Rounding off our Saturday Scout Notes, we reflect on a shock result at Anfield and a last-ditch escape act from West Ham United.
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SLOT’S FIRST SETBACK
The honeymoon period had to come to an end eventually. Liverpool’s 100% record went, as did their run without conceding a goal.
Arne Slot’s keep-ball approach resulted in almost 69% of possession but, for the first time in 2024/25, a shortage of gilt-edged chances. Just 0.94 xG was mustered by the hosts on Merseyside.
Slot tried changing it. A triple substitution on the hour. Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.0m) in midfield. Three at the back. None of it had much of an effect.
The Dutchman’s quote below summed it up:
“This is a different game than the ones we’ve played until now because we faced a low block, the team we faced played really low and as a result of that we had a lot of ball possession but we were not able to create a lot.” – Arne Slot
Forest showed other sides the blueprint; the Liverpool manager’s next task is figuring out how patient Slotball can overcome parked buses.
There are reasons to be cheerful, though.
On another day, even with the flat attacking display, Liverpool would still have won. Diogo Jota (£7.6m) could only bundle a big chance into Matz Sels’ (£4.5m) arms. Luis Diaz (£7.7m) hit the post. Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) jinked and fired into the Belgian keeper’s midriff from a position he’s scored from umpteen times before. Alexis Mac Allister (£6.4m) drew a superb save with a header.
Alexander-Arnold teed up that Mac Allister chance and three others, also seeing two of his corners almost find the net without touching another Liverpool shirt. He’s been desperately unlucky not to deliver an attacking return yet, as the division’s biggest underachiever on the NPxGI front:
Above: Premier League players sorted by worst non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) delta in 2024/25
Another reason to be positive is that Gameweek 5 opponents Bournemouth are very much not a low-block side: they’re second in the table for pressures in the opposition half.
Jota and Diaz being hooked on the hour wasn’t great for their owners; perhaps international exertions were a factor, especially in Diaz’s case. Tuesday’s teamsheet against AC Milan may give us more clues for next weekend.
FOREST’S MEAN DEFENCE
Above: Premier League teams sorted by non-penalty xG conceded (per 90 minutes) since Nuno Espirito Santo took charge of Nottingham Forest
All credit to Forest, though.
We hailed their underlying defensive numbers under Nuno Espirito Santo in the summer, although they often failed to materialise into clean sheets.
Concerns over the Tricky Trees’ goalkeepers still persist, with Sels almost conceding a ludicrous own-goal out of nothing in this game. He was, at least, otherwise solid at Anfield.
Tactically, it was excellent from Nuno. A defensive 4-2-3-1 set-up was used, with attack-minded wingers Anthony Elanga (£5.3m) and Callum Hudson-Odoi (£5.4m) brought on later against tiring legs. The two combined for the game’s only goal.
Nikola Milenkovic (£4.5m) looks superb at centre-half, while loanee Alex Moreno (£4.4m) helped pocket Salah.
Brighton and Hove Albion’s Gameweek 5 fixture may appear ‘blue’ on the Season Ticker but it does the Forest defence, at the very least, a disservice.
One bit of noteworthy team news: Ibrahim Sangare, the second-most-owned £4.5m midfielder in FPL, is set for at least two months out.
MUNIZ BENCHED
A Fulham forward scored on Saturday – but the wrong one for 7.1% of Fantasy managers.
Rodrigo Muniz (£6.1m) owners not only saw the five-month goal drought continue but also their Brazilian forward benched.
In came Raul Jimenez (£5.4m), who took just 24 minutes to show Muniz where the goal was. Emile Smith Rowe (£5.7m) supplied the assist.
The post-match media interviews we’ve seen with Marco Silva failed to shed any light on the reasons behind Muniz’s benching. One goal from his last 35 shots in the box might have something to do with it.
Raul’s goal now, of course, means that a Gameweek 5 recall for Muniz looks in some doubt.
Silva kept faith with both Andreas Pereira (£5.4m) and Smith Rowe in midfield. The latter almost added a goal to his assist, seeing a shot blocked by teammate Raul.
A cut-price Adama Traore (£5.0m) started again, too. The underlying numbers are eye-catching: of Fulham’s squad, no one can better his 11 shots, three big chances or 20 penalty area touches. Only the corner-taking Pereira has created more chances.
After the returns of Gameweeks 2 and 3, ‘old’ Adama returned as the end product went missing. Two half-decent headed chances went begging, as did a one-on-one opportunity in which he hit the deck. Still, for a £5.0m midfielder, he’s looking threatening.
Joachim Andersen (£4.4m) made his first start and immediately settled the back four, especially in possession. Were it not for a late lapse in concentration from the Cottagers, he’d have been toasting a clean sheet.
BOWEN TICKS OVER
That clean sheet bust came in the 95th minute, with substitute Danny Ings (£5.0m) taking advantage of Fulham’s slow response to a quickly taken throw.
Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m) claimed the assist: that’s now three attacking returns in four matches for him.
We saw him up front in the second half, too, with Michail Antonio (£5.5m) hooked at half-time and Niclas Fullkrug (£6.8m) injured. Bowen almost drew the Hammers level with a big chance of his own, a 59th-minute effort smothered by Bernd Leno (£5.0m).
That was pretty much West Ham’s only serious effort until Ings’ late leveller. The visitors had an xG of 0.50 heading into second-half injury time, half of which was Bowen’s strike.
It all sounds a bit… David Moyes. The Lopetegui revolution is still in its early days, of course, but then again the Spaniard has never really been a proponent of gung-ho football, either.
On the injury front, the Hammers will have to make a check on Emerson Palmieri (£4.5m) after the left-back hobbled off after 57 minutes.
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