Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Q&A ahead of Gameweek 20. The topics include captaincy, Manchester United assets and what to do with Nicolas Jackson (£8.1m).
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Q: Is it worth doing Luis Diaz (£7.6m) to Bruno Fernandes (£8.3m) for free?
Q: Do you think it’s time to jump on Man United players like Fernandes, Amad Diallo (£5.3m) and even Diogo Dalot (£5.0m) after their performance at Liverpool? They play Southampton at home, then have a decent run of games. Or is there still too much uncertainty around their form?
(via FPLSuarridge and PEP ROULETTE)
A: Admittedly, Man United did look much better than in their previous games but we’ve seen this so often in the past. They lift themselves up for the big games. They also collapse, so it’s difficult to get a read.
Yet I believe that fixtures breed form and their short-term run looks good. Their home games after Southampton are Brighton and Hove Albion, Crystal Palace and Ipswich Town. In between are trips to face Fulham, Tottenham Hotspur and Everton.
With Amad, I think the risk is minimal as he’s still very cheap and he’s made himself part of their front three. Buying him doesn’t require sacrifices in your squad.
It’s a bit tricker with Fernandes, as his price tag could block you from Anthony Gordon (£7.5m), Bryan Mbeumo (£7.8m) or a premium defender. There is also uncertainty about his role – albeit not minutes – which may alternate between being in midfield and higher up. I don’t share the FPL community’s distaste for Bruno: he’s a decent pick with secure minutes and many routes to points.
So if you’re looking to ditch Enzo Fernandez (£5.1m) or Antoine Semenyo (£5.6m) for Amad, I think that’s a great decision with such upcoming fixtures.
I like moving Diaz to Fernandes because there is simply too much rotation in Liverpool’s attacking positions now that Diogo Jota (£7.2m) is around, as we saw in Wednesday’s Carabao Cup clash. Cody Gakpo (£7.3m) looks to have the left-wing spot but that could change weekly. It’s a headache not worth having.
Q: Is this a week to go against Mohamed Salah (£13.7m) as captain, or will Nottingham Forest struggle like they did against Newcastle United and Arsenal?
(via HAIRY POTTER)
A: We are 20 Gameweeks into the season and need to accept that Forest are the real deal. Just four matches have been lost and their defensive numbers are elite, bettered by only Arsenal and Liverpool for non-penalty expected goals conceded (NPxGC, 20.92), while no side has conceded fewer big chances (26). Based on data and recent performances, Arne Slot’s lot won’t find it easy.
The flip side is that Salah’s numbers in away games have been incredible. Of his 209 points, 122 have come on the road, averaging 13.6 each time. That is just staggering. The Egyptian can never be a bad captaincy pick, though I do think Nuno Espirito Santo’s side will set up very defensively and play on the counter, lowering his ceiling for points.
So there are two other candidates I’m looking at – Alexander Isak (£9.3m) and Cole Palmer (£11.4m). Howe mentioned that Isak felt a niggle during the EFL Cup semi-final and will likely sit out FA Cup action, which bodes well for his minutes against Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Newcastle United’s attacking numbers over the last six matches are very impressive. They rank second for goals (17), non-penalty expected goals (NPxG, 14.80) and big chances (25). Additionally, no player has registered a higher NPxG over this period than Isak (6.61).
Meanwhile, Chelsea’s numbers have dipped. Their sixth-placed NPxG (9.02) is some way behind Newcastle’s and they’ve scored just eight times (12th). Palmer has still been in the points and remains their talisman but his underlying goal threat numbers are poor. 1.08 NPxG is bettered by the likes of Bruno Guimaraes (£6.1m) and Alexis Mac Allister (£6.2m).
Based on that, you’d have to say Isak beats Palmer for both team and individual form.
Looking at opponents, Wolves (7.00) and Bournemouth (7.14) both sit within the best half-dozen for NPxGC during these six matches. Even so, I think Wolves’ numbers are flattered by the low quality of recent foes Leicester City, West Ham United, Ipswich and 10-man Man United.
Whereas the Cherries’ numbers are more consistent over the half-season, ranking sixth for NPxGC (24.15) and gaining a reputation for being tricky adversaries. Therefore, Isak has the edge here too.
For the armband, I think you can take on Salah this week and Isak is my preferred option.
Q: What are your thoughts on a Newcastle double or triple-up? Last week I brought Gordon and this week I’m thinking of adding Lewis Hall (£4.9m) because I really like their next four fixtures. I have my Free Hit in case they blank in Gameweek 29.
Q: Given the massive praise Eddie Howe has lavished on Dan Burn (£4.4m), which three will he prefer out of him, Hall, Sven Botman (£4.4m) and Fabian Schar (£5.4m)?
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3 days, 12 hours agoShameless repost
Suggestions or advice here? Dropped from 60k to 300k since gw15. I’m pretty happy with the team I guess but I’m still tempted to WC. I’d drop Arsenal defence, sort front 3, get 3x pool and 1-2 Everton. Currently just thinking Diaz to Bruno.
Raya
Timber, Robinson, Mazraoui
Salah, Palmer, Diaz, Gordon, Sarr
Isak, Jackson
Vald, Pedro, Davis, Lewis 1ft 1.5itb
Thank you