This latest Tales of the Expected article explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches.
We will assess each side from an attacking and defensive perspective.
We’ll also look at the leading players in each position for expected goal involvement (xGI).
TEAMS
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS (xG) – LAST SIX MATCHES
| Team | xG | Goals | xG delta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bournemouth | 16.55 | 12 | -4.55 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 15.34 | 16 | +0.66 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 13.19 | 14 | +0.81 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 12.31 | 7 | -5.31 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 11.57 | 12 | +0.43 |
| 6 | Tottenham Hotspur | 11.05 | 13 | +1.95 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 10.63 | 7 | -3.63 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace | 10.03 | 8 | -2.03 |
| 9 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 8.93 | 9 | +0.07 |
| 10 | Brentford | 7.83 | 13 | +5.17 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 7.48 | 10 | +2.52 |
| 12 | West Ham United | 7.37 | 7 | +0.37 |
| 13 | Leicester City | 7.34 | 8 | 0.66 |
| 14 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 6.82 | 11 | +4.18 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6.69 | 8 | +1.31 |
| 16 | Ipswich Town | 6.61 | 5 | -1.61 |
| 17 | Fulham | 6.60 | 10 | +3.40 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 6.44 | 11 | +4.56 |
| 19 | Everton | 6.26 | 5 | -1.26 |
| 20 | Southampton | 5.58 | 5 | +0.58 |
Bournemouth have created chances worth 16.55 xG in the last six matches, the most of any team in the division.
Three penalties in Gameweek 13 has, of course, helped, yet they’ve regularly posted above 2.0 xG in this period, with Andoni Iraola’s expansive, front-foot approach starting to bear fruit.
That said, wastefulness in front of goal has been an issue.
According to Opta, they have scored 4.5 goals fewer than they should have in this six-game sample, based on the quality of chances they have created.
“For me, it’s a lot about the mentality, to avoid thinking, ‘We are having a good volume, it doesn’t matter if I miss this chance, I will have another one in five or 10 minutes.’
“The key is to treat every chance like it’s the last one you will have in this game. The big teams have the same focus for 100 minutes in every game. They cannot allow one mistake, they cannot allow missing one-on-one against the ‘keeper. We have to be the same.” – Andoni Iraola
Aston Villa and Manchester City have simply not been clinical enough, either.
Elsewhere, Enzo Maresca is starting to make his mark at Chelsea.
In the last six matches, they have scored 16 goals from 15.34 xG, with the Italian’s 4-2-3-1 formation allowing key players to thrive.
Furthermore, their 5.29 xG total against Southampton in Gameweek 14 was the highest ever recorded by an away side in a top-flight game.
London rivals Arsenal have accumulated 11.57 xG in the last six matches, but from open play – which excludes chances created from corners and free-kicks – it’s just 5.27, which would rank them 14th.
At the foot of the table, Manchester United, Everton and Southampton occupy the bottom three.
United have switched to Ruben Amorim’s 3-4-3 formation with limited success so far, particularly from an attacking perspective.
In four league games under the Portuguese tactician, they are averaging just 0.92 xG per match.
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS CONCEDED (xGC) – LAST SIX MATCHES
3 months, 23 days agoRaya
Gabriel* - Hall - Konsa
Saka - Salah - Palmer - Mbeumo
Isak - Pedro - Raul
Fabianski - Rogers - Lewis** - Greaves**
2FTs, 1.1m ITB
A. Mbeumo + Raul to Enzo + Jackson (will be down to 2 starting defs if Gabriel doesnt play)
or
B. Mbeumo + Greaves to Enzo + TAA
or
C. Mbeumo + Raul to Gordon/Bowen + Evanilson/Wood (will be down to 2 starting defs if Gabriel doesnt play)
or
D. Mbeumo + Greaves to Gordon/Bowen + cheap defender 4.5m
or
E. Just make the defender transfer and save the other FT
or
F. Something else
Confused af. Help.