Like a long-distance runner sprinting away from the field, the question is not whether Mohamed Salah (£13.7m) will win the points race but whether he will break the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) record in doing so.
It’s a record he holds, having amassed 303 points in his debut season at Liverpool. That was the first and only time a player has broken the 300-point barrier.
FPL’s Roger Bannister is currently well placed to do so again.
A whopping 56 points ahead of his closest challenger, he’s racked up 209 points in double quick time.
No player has ever had such a big tally after 20 Gameweeks – and bear in mind that Liverpool have played one fewer game than most following the postponement of the Merseyside derby.
Top five season totals
| Player | Season | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah | 2017/18 | 303 |
| Luis Suarez | 2013/14 | 295 |
| Frank Lampard | 2009/10 | 284 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 2007/08 | 283 |
| Erling Haaland | 2022/23 | 272 |
Form vs Form
Salah has produced 11.0 points per match (ppm) over his 19 contests so far, a rate which has rarely been seen before.
Erling Haaland (£14.8m) averaged 10.6ppm for his first 11 appearances in Fantasy but hasn’t replicated that form over such a long period since. Cole Palmer (£11.4m), who amassed 295 points across 36 outings in 2024, averaged the same during a 14-match run between Gameweeks 17 and 33 last term.
Salah himself has impressed in prior years, scoring 168 points in 17 matches at the start of the 2021/22 campaign. And, in his triple-century season, he averaged 10.5ppm over his 20 outings from Gameweeks 11.
Chomping at the bit
Luis Suarez exploded out of the blocks in 2013/14, registering a remarkable 12.7ppm over his first 12 appearances. Although the rate dropped to 10.4ppm if extended to his first 19 games.
Suarez missed Liverpool’s opening five Premier League fixtures, the result of a 10-match ban imposed by the FA towards the end of 2012/13. But he went on to start all 33 matches he was available for, setting a then-season-record of 295 points. An average of 8.9ppm, bettering Salah’s 8.4ppm from 2017/18.
Many would argue that was the greatest ever season in Fantasy, with Suarez totalling 55 attacking returns thanks to 30 goals and 25 assists. And that’s without taking penalties.
For comparison, Salah is on 31 attacking returns and notched 44 goals and assists combined when setting the record tally.
Another 24 goal involvements over his remaining 19 fixtures is a big ask. But, as he benefits from being classified as a midfielder in FPL, he only needs to average 5.0ppm to set a new points high.
Top five attacking returns
| Player | Season | Goals + Assists |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Suarez | 2013/14 | 55 |
| Thierry Henry | 2002/03 | 47 |
| Erling Haaland | 2022/23 | 45 |
| Mohamed Salah | 2017/18 | 44 |
| Robin van Persie | 2011/12 | 43 |
Messi in the Premier League
We never got to see Lionel Messi in the Premier League. Salah’s current campaign gives us a taste of what it may have looked like, however.
Excluding penalties, Messi averaged over 1.00 goals and assists per 90 minutes for 13 successive La Liga seasons, often surpassing 1.20 per 90. His non-penalty expected goal contributions during this period hovered between 0.75 per 90 and 1.00.
Salah is just under 1.20 goals and assists per 90, with penalties removed. StatsBomb have him on 11 assists for the season, Opta on 13. Taking Opta's total would push him up to 1.27 goal contributions per 90.
In terms of expected contributions, he's at 0.75 per 90. So this is not Messi at his very best but it's certainly up there.
The only other season where Salah has seen a similar overperformance was his first at Anfield. Otherwise he's been very good, 2021/22 stands out, without ever looking like the best player in the world.
A following wind
At 32 years of age, Salah's performance is as unexpected as it is remarkable.
Typically, once a footballer hits 30 their powers begin to wane. It's a credit to Salah, Liverpool manager Arne Slot and the club's physical performance department that hasn't happened.
The Egyptian has started all 19 Premier League matches, coming off early on just five occasions. He's featured in every UEFA Champions League game, too. Where he has managed to get some rest is in the League Cup, having started none of Liverpool's three matches up to the semi-final.
screenshot taken from the Transfermarkt website
The international breaks have afforded him some time off as well.
Salah hasn't featured for Egypt since 11 October. Having won their first match that month, national team coach Hossam Hassan decided to rest his star player for the second game. Then, with the Pharaohs having secured qualification for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, Salah wasn't selected for the November internationals.
screenshot taken from the Transfermarkt website
The postponement of December's clash with Everton no doubt helped too, giving him a breather during a densely-packed fixture schedule.
Arne's Super Slot Machine
Tweaks to Liverpool's approach have benefitted Salah. He's spending more time in areas of the pitch where he can cause the opposition problems and expending less energy defending.
By almost any measure, his defensive contribution has dropped compared to last season.
Fewer pressures, fewer ball recoveries, reduced defensive actions - the sum of tackles, pressure events and fouls recorded - and aggressive actions - defensive actions within two seconds of an opponent receiving the ball.
And with the volume on the heavy-metal football turned down a notch, there's less space for opponents to exploit when Liverpool lose possession.
The full-backs are not as adventurous. Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.2m) is averaging fewer touches in the opposition half, down from 43.1 per match to 36.6, and Andrew Robertson (£5.9m) has dropped from 2.98 penalty area touches per 90 to 1.76 per 90.
This change in defensive shape has allowed Slot to add an extra body to the attack. Dominik Szoboszlai (£6.3m) or Curtis Jones (£5.3m) have been supporting as a No 10. And, as Danny Murphy observed, they have more players running in behind without the ball, creating space for Salah.
"It is obviously a tactic. It takes willingness from the players, energy and commitment. It pushes the [opposition] defence back and gets Liverpool up the pitch."
- Danny Murphy, Match of the Day
Off the Radar
A glance at Salah's attacking contributions reflects that shift - his touches in the box are up from 8.93 per 90 to 10.11 per 90.
It's also notable that his key passes are down.
To hang this on a "Just So" story, there was a sense last season that Jurgen Klopp was trying to move away from relying on Salah as he entered his 30s. In some matches, we would see Darwin Nunez (£7.0m) and Luis Diaz (£7.6m) as the most advanced attackers. Salah occupied a wider position, playing balls into the box.
In the first half away to Crystal Palace, that's exactly what happened.
Unfortunately, it didn't lead to any goals. So with time running out at Selhurst Park, Darwin was subbed off and Salah moved to a more central position. He promptly scored.
This season, the passing networks highlight just how advanced he is.
Salah 2.0
Salah's role has changed under Slot. He's arriving in the box more frequently, and he's doing less defending so he's fresher when he gets there.
It's tempting to conclude that this explains the improvement in post-shot expected goals - a measure of how well a player is shooting - and in turn, the general overperformance we are witnessing.
But will it continue?
When he's had opportunities to rest, he's rested. Will the calendar carry on affording him breathers or will Liverpool's success invariably mean he ends up playing more?
A Game of Two Halves
He's totalled the 95 points he needs to break the individual season record in six of the last seven campaigns.
The only exception was last year when an injury during AFCON derailed his season. The Nagrig-born footballer racked up 156 points in his 20 matches before departing, but added just 55 points upon his return.
AFCON Heartbreak
With the 2019 edition taking place during the European summer months, the only other time the biennial football championship has impacted his Premier League participation was in 2021/22.
It's a tournament he's never won.
Egypt were champions in all three competitions between 2006 and 2010, before Salah's international debut in 2011. His first AFCON appearance wasn't until 2017.
Perhaps fuelled by a desire to win and cement his legacy, Salah averaged 8.9 points per game across his 20 Fantasy outings ahead of his January departure.
He played every minute of Egypt's run to the final, where they lost on penalties to Sadio Mane's Senegal. Four of their seven matches went to extra time.
screenshot taken from the Transfermarkt website
As a result, he never quite recaptured the form he showed in the early part of the season.
Excluding those two AFCON-affected campaigns, the Egyptian king has averaged 128 points over Liverpool's last 19 fixtures.
Regression to the mean
If Salah can hit his points-per-match averages against his remaining opponents, he will finish on 340 points.
Ipswich Town are excluded from the table below; his 14-point haul in Gameweek 1 was the first time he'd faced the Tractor Boys.
So will he do it?
The odds are stacked in his favour.
He's playing in a system suited to his talents. He's got the track record to suggest that even if he reverts to the mean, he will still comfortably surpass his previous high.
An injury is likely the only thing that could scupper his chances. But we are talking about the most consistent-ever player in Fantasy. Salah has produced 200 points or more for eight consecutive seasons, double the longest run of the next-best player.
Sit back and enjoy the ride - but maybe think twice about giving him the armband against Forest.
4 days, 21 hours agoBring on Tuesday, I need me some FPL!