FPL Q&A: Mbeumo replacements, keep or sell Wolves, Trent in?

Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly FPL Q&A ahead of Gameweek 15. The topics include replacements for Bryan Mbeumo (£7.7m) and whether to keep or sell Wolverhampton Wanderers players.

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Q: With a current midfield of Mohamed Salah, Cole Palmer, Bukayo Saka, Bryan Mbeumo and Morgan Rogers, who is the best person to sell Mbeumo to?

(via Brayden29)

A: I think Newcastle United on Saturday is the last chance saloon for Mbeumo. I am reluctant to sell him before a home match.

At the time of writing this article, Fulham v Brighton and Hove Albion is yet to be played. If Kaoru Mitoma (£6.5m) is benched in that one, he is the only player I would consider moving Mbeumo on for. If Mitoma does start vs Fulham, I think there’s the risk of rotation in Gameweek 15 with Brighton having one of the shortest turnarounds with Thursday-Sunday fixtures. 

The Japanese international’s numbers are excellent. No Brighton player has been afforded more big chances than his nine. He is also top for attempted assists (17) and big chances created (four).

The other option would be Jarrod Bowen (£7.4m). The Monday fixture is massive for West Ham United and he was unlucky not to return against Leicester City with an xGI of 1.56. 

Q: I’m looking at Trent Alexander-Arnold in, so who would you sell out of Rico Lewis, Rayan Ait-Nouri or Vitalii Mykolenko?

(via @AmanTalksFPL)

A: I have a similar dilemma; I’m also picking between Jurrien Timber (£5.6m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£6.9m) this week. I’m currently leaning towards Trent, with Timber coming in for the Everton fixture in Gameweek 16, via a Mbeumo downgrade. 

If money is a consideration, then I think all three are expendable really. But if that’s not a concern, I think Vitalii Mykolenko’s (£4.3m) time is up. None of Everton’s next nine fixtures are rated higher than ‘3’ on the Fixture Difficulty Rating on the FPL website, with the next four reading Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City. 

With Rico Lewis (£4.7m), gametime is a risk going forward but the benefit we have is that in Gameweeks 17, 18 and 19, City are the early kick-off – so there is a chance we get early team news. The fixtures then are Aston Villa, Everton and Leicester, with the latter two particularly good for clean sheet prospects.

With Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.9m), you really are hoping just for attacking returns. However, the underlying numbers have been poor: in his last three games, his expected goal involvement (xGI) reads 0.06, 0.08 and 0.01. You would expect West Ham, Ipswich Town and Leicester all to score as well.

Q: Should Morgan Rogers owners be looking to start him at the weekend, over Bryan Mbeumo for example?

(via @alanhooly.bsky.social‬)

A: This is a tricky one. Unai Emery has been talking about the need to give Morgan Rogers (£5.3m) a rest and how he wants to reintegrate Emiliano Buendia (£5.2m) into the first team. Rogers played a large chunk of the game last night against Brentford, with Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) being taken off early.

Villa have now played Sunday (against Chelsea), Wednesday (against Brentford) and now play Saturday (Southampton), with RB Leipzig away in the Champions League on Tuesday. That’s a really short turnaround between games and if I were to guess, Southampton is the game he can really afford to bench Rogers.

That is a pure guess though. The Saints are so leaky defensively: they just registered 5.0+ xGC against Chelsea and if Rogers does start, the potential for a haul is massive. So keeping that in mind, I would start Rogers if possible, but not over Mbeumo. No team has scored more goals at home than Brentford (22). 

Q: Is it time to sell Wolves players?

(via @geoffking_uk)

A: Wolves’ next three opponents, West Ham, Ipswich and Leicester, sit at 17^th, 19^th and 18^th for expected goals conceded (xGC) over the season.

While I can understand selling Ait-Nouri for an Arsenal or Liverpool defender, I would certainly want to keep their attackers for the next three matches.

Q: Best goalkeeper option going ahead? I already own Gabriel Magalhaes + Jurrien Timber.

(via @Hobbes3103)

A: Amongst the cheapies, Robert Sanchez (£4.8m) is probably your best bet given Chelsea’s fixtures but as we saw against Southampton, another midweek league game – which will come again over the festive period – might see the Spaniard dropped. If you have Lukasz Fabianski (£4.1m) as cover, you could risk it but there’s no guarantee Fabianski is still between the sticks for West Ham at the time.

Alisson (£5.4m) is not too far away from a return. Once he’s back, I think that’s your best option. 

Q: Who is the best midfielder for £5.0m or below? Mikkel Damsgaard, Facundo Buonanotte, Enzo Fernandez or someone else?

(via Hairy Potter)

A: Mikkel Damsgaard‘s (£5.0m) fixtures turn for the worse, so you could take a punt on Facundo Buonanotte (£5.0m) for the new manager bounce if you didn’t need him to start in Gameweek 15 (he’s ineligible).

However, I think I would probably go with Enzo Fernandez (£4.9m) if buying now. Over the last six Gameweeks, the Argentinian international has three assists and two goals. He’s been given a lot more license to get forward and isn’t sitting deep in the pivot anymore. 

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