It’s the north London derby – what does that mean for FPL?

It’s derby time! With the north London derby on Sunday, Spurs fan Sam from FPLFamily previews the match and explains what it might mean for FPL.

Obviously I am hoping for a huge Spurs win this Sunday – it’s the hope that kills you, right? But before I don my uniform (the new home shirt) and prepare for battle, there are the implications on FPL to consider.

And if you know your history…

Historically home advantage has played a big part in the result of the north London derby.

Spurs have won five of the last nine Premier League matches at home. There have been two draws in that time with Arsenal winning twice, including a win last season where Spurs were unlucky not to salvage the draw, especially when Micky van de Ven‘s (£4.5m) late goal was judged to be offside.

Above: North London derbies at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (and Old White Hart Lane)

The last few seasons have seen some standout FPL picks in these fixtures. Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) returned 25 points against Spurs across both games last season. This was more than he returned against any other club. Kai Havertz (£8.1m) also enjoyed his last visit to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with a goal and an assist in the 2-3 victory.

Likewise, Spurs captain Son Heung-min (£10.0m) has registered three goals and an assist in the last four matches between these sides at Spurs. This rises to six goals and an assist in home and away fixtures in the last three seasons. Of course, the now-departed Harry Kane’s legacy in north London derbies will always be remembered fondly by Spurs fans.

Current state of play

Arsenal

Arsenal have started the 2024/25 campaign with two wins and a draw. Meanwhile Spurs have recorded a win, a draw and a defeat. Although they, like I am, will still be wondering how they haven’t won all three of their opening fixtures!

Saka and Havertz have begun the season in excellent form. Havertz has registered two goals and an assist in the opening three fixtures, picking up 22 points. Meanwhile, Saka has returned in all three Premier League matches so far. The Englishman has a goal and three assists to his name and is currently averaging eight points- per match. His 24 points is the fourth-best tally by a midfielder over the opening weeks.

However, Saka is also the most highly sold Arsenal asset heading into the weekend. The Gunners have back-to-back away matches against Spurs and then Manchester City. Mostly as a result of that, over 330,000 managers have offloaded him; he is currently the most-sold midfielder in the game. Over 105,000 of those sellers have moved the midfielder on in favour of Mohamed Salah (£12.7).

The defence have also started the season well with two clean sheets in the opening three. They were looking comfortable defensively until Declan Rice‘s (£6.4m) red card against Brighton and Hove Albion. Were it not for that, they looked set to join Liverpool on three consecutive clean sheets.

Injuries

Martin Odegaard (£8.4m) picked up an ankle injury on international duty for Norway on Monday evening. Pictures of him boarding a private jet back to the UK on crutches have sparked fear.

As such, he is currently the most transferred-out player since the injury. Over 214,000 managers have sold the Arsenal captain since the Gameweek 3 deadline passed. This is ahead of word from Arsenal over the seriousness of the injury and his availability for the weekend.

Odegaard has been vital to Arsenal since the start of last season and would be a big loss to the Gunners.

Above: Odegaard stats since the start of the 2023/24 season

One player we do know will definitely be missing for Arsenal is Rice. The Englishman picked up his first ever Premier League red card in Gameweek 3 and is now suspended for the derby at the weekend. If Odegaard does miss out alongside Rice, this will have ramifications for both Arsenal and FPL managers. It could mean that we see Havertz drop back into midfield, which would displease the 18% of managers who are enjoying owning Havertz as the Arsenal number nine. It could also see Raheem Sterling (£6.8m) get his first start for Arsenal since his summer move from Chelsea.

For the home team, Dominic Solanke (£7.5m) and Van de Ven are expected to be available for Postecoglou to select this weekend. This will be music to the ears of both FPL managers and Spurs fans alike. Just under 8% of managers have held Solanke throughout his injury and will have been disappointed to see him miss out in the last two matches.

Spurs

Spurs have created 36 chances so far this season but with Solanke missing the last two games, they have been wasteful in front of goal.

Spurs are also tied second for attempts on goal this season (48) but their goal conversion rate is down at just 12.5%. Spurs have scored on six occasions but four of those came against Everton in Gameweek 2.

Spurs have also boasted one of the best defences in terms of shots conceded. However, they have still proved leaky with against-the-run-of-play goals against both Newcastle and Leicester.

The positive thing for managers who own one of the Spurs defenders is that we have already had attacking returns for van de Ven, Cristian Romero (£5.0m) and Pedro Porro (£5.5m) this season. This means that even if the clean sheet goes, which always looks likely, there’s always an opportunity for an attacking return with their style of play.

Bench? Hold? Sell?

Many managers may find themselves invested on both sides of north London. When that happens it is difficult to decide what to do with assets. Do you play them against each other? Do you play some and bench others? Or do you look to offload some to remove the headache all together?

The Gunners have six players who are currently owned by over 10% of managers.

Meanwhile, Spurs have just one in Porro.

Both sides are scoring goals, so if you have an attacking player from either side, I’d still be in favour of playing them. The defenders are more contentious. With Porro, Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.0m) and Ben White‘s (£6.5m) attacking threat, I would start them. I personally will be starting Porro on Sunday.

My Arsenal defender is William Saliba (£6.0m). The Frenchman has less of an attacking threat and therefore if the clean sheet goes, he will likely register just two points. So, I will have a decision to make as to whether I start him over Antonee Robinson (£4.6m), who is at home to West Ham United this weekend.

Generally speaking, my view on premium players is that they are in your squad to be played. It feels wrong to bench Saliba, even against my own team, in a game I back us to score in.

I will be playing Saka and Porro and would also be starting the likes of Havertz and Solanke (unless he is ruled out) if I had them. Whilst I understand that it is a desire for the likes of Salah and Erling Haaland (£15.2m) that are driving managers to sell Saka and Havertz, I do think they could punish sellers this weekend.

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