Captain Picker.
They side with Palmer this week, with Salah second and Haaland third from the key names we’ve mentioned here.
You can also use Premier Fantasy Tools’ Captain Analyser to assess your armband picks for the season – and see where they went right and wrong.
IN CONCLUSION
Above: FPL Gameweek 14’s projected goals and clean sheets from @robtfpl on X
Palmer and Salah boast excellent form heading into Gameweek 14, with the Egyptian’s strong underlying numbers offering him the edge over Chelsea’s playmaker at the player table.
In terms of fixture difficulty, however, Maresca’s side certainly comes out on top when we look at that all-important market data – with Chelsea strongly fancied for goals.
Indeed, personnel changes for Southampton due to suspension and injuries appear to be significant. The prospect of facing Chelsea without a glut of at least four first-team players is a daunting task.
Meanwhile, the team data strongly supports options from both Man City and Liverpool, who have demonstrated strong attacking underlying numbers over the last six.
Ahead of Gameweek 14, however, it’s Palmer who comfortably takes the top spot for me.
Chelsea’s talisman is strongly backed by both RMT and the captain poll, with his dual edge threat squeezing Man City’s toiling frontman into second place (even though I expect an upturn from the Norwegian this time out).
Completing the top three is Salah. His nine double-figure hauls are a scary level of output with both his player numbers and that of Arne Slot’s attack going very well. I feel obligated to back the fixture and feel that Newcastle United away could be a tester for the Reds.
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4 months, 1 day agoKepa or Verbruggen for the next 5 GWs?