Southampton full-back Yukinari Sugawara (£4.5m) could be a hidden gem in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) this season.
In this article, guest writer FPL Bluebird profiles the Saints’ goalkeepers and defenders.
To provide a fan’s view, we’ve got insight from Fantasy Football Scout user The Naga Khan.
The stats in this piece are taken from WhoScored, FotMob, Opta Analyst and FBref.
WHAT IS SOUTHAMPTON’S CLEAN SHEET POTENTIAL?
| W | D | L | F | A | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 26 | 9 | 11 | 87 | 63 | 87 |
| Home | 15 | 3 | 5 | 54 | 29 | 48 |
| Away | 11 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 34 | 39 |
Even though Southampton had the highest number of shot-ending turnovers (82) in 2023/24, they still conceded a high number of shots and goals. They only managed to keep 12 clean sheets during the regular season (26%). Worryingly, they conceded three or more goals on eight separate occasions, conceding a total of 30 in the process.
| Metric | Total | Championship rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals conceded | 63 | 14th |
| Clean sheets | 12 | =12th |
| Shots conceded open play | 402 | 12th |
| Shots conceded set play | 138 | =1st |
| Shots conceded per game | 11.1 | 6th |
| xG conceded open play | 39.15 | 10th |
| xG conceded set play | 11.09 | 4th |
| Tackles per game | 14.2 | 21st |
Looking at Southampton’s defensive performance, there are a number of issues which need to be addressed before their Premier League campaign starts. Last season’s statistics did not bode well for the challenges that lie ahead. Ranking 12th, 10th and 14th in key defensive metrics, is not ideal. It certainly raises concerns about how they will adapt to life in the top tier. The step-up may expose the defensive frailties they encountered last season and they will face teams who know how to take advantage of their vulnerabilities.
“Solid is not a word I would use to describe our defence. Russell Martin’s teams have generally leaked goals wherever he has been and in a pre-season Q&A session he has openly said that we have to be much better defensively. We will largely have a new backline this season. If I was putting money on it I’d say we will concede two more often than we concede one!” – The Naga Khan
THE PLAYERS
2023/24: APPS, GOALS AND ASSISTS
| Player | Price | Apps | Goals | Assists | NPxG + xA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker-Peters | £4.5m | 43 | 2 | 4 | 7.0 |
| Manning | £4.5m | 37 | 0 | 2 | 5.0 |
| Harwood-Bellis | £4.0m | 40 | 2 | 3 | 4.2 |
| Bednarek | £4.0m | 42 | 2 | 0 | 3.0 |
| Stephens | £4.0m | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 |
YUKINARI SUGAWARA
Yukinari Sugawara was a good creator for AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie last season. He is a very attack-minded right-back who averaged 1.86 chances created per 90 minutes (p90). In his 30 appearances, he created 53 chances in total, 16 of those being big chances. He also completed the most crosses for AZ, sitting third in Eredivisie overall.
Over the past two seasons, he has scored seven goals and created 15 assists in the Dutch league. He registered 0.12 expected goals (xG) p90 in 2022/23 and 0.07 last season. His expected assists (xA) p90 was 0.18 and 0.21.
Sugawara has already made an impact at St Mary’s, with a goal from distance and providing an assist in his four brief appearances during pre-season.
“Yuki Sagawara is our new right-back. A Japanese international, the early signs are he is quality. He can score a direct free-kick, has a wallop on him from outside the box and gets forward, but we’ll need to see how he adapts to the defensive requirements of the Premier League.” – The Naga Khan
OTHER OPTIONS
Southampton are blessed with a number of experienced players, some who featured in their last Premier League campaign. An injury to goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu (£4.5m) will likely see Alex McCarthy (£4.5m) start in goal unless a new ‘keeper arrives. Bazunu is likely to be sidelined until the New Year.
“Alex McCarthy did well in goal when he came out of the stands unexpectedly last season when Bazunu got injured in the warm up. Neither Lumley or Lis are going to challenge him for the number one spot, but he has proven shaky over a whole Premier League season. Unless we move on Lis we won’t be in for another keeper, if Lis goes the fans want a replacement to displace McCarthy but I suspect Martin’s loyalty will win the day.” – The Naga Khan
It was rumoured that Kyle Walker-Peters (£4.5m) may be on his way out of the club, which would leave the creative Yukinari Sugawara to slot in at right-back. While there is also some suggestion that Walker-Peters could move over to the other flank if he does stay at the club. Although, the dependable Charlie Taylor (£4.0m) was recruited from Burnley.
Other experienced figures are centre-backs Jack Stephens (£4.0m) and Jan Bednarek (£4.0m). Taylor Harwood-Bellis’ (£4.0m) loan spell has been made permanent and he is expected to start the season opener. All three centre-backs offer an aerial threat and Harwood-Bellis has already been on the scoresheet in pre-season. Currently, he is the most popular £4.0m defender in FPL (14.7%).
“Harwood-Bellis is a class act and some of his long diagonal passing will have the Premier League watchers drooling, but he has limited appeal other than a £4.0m budget bench filler.
“Walker-Peters is all but gone as far as we can tell. If he gets a move to a top half club and nails the right back spot he will be a £4.5m bargain. Bednarek has been offered a new deal but not yet signed, we will sell if he doesn’t as he is in the last year of his contract.
“I would expect Jack Stephens to be selected if his form holds up, though he has struggled in the top-flight before. Charlie Taylor will add some experience coming in from Burnley on the left of what is likely to be a three centre-back core style of play.” – The Naga Khan
Russell Martin has already been active in the transfer market as he seeks to strengthen his squad for the challenges ahead. Besides recruiting Sugawara and Taylor, they have also signed Ronnie Edwards (£4.0m) and Nathan Wood (£4.0m). Two young centre-backs who will provide cover in that position. They also have James Bree (£4.0m) on their books. He made 19 appearances last season.
Juan Larios (£4.0m) is a Spanish youth international and his versatility enables him to provide cover on both flanks. Another versatile player who can play both at left-back and in midfield is Ryan Manning (£4.5m). The Republic of Ireland international made 37 appearances last season and was a second-half substitute in the Championship play-off final.
In the next article in this series, we will delve into Southampton’s attacking assets.
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