As the Premier League schedule begins to compress over the winter period, we’ve dug into the StatsBomb data available in our Premium Members Area to assess who have been the best, worst, luckiest and unluckiest finishers across the top flight.
That means taking a look at two stats in particular: shot execution (Exc) and post-shot xG delta (Δ).
Read on to find out who has been topping the charts so far this season and which players might need to practice their shooting more.
Best finishers
Before we begin, a defintion:
Execution (Exc): post-shot expected goals (PSxG) minus expected goals (xG). All non-penalty.
Essentially, xG measures the quality of a chance before the shot is taken.
PSxG gives a value to a shot after it has been taken, ie factoring in what part of the goal the ball ends up etc.
It’s worth noting here that the xG figure shown in the Members Area table is adjusted to weight shots from rebounds slightly differently. So, if a player has more than one shot in the same move, allowances are made (you cannot score more than one goal in a period of possession!).
However, the xG figure used to calculate the Exc statistic weights all shots equally. When you want to measure finishing skill, each shot should be taken individually.
Above: Players sorted by shot execution (Exc) in 2024/25 overall
Erling Haaland (£14.9m) is, surprisingly, top among all outfield players with an Exc score of 2.75 through his first 16 matches. Though he is currently going through something of a dry spell, the Manchester City striker has still racked up 13 goals, including one penalty, from a total of 73 shots across the season.
Less surprising is that Haaland’s Exc figure was +3.84 in Gameweeks 1-5; it’s -1.09 since.
Mohamed Salah (£13.4m) and Bukayo Saka (£10.4m) are premium names you’d have expected to see in the above table.
Chris Wood (£6.6m), too. Wood has eight non-penalty goals from 28 shots and an xG of just 3.94 so far. His PSxG is a couple points higher, giving him an Exc score of 1.86 – which underscores what a top finisher he’s been in Nuno Espirito Santo’s 12 months in charge. Yoane Wissa (£6.2m) is the only forward with a better shots-to-goals ratio this season.
Also bettering his xG score by some margin is Jørgen Strand Larsen (£5.6m). He has six goals came from an xG of 3.83. The Wolves man’s PSxG jumps up to 5.94, though, which gives him the fourth-best shot execution rating over the season so far despite a blanks in the last three Gameweeks.
Should the new Wolves manager be able to get a tune out of his new charges and encourage a healthy supply line to Strand Larsen, the budget forward is one for the watchlist.
Encouraging for existing and prospective owners of Alex Iwobi (£5.7m) is his prominence in the above and below tables.
Above: Players sorted by shot execution (Exc) in the last six Gameweeks
Be wary, though: Bryan Mbeumo (£7.6m), who many managers have downgraded or planned to offload soon, is behind only Haaland for Exc over the course of 2024/25.
Above: Players sorted by shot execution (Exc) in 2023/24
As for the 2023-24 campaign, Jarrod Bowen (£7.4m) came out on top for finishing skill across the season. His shot execution added a whopping 5.81 xG to the chances he was given.
He just pipped Phil Foden (£9.1m) in this metric, last season’s Player of the Year finishing with an Exc score of 5.76, while Rodri (£6.3m), former budget gem Cole Palmer (£11.1m) and Son Heung-min (£9.9m) rounding out the top five.
Interestingly, Golden Boot winner Haaland more or less equalled his xG figures when scoring his 27 league goals, but a total Exc score of 1.74 was a good reflection of his finishing ability.
Worst finishers
As with the rest of StatsBomb and Opta’s stats, you can find these tables and more in Fantasy Football Scout’s Premium Members Area.
2 months, 18 days agoPinnock down. Doesn't look good.